21
1 DP0904 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos José Armando Campos CST 2 nd nd International Meeting on Ironmaking International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st st International Symposium on Iron Ore International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13 Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13 th th , 2004 , 2004 ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABM ABM

DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

1DP0904

COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃOCOMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO

José Armando CamposJosé Armando CamposCST

22ndnd International Meeting on Ironmaking International Meeting on Ironmaking11st st International Symposium on Iron OreInternational Symposium on Iron Ore

Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13 thth, 2004, 2004

ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABMASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABM

Page 2: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

2DP0904

Source: Average Market Expectations – BACEN, as of July 30, 2004

GDP - PROJECTIONSGDP - PROJECTIONS

Sector 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Industrial -1.00 4.73 3.66 4.02 3.97

Agricultural 5.00 4.85 4.11 4.22 4.21

Services -0.10 2.45 2.57 3.08 3.28

Total -0.20 3.72 3.53 3.74 3.71

%

Page 3: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

3DP0904

1,9

-0,2

3,73,5

3,7 3,7 3,8

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: Market Average Expectations – BACEN, as of July 30, 2004

The variation of 4.2% in the 1H04/1H03, shows that it is possible to have, in 2004, an economic growth greater than the projected number.

The dynamic recently generated in the industry will make the 2005 growth larger than the projected number due to a greater carry-over

%

GDP - PROJECTIONSGDP - PROJECTIONS

Page 4: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

4DP0904

Source: IBGE, Anfavea, others

• Greatest 1st semester growth since 2000.

• Growth in all sectors.

• In terms of demand the biggest growth were in exports, which had a 17.8% increase. The indirect steel exports increased 33.5% (1H04/1H03).

• Automobile production in the 1st semester went up by 15% compared to the same period in 2003.

ECONOMY – 1st Semester 2004ECONOMY – 1st Semester 2004

Agriculture + 5.7 %

Industry + 4.2 %

Services + 2.8 %

GDP + 4.2%

Sectors Sub-Sectors

COMPARED TO THE 1ST SEMESTER 2003COMPARED TO THE 1ST SEMESTER 2003

Transformation + 7.3%

+ 2.0 %Construction

+ 2.0 %

Mineral Extraction - 2.9 %

Industrial ServicesPublic Services

Page 5: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

5DP0904

Source: IBGE, others

• It was the greatest GDP growth (5.7%) since the 3rd quarter of 1996.

• The Industrial Sector grew 6.6%.

• The Sub-sector Transformation Industry had the highest growth rate pushed by:

ECONOMY – 2nd Quarter 2004ECONOMY – 2nd Quarter 2004

- durable goods – highlight to automotive vehicles

- capital goods – highlight to machines and equipment

RESUMING OF INVESTIMENTS (growth of 11.7%)

•The Construction Sector grew 6.7%, after 5 successive quarters in decrease.

COMPARED TO THE 2ND QUARTER 2003COMPARED TO THE 2ND QUARTER 2003

Page 6: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

6DP0904

Source: IBGE

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

(January 2003 = 100)(January 2003 = 100)

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

110,0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Page 7: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

7DP0904

% CAPACITY UTILIZATION% CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRY - GENERALINDUSTRY - GENERAL

70,0

75,0

80,0

85,0

90,0

82,2CNI

Page 8: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

8DP0904Fonte: Instituto Brasileiro de Siderurgia – IBS

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Ind

ex N

um

ber

: 19

90=

100 Steel Consumption

4.7% per year

2.3% per year

Elasticity - Income 2.1

GDP

STEEL CONSUMPTION x GDPSTEEL CONSUMPTION x GDP

Page 9: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

9DP0904

32,2 32,1 31,2 32,2 32,9

29,0

21,319,7

21,1 21,0 21,0

24,5

15,5 15,2

18,0

20,5 19,6 19,6

7,7 8,1 7,1 7,6 8,06,9

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

EVOLUTION OF THE PARTICIPATION OF THE MAIN FINAL CONSUMER SECTORS EVOLUTION OF THE PARTICIPATION OF THE MAIN FINAL CONSUMER SECTORS

APPARENT CONSUMPTIONAPPARENT CONSUMPTION

Source: IBS

Construction Industry

Automotive Industry

Capital Goods, Machines and Equipment (incl. Agricultural)

Household and Commercial Appliances

%

Page 10: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

10DP0904

DOMESTIC SALESDOMESTIC SALES

Source: IBS

January ~ June total domestic sales when comparing 04/03 shows an increase of 11% (flat and long).

2002 2003 2004 04/02 04/03

Automotive Industry 449.393 456.534 612.445 36,3 34,2Auto Parts 498.106 551.482 671.683 34,8 21,8Shipbuilding 23.799 15.376 56.892 139,1 270,0Agricultural and Highway Machinery 102.918 132.501 168.057 63,3 26,8Construction Industry 485.431 479.301 532.851 9,8 11,2Household and Commercial Appliances 238.905 228.317 274.989 15,1 20,4

SectoresJanuary - July (tonnes) Variation (%)

Page 11: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

11DP0904

EXPORTSEXPORTS

Source: IBS

Exports reached 7.5 mt between January and July 2004; 4.5% greater than the same period in 2003.

Between January and July/2004 semi-finished products represented 52% of our exports, flat products 28%, long products 15% and others 5%.

