O PROJETO PIRATA & sua importância para a previsão climática regional. Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE...

O PROJETO PIRATAO PROJETO PIRATA & sua importância para a & sua importância para a

previsão climática regional.previsão climática regional.

Paulo NobrePaulo Nobre

CPTEC/INPECPTEC/INPEIIIX Reunião de Análise Climática do Nordeste/2003IIIX Reunião de Análise Climática do Nordeste/2003

Recife, 4-5 de setembro de 2003Recife, 4-5 de setembro de 2003Paulo NobrePaulo NobreCPTEC/INPECPTEC/INPE

X-ISABP Arraial do Cabo, RJX-ISABP Arraial do Cabo, RJ23 August 200423 August 2004

The PIRATA Rational

• To provide a better description of the two main modes of Tropical Atlantic SST variability, namely the:– Equatorial mode: [interannual]– Meridional mode: [decadal]

The PIRATA PROJECTThe PIRATA PROJECT

FranceFranceIRDIRD

BrazilBrazilINPE/DHNINPE/DHN

USAUSANOAANOAA

19951995

Fortaleza

19961996

Natal

1997

1st BuoyMoored

2001

MOU

2003

PIRATABRAZIL

2004

PPA

2005

SWESWE

THE PIRATA BACKBONE

PIRATA BRAZILPIRATA BRAZIL

CPTEC/INPE

Satellite & Coupled O-A Modeling

DHN/CHN

Marine Operations

IO/USP

Education andTraining

FUNCEME

Applications

Marine Operations

PIRATA SATELLITE DATA PIRATA SATELLITE DATA RELAYRELAY

PIRATA buoy data available on near-real time on the Internet:

12N 38W 0N 23W

AUG 23, 2004

TEMPERATURE SOLAR RADIATION

Solar Radiation Estimates

PIRATA 8N-38W

GO

ES

PIRATA 8N-38W

GO

ES

0.04 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution

Buoy Data Received at CPTEC from GTS within a 24h period.

PIRATA BACKBONE & SW EXTENSION

Background Map: Long term mean No. SST observations/month (COADS)

PIRATA ARRAY

PIRATA SWE

Objectives

• Improving knowledge of ocean-atmospheric interactions over the tropical South Atlantic toward generating skillful SST predictions– Modeling effort to improve coupled o-a

models and forecasting tools– Enhancing oceanographic and meteorological

observational infrastructure over the tropical South Atlantic

Mechanisms to be studied

• SITCZ-Cold Tong Complex (Grodsky and Carton, 2002)

• Western Atlantic Warm Pool (Huang and Carton, 1995)

• Eastern Nordeste seasonal rainfall predictability (Rao and Lima, 1993)

• SACZ-SST feedback processes (Chaves and Nobre, 2004; Barreiro and Chang, 2003)

An enhanced observational network over the SW Atlantic:

Benefits

• Both satellite altimetry and tide gauges measurements along the coast and islands are necessary for an effective monitoring of mean sea level.

• T-S vertical profiles are needed to estimate the amount of heat stored on the upper ocean.

Density Anomaly Advection by the South Equatorial Current

SITCZ(Grodsky and Carton, 2002)

SACZSACZ & SSTA : & SSTA : ObservationsObservations17-25 NOVEMBER 199917-25 NOVEMBER 1999

Nobre et al. (2002)

Source regions of Subtropical-Tropical Cell waters

From: Hazeleger et al. (2003)

Anomaly Correlation:

NordesteDry Spells Duration &

SST

Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 200426 March 2004

CPTEC’s Ocean-Atmosphere coupled model suite

CPTEC’s Ocean-Atmosphere coupled model suite

Forced Spin upForced Spin up

AGCM

OGCM

SST

TauHeat

IC

Coupled ForecastCoupled Forecast

AtmosFCST

daily/hourly

SFCfluxes

SST

OGCM

AGCM

daily

Coupled GCM for Weather Prediction: The Catarina Phenomenon

Will extreme events become more frequent in a warmer

climate?

Ventos & Correntes PIRATA

Equatorial Undercurrent Simulation at CPTEC

PERSISTENCE MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILL

Repelli and Nobre (2004)

SIMOC MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILL

Repelli and Nobre (2004)

SIMOC SSTA FORECAST SKILLN

orth

Atla

ntic

Sou

th A

tlant

ic

NOVEMBER DECEMBER

Repelli and Nobre (2004)

Nobre et al. (2002)

Chaves (2003)

WARM-COLD SST OGCM EXPERIMENTS

CPTEC’s Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere model suite