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da integração europeia – o caso português

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JEL Codes5!?VVW!/98W!/9RW!/JJW!@J8

estudos regionais | nº 24

42

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43

imigração e comércio internacional no contexto da integração europeia – o caso português

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p&'C!)$Z #+(!*$#)*!O1&!O1*#)+!+!=&(+!)+(!<*0-+'&(!Stay – Stay-Away!D!4*$(!<+'-&!O1&!+!)+(!Push-Pull!&#-F+!*!4$C'*EF+!$#-&'#*0$+#*2!#F+!(&'S!

($C#$]0*-$%*!&!%$0& %&'(*>

45


2.2 Consequências

P! &I$(-e#0$*! )&! 4$C'*EF+! $4=2$0*! 0+#(&O1e#0$*(!

O1&'! #+! =*G(! +'$C&4! O1&'! #+! =*G(! )&(-$#+! *! %S'$+(!

#G%&$(4>!L+!0&'#&!)&(-&!-'*A*2T+!&(-S!*!'&2*EF+!&#-'&!

*!4$C'*EF+!$#-&'#*0$+#*2!&!+!0+4D'0$+!$#-&'#*0$+#*2>!

P! 2$-&'*-1'*! '&%&2*! *! &I$(-e#0$*! )&! 14! 0+#B1#-+!

)&!&(-1)+(!O1&!*%*2$*4!+! $4=*0-+!O1&!*! $4$C'*EF+!

-&4!#+!0+4D'0$+!)+!=*G(!)&!*0+2T$4&#-+!0+4!+!=*G(!

)&! +'$C&4H! T*%&#)+! #+! &#-*#-+! $#0&'-&Z*! O1*#-+! f!

4*C#$-1)&!)&((&!$4=*0-+>

,*'*! +(! 3(-*)+(! "#$)+(5! `+12)! a9QQ8b! 0+4! +!

+AB&0-$%+! )&! ='+%*'! (&! *! 2$C*EF+! )+(! $4$C'*#-&(! *+!

'&(=&0-$%+!=*G(!)&!+'$C&4!4&2T+'*!+!0+4D'0$+!A$2*-&'*2!

&#-'&!&((&!=*G(!&!+!=*G(! '&0&=-+'H!1(+1!)*)+(!=*'*!

+(!3"P!&!8:!=*'0&$'+(!0+4&'0$*$(H!&!0+#021$1!O1&!*!

$4$C'*EF+!-&4!4*$+'!$4=*0-+!#+!0+4D'0$+!)&!='+)1-+(!

)&!0+#(14+!)+!O1&!&4!='+)1-+(!$#-&'4D)$+(!&!O1&H!

&4!C&'*2H!*(!&I=+'-*EN&(!(F+!4*$(!$#l1&#0$*)*(!=&2*!

$4$C'*EF+! )+! O1&! *(! $4=+'-*EN&(W! M1#)'*! aJ66Rb!

+A(&'%*!+(!&<&$-+(!)*!$4$C'*EF+!#+(!l1I+(!0+4&'0$*$(!

)+(!3"PH!&!0+4!)*)+(!=*'*!&(-&!=*G(!&!8:!=*'0&$'+(!

0+4&'0$*$(! 0+#021$! O1&! $4$C'*#-&(! )&! )$<&'&#-&(!

=*G(&(!$4=2$0*4!)$<&'&#-&(!4*C#$-1)&(!#+(!&<&$-+(!)*!

$4$C'*EF+!#+!0+4D'0$+H!(*2$&#-*#)+!14!&<&$-+!=+($-$%+!

&4!-+)*(!*(!$4=+'-*EN&(!&!#*(!&I=+'-*EN&(!)&!A&#(!

]#*$(H! &! )&4+#(-'*! O1&! +(! $4$C'*#-&(! 0+#-'$A1&4!

=*'*!+!0+4D'0$+!A$2*-&'*2!)+(!3"P!&4!A&#(!]#*$(H!=+'!

-'*Z&'&4!$#<+'4*EN&(!(+A'&!+(!4&'0*)+(!&!0+#-*0-+(!

)+(! (&1(! =*G(&(! )&! +'$C&4W! cT$-&! aJ667b! 0+4! +!

+AB&0-$%+! )&! &(-1)*'! +(! )&-&'4$#*#-&(! )+! 0+4D'0$+!

$#-'* $#)k(-'$*! &! +(! &<&$-+(! )*! $4$C'*EF+! #+(! l1I+(!

0+4&'0$*$(! 1(*! )*)+(! =*'*! +(! 3"P! &! nJ! =*'0&$'+(!

0+4&'0$*$(H!0+#021$#)+!O1&!14!*14&#-+!)&!96o!#+!

(-+0K!)&!$4$C'*#-&(!$4=2$0*!14!*14&#-+!#+!0+4D'0$+!

$#-'* $#)k(-'$*! '&2*-$%*4&#-&! *+! $#-&' $#)k(-'$*! &#-'&!

6H8Vo!&!JH9oH!&!O1&!14!*14&#-+!)&!96o!#+!(-+0K!

)&! $4$C'*#-&(! D! &(-$4*)+! O1&! %&#T*! *! *14&#-*'! *!

=&'0&#-*C&4!)&!0+4D'0$+! $#-'* $#)k(-'$*!%&'-$0*2!&4!

JHVo!&!*14&#-*'!*!=&'0&#-*C&4!)&!0+4D'0$+! $#-'*

$#)k(-'$*!T+'$Z+#-*2!&4!VHRo>

L+! 0+#-&I-+! )*! @?m3H! d&[&'! aJ668b! &(-1)*! *!

2$C*EF+! &#-'&! +(! l1I+(! 4$C'*-U'$+(! &! )&! 0+4D'0$+!

$#-&'#*0$+#*2!A$2*-&'*2!1(*#)+!)*)+(!=*'*!9n!=*G(&(!

)*!@?m3!&!0T&C*!f!0+#021(F+!O1&!14!*14&#-+!)&!

96o! #*! =&'0&#-*C&4! )&! $4$C'*#-&(! #*! =+=12*EF+!

$4=2$0*! 14! *14&#-+! #+! 0+4D'0$+! A$2*-&'*2! )+! =*G(!

+'$C&4!=*'*!+!=*G(!)&(-$#+!#*!+')&4!)+(!6H68o>

,*'*! +! ?*#*)S! c*C#&'! et al.! aJ66Jb! &(-1)*4! *!

2$C*EF+!&#-'&!*!$4$C'*EF+!&!0+4D'0$+H!1(*#)+!)*)+(!

=*'*!R!'&C$N&(!)+!?*#*)*!&!9n6!=*'0&$'+(!0+4&'0$*$(!

+A-&#)+!*(!0+#021(N&(!)&!O1&!*!*((+0$*EF+!=+($-$%*!

&#-'&! 4$C'*EF+! &! 0+4D'0$+! $#-&'#*0$+#*2! D! '+A1(-*!

=*'*! )$<&'&#-&(! *4+(-'*(! &!4D-+)+(! &0+#+4D-'$0+(!

&! O1&! *! 4*C#$-1)&! )+(! &<&$-+(! )*! $4$C'*EF+! %*'$*!

0+#(+*#-&!*!*4+(-'*H!C'1=+!)&!$4$C'*#-&(!&!='+)1-+(>

L+! (&1! &(-1)+! =*'*! +! r&$#+! "#$)+! `$'4*! &! y1!

aJ66Jb!-e4!+!+AB&0-$%+!)&!-&(-*'!*!'+A1(-&Z!)+(!&<&$-+(!

)*! $4$C'*EF+! #+! 0+4D'0$+! $#-&'#*0$+#*2! #+! r&$#+!

"#$)+! &! $)&#-$]0*'! +! 4&0*#$(4+! (1AB*0&#-&! *! -*2!

2$C*EF+!&!=*'*!-*2!1(*4!)*)+(!=*'*!+!r&$#+!"#$)+!&!

87!=*'0&$'+(!0+4&'0$*$(>!P(!(1*(!0+#021(N&(!$#)$0*4!

O1&!*(!&I=+'-*EN&(!)+!r&$#+!"#$)+!&(-F+!<+'-&4&#-&!

'&2*0$+#*)*(! 0+4! +! (-+0K! )&! $4$C'*#-&(! +'$1#)+(!

)&! =*G(&(! #F+! =&'-&#0&#-&(! f! ?+44+#[&*2-T! &!

O1&! *! 2$C*EF+! 4$C'*EF+ 0+4D'0$+! D! &(-*A&2&0$)*!

='$#0$=*24&#-&! =&2*(! $#<+'4*EN&(! -'*Z$)*(! =&2+(!

$4$C'*#-&(!)+!(&1!=*G(!+'$C&4>

,*'*!,+'-1C*2!/*1(-$#+!&!d&$-F+!aJ667*!&!J667Ab!

&! /*1(-$#+! &! ,&$I+-+! aJ66Qb! -&(-*4! +! $4=*0-+! )*!

$4$C'*EF+!#+!0+4D'0$+! $#-'* $#)k(-'$*!&!#+!0+4D'0$+!

A$2*-&'*2! =+'-1C1e(>! /*1(-$#+! &! d&$-F+! aJ667*! &!

J667Ab! 1(*4! )*)+(! =*'*! ,+'-1C*2! &! =*'*! +(! (&1(!

=*'0&$'+(!0+4&'0$*$(!)*!"3 9RH!&!/*1(-$#+!&!,&$I+-+!

aJ66Qb! )*)+(! =*'*! +(! ='$#0$=*$(! =*G(&(! )&! +'$C&4!

)+(! $4$C'*#-&(>! P4A+(! 0+#021&4! O1&! *! $4$C'*EF+!

2&%*! *+! *14&#-+! )+! 0+4D'0$+! =+'-1C1e(H! O1&'! #*(!

$4=+'-*EN&(!O1&'!#*(!&I=+'-*EN&(>

4 _&'!p+'B*(!a9QQ8b


46

L+!O1&!)$Z!'&(=&$-+!f!'&2*EF+!$4$C'*EF+! !0+4D'0$+!

$#-&'#*0$+#*2H!0+4+!'&<&'&!`+12)!a9QQ8bH!*(!2$C*EN&(!

)+(!$4$C'*#-&(!*+!(&1!=*G(!)&!+'$C&4!$#l1&#0$*4!+(!

l1I+(!)&!0+4D'0$+!A$2*-&'*2!=+'!)1*(!%$*(5!

i. @(! $4$C'*#-&(! -'*Z&4! 0+#($C+! *! ='&<&'e#0$*!

=&2+(!='+)1-+(!)+!(&1!=*G(!#*-*2H!+!O1&!(1C&'&!O1&H!

#F+! &(-*#)+! )$(=+#G%&$(! #&4! T*%&#)+! (1A(-$-1-+(H!

+!0+#(14+!)&(-&(!='+)1-+(!2&%*!*!14!*14&#-+!)*(!

$4=+'-*EN&(! )&(-&(! #+! =*G(! )&! *0+2T$4&#-+! a%$*!

='&<&'e#0$*(b>!

ii. @(! $4$C'*#-&(! -'*Z&4! 0+#($C+! 0+#T&0$4&#-+(H!

$#<+'4*EN&(! &! 0+#-*0-+(! )&! 4&'0*)+(! &(-'*#C&$'+(!

O1&! =+)&4! 2&%*'! *! 14*! )$4$#1$EF+! )+(! 01(-+(! )&!

-'*#(*0EF+!0+4!&((&(!4&'0*)+(!a0+4+!*(!A*''&$'*(!

2$#C1G(-$0*(H! 01(-+(! &4! +A-&'! $#<+'4*EF+! (+A'&! *(!

='&<&'e#0$*(! )+(! 0+#(14$)+'&(! &! &4! &(-*A&2&0&'!

0+#-*0-+(! )&! 0+#]*#E*! =*'*! )&(&#%+2%&'! *0+')+(!

0+4&'0$*$(bH! +! O1&! (1C&'&! 14! *14&#-+! )+(! l1I+(!

)&! $4=+'-*EF+! &t+1! &I=+'-*EF+! &#-'&! +! =*G(! )&!

*0+2T$4&#-+!&!+!=*G(!)&!+'$C&4!)+(! $4$C'*#-&(! a%$*!

'&)1EF+!)&!01(-+(!)&!-'*#(*0EF+b>!

`+12)!a9QQ8b!'&<&'&!*$#)*!*!'&(=&$-+!)*!%$*!'&)1EF+!

)&! 01(-+(! )&! -'*#(*0EF+H! O1&! *(! $#<+'4*EN&(! &!

0+#T&0$4&#-+(!-'*Z$)+(!=&2+(! $4$C'*#-&(!=+)&4!(&'!

4*$(!'&2&%*#-&(!=*'*!+(!A&#(!]#*$(!)+!O1&!=*'*!+(!

A&#(!$#-&'4D)$+(H!%$(-+!O1&!+(!='$4&$'+(!-&#)&4!*!(&'!

4*$(!)$<&'&#0$*)+(!=&2+(!=*G(&(>!w1*#)+!+(!='+)1-+(!

(F+! T+4+CD#&+(! #F+! TS! C'*#)&(! 4+-$%+(! =*'*!

='&<&'$'!='+)1-+(!)&!14!=*G(!&(=&0G]0+H!#+!&#-*#-+H!

O1*#)+!+(!='+)1-+(!(F+!)$<&'&#0$*)+(H!&(-&(!=+)&4!

#F+!&I$(-$'!#+!=*G(!)&!*0+2T$4&#-+!+!O1&!2&%*!f!(1*!

$4=+'-*EF+>!P(($4H!-*#-+!=&2*!%$*!='&<&'e#0$*(!0+4+!

=&2*! %$*! '&)1EF+! )&! 01(-+(! )&! -'*#(*0EF+! TS! 14!

&(-G412+! *+! 0+4D'0$+! $#-'* $#)k(-'$*>! P! $4=+'-^#0$*!

)+(!&<&$-+(!%$*!'&)1EF+!)&!01(-+(!)&!-'*#(*0EF+!$'S!

)&=&#)&'! )+! 4+#-*#-&! $#$0$*2! )*! $#<+'4*EF+! (+A'&!

+! =*G(! )&! +'$C&4!&I$(-&#-&! #+! =*G(! )&! *0+2T$4&#-+!

&! )*! 0*=*0$)*)&! )+(! $4$C'*#-&(! '&-'*#(4$-$'&4! *!

$#<+'4*EF+!&!)&!$#-&C'*'&4!*(!(1*(!0+41#$)*)&(!#+!

=*G(!)&!*0+2T$4&#-+H!+!O1&!=+'!(1*!%&Z!=+)&!)&=&#)&'!

)+!#G%&2!)&!&)10*EF+!)+(!$4$C'*#-&(H!)*!)1'*EF+!)*!

(1*!&(-*)$*!&!)+!-*4*#T+!)*!(1*!0+41#$)*)&>

3I$(-&! -*4AD4H! #*! 2$-&'*-1'*H! *! )$(01((F+! (&!

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D! &I021($%*4&#-&! $#-&' $#)k(-'$*! &! O1&! *! 4$C'*EF+!

)+! <*0-+'! -'*A*2T+! &! +! 0+4D'0$+! $#-&'#*0$+#*2! (F+!

(1A(-$-1-+(>! P+! $#-'+)1Z$'4+(! l1I+(! 4$C'*-U'$+(! #+!

4+)&2+H!+!=*G(!+'$C&4!&!+!=*G(!)&(-$#+!-+'#*4 (&!4*$(!

(&4&2T*#-&(!&4!-&'4+(!)&!)+-*EF+!)&!<*0-+'&(H!=&2+!

O1&!)&$I*!)&!T*%&'!&(=*E+!=*'*!0+4D'0$+!A*(&*)+!

#*(!%*#-*C&#(!0+4=*'*-$%*(>!M*(H!(&!0+#($)&'*'4+(!

O1&! +! 0+4D'0$+! A$2*-&'*2! D! 4*$+'$-*'$*4&#-&! $#-'*

$#)k(-'$*H! A*(&*)+! #*! &I$(-e#0$*! )&! &0+#+4$*(! )&!

&(0*2*! &! )$<&'&#0$*EF+! )&! ='+)1-+(H! %&'$]0*4+(!

14*!0+4=2&4&#-*'$)*)&!&#-'&!4$C'*EF+!&!0+4D'0$+!

$#-&'#*0$+#*2>! P(($4H! *! '&2*EF+! &#-'&! 4$C'*EF+! &!

0+4D'0$+! $#-&'#*0$+#*2! D! 2*'C*4&#-&! &I=2$0*)*! =+'!

4+)&2+(! )&! '&#)$4&#-+(! 0'&(0&#-&(! f! &(0*2*! )*!

L+%*!X&+'$*!)+!?+4D'0$+H!-*2!0+4+!3%&#&--!&!z&22&'!

aJ66Jb!&%$)&#0$*4!#+!(&1!&(-1)+>

3. Migração e Comércio Inter-regional

na União EuropeiaL+! 0+#-&I-+! )*! $#-&C'*EF+! &0+#U4$0*! *! "#$F+!

31'+=&$*! a"3b! D! +! 0*(+! )&! 4*$+'! (10&((+>! @! (&1!

='+0&((+! )&! $#-&C'*EF+! 0+4&E+1! *=U(! *! \&C1#)*!

`1&''*! M1#)$*2! 0+4! *! ?+41#$)*)&! 31'+=&$*! )+!

?*'%F+!&!)+!PE+!a?3?PbH!&(-*A&2&0$)*!&4!9QR9!=&2+!

X'*-*)+!)&!,*'$(H!&!<+$!&%+21$#)+!)&!Z+#*!)&!0+4D'0$+!

2$%'&!*!1#$F+!&0+#U4$0*!&!4+#&-S'$*!&!)&!n!=*'*!J:!

=*G(&(H!T*%&#)+!&4!-+)*!*!S'&*!&0+#U4$0*!2$A&')*)&!

)&! 4+%$4&#-*EF+! )&! =&((+*(H! A&#(H! (&'%$E+(! &!

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14*!4+&)*!k#$0*H!+!&1'+R.

X*2! 0+4+! )$Z! M*'O1&(! aJ667bH! -+'#*#)+ (&!

*=U(! 9QQJ! +!4&'0*)+! k#$0+! #+! =$2*'! )*! $#-&C'*EF+!

31'+=&$*H!*!4+A$2$)*)&!)&! <*0-+'&(! -+'#+1 (&!&#-F+!

#14*!O1&(-F+!$4=+'-*#-&!=*'*!+(!&(-*)+(!4&4A'+(!

BS!&I$(-&#-&(!&!=*'*!+(!<1-1'+(>!?+4+!0+#(&O1e#0$*!

R!P0-1*24&#-&H!)&()&!9!)&!{*#&$'+!)&!J66QH!*!Z+#*!31'+!0+#-*!0+4!9n!&(-*)+(!4&4A'+(5!P2&4*#T*H!s1(-'$*H!pD2C$0*H!?T$='&H!3(2+%SO1$*H!

3(2+%D#$*H!3(=*#T*H!/$#2^#)$*H!/'*#E*H!`'D0$*H!g'2*#)*H!g-S2$*H!d1I&4A1'C+H!M*2-*H!,*G(&(!p*$I+(!&!,+'-1C*2>

47


&! '&<+'E*#)+! *! $)&$*! $#-'+)1Z$)*! #*! (&0EF+! JH! D!

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)&! <*0-+'&(! 0+4+! 0+4=2&4&#-*'&(>! L14! 41#)+!

)&! &0+#+4$*(! )&! &(0*2*H! 01(-+(! )&! -'*#(=+'-&! &!

='+)1-+(!)$<&'&#0$*)+(H!+(!l1I+(!)&!4$C'*EF+!&!)&!

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<+'-&! $4=*0-+! #+!4&'0*)+! )&! A&#(! &! (&'%$E+(! &! #+!

4&'0*)+!)&!<*0-+'&(>!

34A+'*!*!"3!(&B*!14*!)*(!Z+#*(!4*$(! '$0*(!)+!

41#)+H!0+4!*!(1*!=+2G-$0*!)&! $#-&C'*EF+!)&!=*G(&(!

0+4! =*)'N&(! )&! %$)*! 4*$(! A*$I+(! 0'$*! C'*#)&(!

)$(=*'$)*)&(! &#-'&! *(! (1*(! '&C$N&(! &4! -&'4+(!

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+! +AB&0-$%+! )&! 4+)&'#$Z*'! &(-*(! k2-$4*(! =*'*! O1&!

=+((*4! '&01=&'*'!+!*-'*(+!&4! '&2*EF+!*+! '&(-+!)*!

"3>! L+! &#-*#-+! -*$(! )$(=*'$)*)&(! C&'*4! ='&((N&(!

4$C'*-U'$*(!=*'*!=*G(&(!0+4!4*$+'&(!#G%&$(!)&!%$)*!

a<*0-+'&(!Push - Pullb>!P!$#-&C'*EF+!)&!L+%+(!3(-*)+(!

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4$C'*-U'$+(!&!0+4&'0$*$(!)*!"#$F+>!

34!J668!*!"3!='+0&)&1!*+!4*$+'!*2*'C*4&#-+!)*!

(1*!T$(-U'$*H!$#-&C'*#)+!96!L3M>!3(-&!*0+#-&0$4&#-+!

=+)&! -'*Z&'! #+%*(! &%$)e#0$*(! =*'*! +! &(-1)+! )*!

'&2*EF+!&#-'&!4$C'*EF+!&!0+4D'0$+!$#-&'#*0$+#*2>!L+!

&#-*#-+H!(*2$&#-*4+(!O1&!*!2$A&'*2$Z*EF+!)+!0+4D'0$+!

&!)*!4$C'*EF+!&#-'&!+(!L3M!&!*!"39R!(&C1$1!)&()&!

0&)+! '$-4+(!41$-+! )$<&'&#-&(>! 3#O1*#-+! +! 0+4D'0$+!

)&!A&#(!&!(&'%$E+(!&#-'&!*!"3 9R!&!+(!L3M!<+$!(&#)+!

2$A&'*2$Z*)+! )&()&! +! $#G0$+! )+(! *#+(! Q6H! (&#)+! *(!

&I=+'-*EN&(! =*'*! *!3"!='*-$0*4&#-&! 2$%'&! *#-&(! )*!

*)&(F+! =2&#*! )+(! L3MH! *(! 4&)$)*(! )&! -'*#($EF+!

0+4+! *(! '&(-'$EN&(! -&4=+'S'$*(! *+! 4&'0*)+! )&!

-'*A*2T+! )+(! =*G(&(! )*! 3" 9R! *$#)*! %$C+'*4! =*'*!

*2C1#(!)+(!#+%+(!4&4A'+(H!0+4+!(&!=+)&!%&'$]0*'!

#*!X*A&2*!9>

tabela 1

Restrições ao Mercado de Trabalho para os Cidadãos dos NEM-8 na UE-15

Acesso para os trabalhadores provenientes da Bulgária e Roménia2

Maio 2004 a Abril 2006 Maio 2006 a Abril 2009 2007 e 2008

Alemanha Limitado Limitado Limitado

Áustria Limitado Limitado Limitado

Bélgica Limitado Limitado Limitado

Dinamarca Limitado Limitado Limitado

Espanha Limitado Aberto Limitado

Finlândia Limitado Aberto Aberto

França Limitado Limitado3 Limitado 3

Grécia Limitado Aberto Limitado

Holanda Limitado Aberto4 Limitado

Irlanda Aberto Aberto Limitado

Itália Limitado Aberto5 Limitado 6

Luxemburgo Limitado Limitado Limitado

Portugal Limitado Aberto Limitado

Reino Unido Aberto Aberto Limitado

Suécia Aberto Aberto Aberto

Acesso para os trabalhadores dos NEM-81

Fonte:!?+4$((F+!31'+=&$*!&![[[>31'P0-$%>0+4!a-*A&2*!&I-'*G)*!)&!p'&$-&#<&22#&'!&-!*2>!aJ667bH!==>!96Qb

9!r&=1A2$0*!?T&0*H!3(-U#$*H!q1#C'$*H!d&-U#$*H!d$-1^#$*H!,+2+#$*H!3(2+%SO1$*!&!3(2+%D#$*2!@!*0&((+!)+(!-'*A*2T*)+'&(!)&(-&(!=*G(&(!D!-*4AD4!2$4$-*)+!#+(!4&'0*)+(!)&!-'*A*2T+!)&!M*2-*!&!q1#C'$*V!3I021$#)+!01$)*)+(!)&!(*k)&H!-'*#(=+'-&(H!0+#(-'1EF+!&!T+-&2*'$*4 P0&((+!$2$4$-*)+!#*!4*$+'$*!)*(!$#)1(-'$*(!*!=*'-$'!)&!PA'$2!)&!J66nW!P0&((+!$2$4$-*)+!&4!C&'*2!)&()&!M*$+!)&!J66:R!m&()&!{12T+!)&!J66nn!,'+0&((+!)&!*0&((+!($4=2$]0*)+!#*2C14*(!$#)1(-'$*(


48

3I$(-&4! )$%&'(+(! &(-1)+(! O1&! *#*2$(*4! +!

$4=*0-+! )+! *2*'C*4&#-+! )*! "#$F+! 31'+=&$*! &4!

)$%&'(*(! %*'$S%&$(H! =+'! &I&4=2+5! ,*=*Z+C2+1! et al.

aJ66nb! -&#-*4! O1*#-$]0*'! +(! C*#T+(! =+-&#0$*$(! )+!

0+4D'0$+! 0+4! *! &I=*#(F+! )*! "3H! p'&$-&#<&22#&'! et

al.! aJ667b! *#*2$(*4! +! $4=*0-+! )+! *2*'C*4&#-+! )*!

"3!#+! $#%&(-$4&#-+!)$'&0-+!&(-'*#C&$'+!&!#+(!l1I+(!

4$C'*-U'$+(H! ?T&#! aJ668b! &(-$4*! +(! &<&$-+(! )*(!

<'+#-&$'*(!&#-'&!+(!=*G(&(!)*!"3!&!14!&#O1*)'*4&#-+!

)+(!&<&$-+(!)*!$#-&C'*EF+!#*(!-&+'$*(!#&+02S(($0*!&!)*!

#+%*!&0+#+4$*!C&+C'S]0*!D!<&$-+!=+'!M*'O1&(!aJ667b>!

L+! -'*A*2T+! )&! M*'O1&(! aJ667bH! (F+! ($#-&-$Z*)+(!

%S'$+(! &(-1)+(! (+A'&! -D0#$0*(! )&! 4+)&2*EF+! =*'*!

4&)$'!+!$4=*0-+!)+(!&<&$-+(!)+!0+4D'0$+!#*!"3>

L+! &#-*#-+H! =+10*! &%$)e#0$*! &I$(-&! (+A'&! *!

'&2*EF+! &#-'&! 4$C'*EF+! &! 0+4D'0$+! O1&! *)%e4! )+!

*2*'C*4&#-+! )*! "3> L&((&! (&#-$)+H! &(-&! &(-1)+! D!

14!0+#-'$A1-+!&!*#*2$(*!*!'&2*EF+!&#-'&! $4$C'*EF+!&!

0+4D'0$+!L+!0+#-&I-+!)*!$#-&C'*EF+!&0+#U4$0*!)+(!

L3M!&!*!"3>!34!0+#0'&-+!-&#-* (&!+A(&'%*'!&4!O1&!

4&)$)*H! #+! 0+#-&I-+! )+! *2*'C*4&#-+! )*(! <'+#-&$'*(!

)*!"3!&4!J668H!*!*01412*EF+!)+!(-+0K!)&!$4$C'*#-&(!

+'$1#)+(!)+(!L+%+(!3(-*)+(!M&4A'+(!-&4!$4=*0-+H!

+1! #F+H! (+A'&! *(! &I=+'-*EN&(! ,+'-1C1&(*(! =*'*!

*O1&2&(!4&'0*)+(>!

L14*!='$4&$'*!*#S2$(&!f! -*I*!)&!0'&(0$4&#-+!)+!

(-+0K!)&! $4$C'*#-&(!+'$1#)+(!)+(!&(-*)+(!4&4A'+(!

)*! "3 JR! &#-'&! J668! &! J66:H! =+)&4+(! +A(&'%*'!

=&2*! X*A&2*! JH! O1&! C&#&'$0*4&#-&! &4! ,+'-1C*2! +!

(-+0K! )&! $4$C'*#-&(! +'$1#)+(! )+(! L3M! 0'&(0&1!

(1A(-*#0$*24&#-&! *0$4*! )*!4D)$*! '&C$(-*)*! =*'*! *!

"3 JR>

tabela 2

Crescimento do stock de imigrantes oriundos da UE-25 em Portugal, 2004-2007

Origem Taxa de Crescimento do Stock de Imigrantes

Alemanha 4.21%

Áustria 3.71%

Belux 3.93%

Chipre 0.00%

Dinamarca 2.48%

Eslováquia 44.00%

Eslovénia 21.34%

Espanha 3.18%

Estónia 28.96%

Finlândia 3.16%

França 3.31%

Grécia 5.40%

Holanda 5.22%

Hungria 15.97%

Irlanda 7.81%

Itália 6.75%

Letónia 39.59%

Lituânia 50.90%

Malta 13.99%

Polónia 21.47%

Reino Unido 6.81%

Republica Checa 27.88%

Suécia 3.11%

UE-25 5.16%

Fonte:!gL3!&!0S2012+(!)+(!*1-+'&(

49


4. Modelização do Problema

4.1 O modelo gravitacional

m&()&! *! (1*! ='$4&$'*! 1-$2$Z*EF+! =+'! X$#A&'C&#!

a9QnJbH! ,|YT|#&#! a9QnVb! &! d$##&4*##! a9Qnnb! &(-&!

4+)&2+!-&4!($)+!*=2$0*)+!0+4!(10&((+!=*'*!*#*2$(*'!

='$#0$=*24&#-&!+(!l1I+(!)&!0+4D'0$+!*C'&C*)+!&#-'&!

)+$(!=*G(&(H!4*(!-*4AD4!=*'*!&I=2$0*'!)&-&'4$#*#-&(!

0+4+!*!4$C'*EF+H!-1'$(4+H!'&4&((*(!)&!4&'0*)+'$*(H!

$#%&(-$4&#-+!)$'&0-+H!&-0>!

P=&(*'! )&! -&+'$0*4&#-&! =+A'&! #+! $#G0$+H! *! =*'-$'!

)*! (&C1#)*! 4&-*)&! )*! )D0*)*! )&! 9Q:6! +! 4+)&2+!

C'*%$-*0$+#*2!-&4!%$#)+!*!(&'!)&(&#%+2%$)+H!&!)&%$)+!

*+! 0+#-'$A1-+! )&!P#)&'(+#! a9Q:QbH! *C+'*! =+)&! (&'!

)&'$%*)+! )&! )$<&'&#-&(! 4+)&2+(! &(-'1-1'*$(! 0+4+! +!

4+)&2+! r$0*')$*#+H! )&! q&0K(T&' @T2$#! &! )*! L+%*!

X&+'$*!)+!?+4D'0$+>!@!(&1!(1=+'-&!-&U'$0+!D!)$(01-$)+!

=+'! P#)&'(+#! a9Q:QbH! p&'C(-'*#)! a9Q7RH! 9Q7QbH!

q&2=4*#! a9Q7:bH! m&*')+'<<! a9QQRb! &! P#)&'(+#! &!

c$#0++=!aJ669b>!

\&C1$#)+!̀ +12)!a9QQ8bH!̀ $'4*!&!y1!aJ66Jb!&!d&[&'

aJ668bH! =*'*! *#*2$(*'! *(! O1&(-N&(! &4! &(-1)+! (&'S!

)&(&#%+2%$)+!14!4+)&2+!C'*%$-*0$+#*2!*14&#-*)+!)&!

%*'$S%&$(!'&2*0$+#*)*(!0+4!+!<&#U4&#+!)*!$4$C'*EF+>

m&! *0+')+! 0+4! +! 4+)&2+! C'*%$-*0$+#*2! C&'*2! )+!

0+4D'0$+H!+!%+214&!)&!&I=+'-*EN&(!&#-'&!)+$(!=*G(&(H!

TijH! D! 14*! <1#EF+5! =+($-$%*! )+! ='+)1-+! )*! h4*((*i!

&0+#U4$0*! )+(! )+$(! =*G(&(H! 4&)$)*! =&2+! ,gpH!

(&#)+!PIBi (PIB

j) o PIB! )+! &I=+'-*)+'! a$4=+'-*)+'bW!

&!#&C*-$%*!)+(!01(-+(!)+!0+4D'0$+!&#-'&!+(!=*G(&(H!

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!! a9b

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+#)&!uij!D!+!-&'4+!=&'-1'A*EF+!iid>!P+!1(*'!*!&O1*EF+!

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)&4+C'S]0*(H!C&+C'S]0*(H!2$#C1G(-$0*(H!&0+#U4$0*(H!

&#-'&!+1-'*(H

! aVb

(&#)+!PIBPCi (PIBPC

j) o PIB per capita do exportador

a$4=+'-*)+'b!O1&!D!1(*)+!0+4+!$#)$0*)+'!)+!#G%&2!)&!

'$O1&Z*H! *((14$#)+! O1&! O1*#-+! 4*$(! '$0+! D! +! =*G(!

4*$+'!*!='+A*A$2$)*)&!)&!(&'!4*$(!*A&'-+!*+!0+4D'0$+!

$#-&'#*0$+#*2>!?+4+!&(-*4+(!*=&#*(!*!0+#($)&'*'!+!

0+4D'0$+! A$2*-&'*2! 0+4! ,+'-1C*2! $(+2*)*4&#-&! &4!

0*)*!&(-$4*EF+!*(!%*'$S%&$(!PIB e PIBPC )&(-&!#F+!

%*'$*4!0+#(+*#-&!+(!=*'0&$'+(!0+4&'0$*$(H!=&2+!O1&!

(&'F+!&I021G)*(!)*!&O1*EF+>

,*'*! &<&$-+(! )&! &(-$4*EF+! *! &O1*EF+! aVb! D!

2$#&*'$Z*)*! *-'*%D(! )&! 14*! -'*#(<+'4*EF+! )1=2+

2+C*'G-4$0*H!&!*0'&(0$)*!)*(!%*'$S%&$(!)144Y!Currij e

NEMj!O1&!$)&#-$]0*4!(&!+(!=*'&(!)&!=*G(&(!=+((1&4!

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.6)(&:


50

4.2 Aplicação empírica

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(.(7+&-#!" %+(3-)%" )%" /&A"!" )& HI -% '%.6+'(%

(-#+&'%.3-(#,+(% 6 (-'03A)& -& !23&C$% >J? & *&+(,*!0

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ij . EU15

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da UE-15 ! /&+& %" )!K NEM +!"/!'#(*&.!-#!1 )!

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"398&'!-#! 6 )&)& /%+N

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% '%.6+'(% 9(0&#!+&0 !-#+! % /&A" i ! % /&A" j1 *&+(,*!("

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% /&A" j -% /!+A%)% tT

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4.3 Resultados

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tabela 3

Resultados da estimação do impacto do stock de imigrantes nas exportações Portuguesas para a UE-25

Variável Exportações Portuguesas para a UE-25 Sinal Esperado

-7.53***

(-2.68)

0.43***

(9.14)

0.41***

(7.69)

0.48***

(8.15)

1.32***

(7.71)

-0.27***

(-2.65)

0.01

(0.11)

0.49***

(2.69)

R2 ajustado 0.95

Distância -

Moeda única +

Novo Estado Membro +

Stock de Imigrantes . NEM +

PIB +

PIB per capita +

Constante

Stock de Imigrantes . EU15 +

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anexo a

dados

Variável Origem dos Dados

Tijt – exportações f.o.b. (em dólares) IMF – Direction of Trade Statistics

Mijt – stock de imigrantes (em pessoas) Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE)

PIBjt – PIB (PPP, em dólares de 2005)

PIBPCjt – PIB per capita (PPP, em dólares de 2005)

Distij – distância entre capitais (em quilómetros) www.indo.com/distance

Curr ij – moeda oficial CIA World Factbook 2008

Base de Dados Chelem INT

Documents

imigração e comércio internacional no contexto da integração