2003 2004Jan ~ July

Asia45.5%

North Am.21.6%

Latin Am.19.0%

Europe10.4%

* 3.5%

Asia36.1%

North Am. 25.6%

Latin Am.23.4%

Europe10.7%

* 4.2%

(*) Middle East, Africa, Oceania

Page 12: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

12DP0904

Steel exports currently represent 42% of total production of finished and semi-finished products. About 55% of the exports correspond to semi-finished products.Finished products exports surpass the level of 5.5 million tons/year for nearly all types of products.

EXPORTSEXPORTS

Page 13: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

13DP0904

DOMESTIC STEEL DEMAND - FORECASTDOMESTIC STEEL DEMAND - FORECAST

GDP projection scenarios applied to the equation resulting from the regression analysis give the following demands for steel products:

7,2 7,3 7,7

9,18,3 7,9

9,3 9,7 9,5 9,810,7

11,512,5

13,614,8

4,9 4,75,3

6,3 6,2 6,2 6,5 7,0 7,06,1 6,6 7,0

7,68,1

8,7

12,1 12,013,0

15,314,5 14,1

15,816,7 16,5 16,0

17,218,6

20,1

21,723,5

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

mt

Source: IBS

Flat ProductsLong ProductsTotal

PROJECTION

Page 14: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

14DP0904

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45000’ tones

1970 19751980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Capacity

Consumption

36,134,734,1

32,9

28,929,928,3

22,3

6,0

25,026,225,1

20,5

5,4

26,7

19,118,5

15,617,0

13,312,0

5,5

Projection

Production

17,720,6

22,224,0

26,0

38,7 39,843,9

31,1

Note: Does not include the new plants in the Northeast planned for export.

CAPACITY x PRODUCTION x APPARENT CONSUMPTIONCAPACITY x PRODUCTION x APPARENT CONSUMPTION

The present investment program will allow the sector to meet growth demands as well as to keep exports.

EVOLUTION AND PRODUCTIONEVOLUTION AND PRODUCTION

CRUDE STEELCRUDE STEEL

33,0

Page 15: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

15DP0904

Investment projects in the sector show a commitment to the internal market by meeting the increase in demand

US$ 7.4 bi shall be invested between 2004 and 2008

Installed capacity will increase from 34 to 44 million t/year

Average annual forecast growth of the internal demand for steel between

1.2 and 1.4 million tons of products.

Production capacity in the sector will remain above the internal demand for

all types of products.

INVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS

Page 16: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

16DP0904

Own Resources50.6%

PROGRAMMED INVESTMENTSPROGRAMMED INVESTMENTS

1.5111.733

2.137

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1.533

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

101066US$US$

501

PROGRAM 2004/2008 INSTALLED COMPANIES

Source: IBS

Domestic Currency24.6%

Foreign Currency24.8%

SOURCE OF THE INVESTMENTS

Total: US$ 7.4 billion

Page 17: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

17DP0904

US$ billion

Projection 2004 ~2008 – US$ 7.4 billion

Source: IBS

FlatProducts

LongProducts

Specials Steel

3.1

3.6

0.7

7.4

Sectors

INVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS

Source: IBS

Reduction25.9%

Rolling12.6%

Steelmaking7.8%

Other18.0%

Raw Materials Treatment

and Energy24.5%

Casting6.5%

(*) Environment = 2,5%(**) Modernization/Automation/Research = 2,2%

Applications

* **

Page 18: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

18DP0904

INVESTMENTS IN THE REDUCTION AREAINVESTMENTS IN THE REDUCTION AREA

EVOLUTION OF THE PROJECTED INSTALLED CAPACITY EVOLUTION OF THE PROJECTED INSTALLED CAPACITY

7,0 7,0 7,0

22,923,6 23,6

24,4 24,9 24,9

19,2 19,5 19,6

23,124,0

24,7

7,08,6 9,1 9,1

7,57,57,05,0

15,0

25,0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Blast Furnaces

Sinter Plants

Coke Plants

SOL included

mt

Source: IBS

Page 19: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

19DP0904

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Private ControlState ControlUS$ million

Investments in Brazilian Steel Industry

Source: IBS

INVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS

Projection+ US$ 7.4 bi

US$ 13.0 bi

Page 20: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

20DP0904

Prices Variation – R$/t(Base January 2002 = 100)

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

jan/0

2

mar

/02

may

/02

jul/0

2

sept

/02

nov/0

2

jan/0

3

mar

/03

may

/03

jul/0

3

sept

/03

nov/0

3

jan/0

4

mar

/04

may

/04

Scrap

Iron Ore

IGP-M

Pig Iron

Electric Power

jun/0

4

PRICES – RAW MATERIALS x INFLATIONPRICES – RAW MATERIALS x INFLATION

Page 21: DP0904 1 COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO José Armando Campos CST 2 nd International Meeting on Ironmaking 1 st International Symposium on Iron Ore Vitória/ES

21DP0904

COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃOCOMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO

José Armando CamposJosé Armando CamposCST

22ndnd International Meeting on Ironmaking International Meeting on Ironmaking11st st International Symposium on Iron OreInternational Symposium on Iron Ore

Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13 thth, 2004, 2004

ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABMASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABM