9
2 1 0 2 A M E K S B H M 1 ? e u q o p é e n u d n i f a L : r o t c a r o j a m a s a e p o r u E t c a p m i s i s i r c l a b o l G e h t l l i w w o H ? e g a t s d l r o w l a c i t i l o p d n a c i m o n o c e e h t n o l e h c i M . r D y b - t e h c u o B y r n e H 2 1 0 2 , 5 2 r e b o t c O ) c ( A M E K S / T E H C U O B . H M a L e u q o p é e n u d n i f : r o j a m a s a e p o r u E t c a p m i s i s i r c l a b o l g e h t l l i w w o H ? e g a t s d l r o w l a c i t i l o p d n a c i m o n o c e e h t n o r o t c a y r n e H l e h c i M t e h c u o B g r o . e c n a n i f g n i p o l e v e d . w w w s u p m a C h g i e l a R A M E K S 2 1 0 2 , 5 2 r e b o t c O > y c a r c o m e D + y h p o s o l i h P ? n o i l l i b 0 7 1 t e h c u o B H . M - 2 1 0 2 ) c ( A M E K S 8 0 0 2 s i s i r c l a b o l G - s i s i r c m e t s y S = 5 1 0 2 , e m i t s i h T s t i t n e r e f f i d ! d n a l a r u t c u r t S d e s i l a b o l g s i s i r c l l i p S - r e v o t c e f f e « : o h c E r e b m a h c » o n = n w o d w o l s c i m o n o c e l a b o l G g n i l p u o c e d l a b o l g o N n o i t a l u g e r e e r F : l e e h w e c n a n i f r e p y H s C M E s s e n e v i t i t e p m o c e g n e l l a h c o w T r e p g n i s i r f o s e i r u t n e c f l a h a d n a - a t i p a c s e m o c n i =U e u q i n n i e d o s i p e ? y r o t s i h n r e t s e W t e h c u o B H . M - 2 1 0 2 ) c ( A M E K S

La “ fin d’une époque ” Ho w w ill the global crisis ... 10-2012.pdf · This time, it’s di ff erent ! ... (but lo w er gro wth rate in the EU and declinin g m arg inal returns

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Page 1: La “ fin d’une époque ” Ho w w ill the global crisis ... 10-2012.pdf · This time, it’s di ff erent ! ... (but lo w er gro wth rate in the EU and declinin g m arg inal returns

2102 AMEKS BHM 1

“ ?euqopé enu’d nif aL :” rotca rojam a sa eporuE tcapmi sisirc labolG eht lliw woH

?egats dlrow lacitilop dna cimonoce eht no

lehciM .rD yb - tehcuoB yrneH

2102 ,52 rebotcO

)c( AMEKS/TEHCUOB.HM

“ aL euqopé enu’d nif :” rojam a sa eporuE tcapmi sisirc labolg eht lliw woH

?egats dlrow lacitilop dna cimonoce eht no rotca

yrneH lehciM tehcuoB

gro.ecnanifgnipoleved.wwwsupmaC hgielaR AMEKS

2102 ,52 rebotcO

> ycarcomeD + yhposolihP € ?noillib 071

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

8002 sisirc labolG - sisirc metsyS = 5102

,emit sihT s’ti tnereffid ! dna larutcurtS desilabolg sisirc llipS - revo tceffe « : ohcE rebmahc » on = nwodwols cimonoce labolG gnilpuoced labolg oN noitaluger eerF : leehw ecnanifrepyH sCME ssenevititepmoc egnellahc

owT rep gnisir fo seirutnec flah a dna - atipac semocni = U euqin ni edosipe ?yrotsih nretseW

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

Page 2: La “ fin d’une époque ” Ho w w ill the global crisis ... 10-2012.pdf · This time, it’s di ff erent ! ... (but lo w er gro wth rate in the EU and declinin g m arg inal returns

2102 AMEKS BHM 2

noitazilabolG cirtemysa fo egnellahC

noitazilabolG secnahne eht rewop foeht etats ni sCME ( sCIRB , elddiM -

,tsaE tsom seitidommoc srecudorp )

noitazilabolG snekaew eht rewop foeht etats ni eht depoleved seirtnuoc =

gniknirhs snigram fo revuenamtehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

UE - ?htworg hsigguls dna tbed hgih htiw gnipoC : 71

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

% setar htworg PDG

DLROW

FMI - 2102/01

DCEO 43

061 sCMEId

:

jdf9

M

ANIHCANIHC

ASU

atipac rep PDG 1- 2102 nosiddaM .A :ecruoS( - )DRBI & RECG

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS lanoitanretnI 0991( yraeG - simahK )srallod )c( AMEKS/tehcuoB HM

?pU gnihctaC + ffo gnikaT $SU( - )sisab ppp no atipac rep BIP

EDCO - 2102 - BW - IDW

Page 3: La “ fin d’une époque ” Ho w w ill the global crisis ... 10-2012.pdf · This time, it’s di ff erent ! ... (but lo w er gro wth rate in the EU and declinin g m arg inal returns

2102 AMEKS BHM 3

)c( AMEKS/tehcuoB HM

PDG labolG fo serahs lanoigeR ppp ni

FMI :ecruoS - 2102

seirtnuoc 061

0991 ppp PDG labolG fo erahS - 2102

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

0591 sPDG labolG poT ehT - 0502

)C( ECNANIF LABOLG/ AMEKS tehcuoB .H.MessiuS tiderC ,sCWP ,knaB dlroW

LARUTCURTSSTNEMELE

• gnigA noitalupopgniknirhS gnikrow

noitalupop• ngierevoS tbed

sisirc• htlaeW pag

• ssenevititepmoCenilced

LARUTLUCSTNEMELE

• sisirC fo eraflewetats

• ytiradiloSticifed

• lanoitansnarTytitnedi sisirc

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

= EPORUE ni ksiR niwToicos + cimonocE - noitatnemgarf lacitilop

YCILOPSTNEMELE

• tneiciffusnIcimonoce ycilop

noitanidrooc

• gninilceDssenevitceffe fo

lartnec knabyratenom ycilop

Page 4: La “ fin d’une époque ” Ho w w ill the global crisis ... 10-2012.pdf · This time, it’s di ff erent ! ... (but lo w er gro wth rate in the EU and declinin g m arg inal returns

2102 AMEKS BHM 4

gnol fo secruos ehT - htworg mret

.1 gnikroW noitalupop tub( gninilced eht ni )UE

.2 latipaC tnemtsevni tub( rewol htworg ni etar

dna UE eht gninilced lanigram snruter )

.3 ygolonhceT dnaD&R tub( gniwols dnarobal gnivas )

ehT non - rotces elbadart )3/2( ot tcejbus si

citsemod - dnamed cilbup hgih( stniartsnoc

,tbed dna ticifed)sisirc ecnedifnoc

ehT rotces elbadart )3/1( labolg no sdneped

,edart fo smret ,htworgssenevititepmoc dna

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

1 noitalupoP llarevO - 2102

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

6002 htworG cihpargomeD - 0502

2102 )c( AMEKS/tehcuoB .H.M

4002 dimaryP egA s’UE - 0502 = laitnetop htworg gnippord = gniknirhs noitalupop evitcA

!egnellahc ytivitcudorp

2102 )c( AMEKS/tehcuoB .H.M

Page 5: La “ fin d’une époque ” Ho w w ill the global crisis ... 10-2012.pdf · This time, it’s di ff erent ! ... (but lo w er gro wth rate in the EU and declinin g m arg inal returns

2102 AMEKS BHM 5

dna ,noitalupop gnikrow ,dnamed noitpmusnoc ,stekraMnoisnapxe cihpargomed

AMEKS )c( - retneC ecnaniF labolG

UE susrev SU spag ytivitcudorP - 71 SESUAC TOOR

.1 0> noitalerroc w gnikro ruobal/noitalupop ytivitcudorp

.2 0> noitalerroc latipactnemtsevni / ytivitcudorp

.3 0> noitalerroc D&Rtnemtsevni / ytivitcudorp

.4 0> noitalerroc rehgih noitacudetnemtsevni / ytivitcudorp

sesaercni

SECNEUQESNOC

robal rewoL ni ytivitcudorp

UE - 71

laitnetop rewoLUE ni PDG - 71

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

tehcuoB .H.M - )c( 2102 AMEKS

ASU fo % ni ruoh gnikrow/PDG = DCEO eht ni spag ytivitcudorP

0 02 04 06 08 001 021 041

yawroN

dnalerI

ASU

muigleB

ecnarF

ynamreG

€- enoZ

KU

DCEO

napaJ

peR hcezC

aeroK

yekruT

dnaloP

ocixeM

2102 DCEO :ecruoS

8991 - :2102 sesaercni ytivitcudorp robaL UE eht ni %01 dna ,napaJ ni %51 ,SU eht ni %73 - 71

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS2102 sixitaN :ecruoS

Page 6: La “ fin d’une époque ” Ho w w ill the global crisis ... 10-2012.pdf · This time, it’s di ff erent ! ... (but lo w er gro wth rate in the EU and declinin g m arg inal returns

2102 AMEKS BHM 6

tehcuoB .H.M - )c( 2102 AMEKS

0691 raey/sruoh gnikrow egarevA - 1102

2102/EDCO :ecruoS

h 0022 =aeroK5991 stsoc robal tinU - 1102

)deyolpme nosrep rep PDG laer ot eeyolpme rep noitasnepmoc fo oitaR( 5991=001

tehcuoB .H.M - )c( 2102 AMEKS2102 OCEMA :ecruoS

setar htworg tnemtsevnI latipaC

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS2102 DCEO :ecruoS

0791 TUO & nI IDF :enoZ oruE - 1102

)C( ECNANIF LABOLG/ AMEKS tehcuoB .H.M

noillim $$ noillib 058

004$noillib

swolftuo IDF latot ni tnemele yek eno si gnicruostuO

Page 7: La “ fin d’une époque ” Ho w w ill the global crisis ... 10-2012.pdf · This time, it’s di ff erent ! ... (but lo w er gro wth rate in the EU and declinin g m arg inal returns

2102 AMEKS BHM 7

% PDG/tnemtsevnI D&R

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

SU

NAPAJ

AEROK

YNAMREG

UE

ECNARF

SU

NAPAJ

AEROK

YNAMREG

ECNARFUE

( tneduts/gnidneps noitacude rehgiH ppp $SU )

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

=UE egareva ecnarF + ynamreG + KU fo

DCEO :ecruoS

0067$

00041$

sisirC yciloP eht sI : € ?emalb ot.1 oruE A - enoz sisirc tuohtiw oruE a sisirc.2 oN evititepmoc noitaulaved.3 ehT nommoc ycnerruc desopmi eht thgit yratenom

ycilop « eht fo rohcna yrtnuoc ».4 C dna lacitilop evitroppus eht tuohtiw ,ycnerruc nommo

snoitutitsni cimonoce.5 laicos sreggirt noissecer dna htworg sllik ytiretsuA

liomrut.6 oN detrecnoc dna lacsif tnemtsevni ycilop

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

owt ehT - :eporuE reithtuoS & htroN setar tnemyolpmenU

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

3- %5,5

8- %52

Page 8: La “ fin d’une époque ” Ho w w ill the global crisis ... 10-2012.pdf · This time, it’s di ff erent ! ... (but lo w er gro wth rate in the EU and declinin g m arg inal returns

2102 AMEKS BHM 8

a fo ecirp eht syap eporuEowt - noitapicname dlof

s0791 - s08 cimonoce fo ecnednepedni :metsys lacitilop morf metsys

s0891 - s09 laicnanif fo ecnednepedni :metsys cimonoce morf metsys

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS )c( AMEKS/tehcuoB .H lehciM

ehT part tbed llehstun a ni« yranoisnapxE ytiretsua » ticifeD gniknirhs htiw

gnidneps stuc + egawnoitcuder + thgit lacsif

dna yratenom ycilop = PDG llaf =

ycnevlos soitar gninesrow = gnitaR gnidargnwod !

= rehgiH gniworrob stsoc

« ticifeD - nevird noisnapxe » egraL yramirp lacsif ticifed

= rehgih noitpmusnoc =regral lanretxe ticifed =regral dednufnu gnicnanif

stnemeriuqer = PDG esir htiw + noitalfni

niwt sticifed gnitaR gnidargnwod !

= rehgiH gniworrob stsoc

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

Page 9: La “ fin d’une époque ” Ho w w ill the global crisis ... 10-2012.pdf · This time, it’s di ff erent ! ... (but lo w er gro wth rate in the EU and declinin g m arg inal returns

2102 AMEKS BHM 9

)c( AMEKS/tehcuoB H.M

sisirc larutluC « ? a si noitazilabolG taerht rofllew rof dna noitaerc boj rof ,ecnarF - »gnieb

ASC segadnoS - 6002 ertèmoraboruE ,5002/21 segnellahC - 2102 SOSPI ,9002

ot staerht larutluc rojam ehTnoitargetni naeporuE

.1 L ymene lanretxe na fo kca ?sisirc lanoiger eht :

.2 noitarepooc ytiruces citnaltasnart ni enilceD

.3 noisiced UE fo erutan ydleiwnU - gnikam 72 :susnesnoc on dna seirtnuoc

.4 msilanoiger neve dna msilanoitaN

.5 sisirc susnesnoc dna spag htlaeW

.6 ticifed ytiradiloS

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

?snoituloS eviF.1 eht gnixaleR itna - noitalfni BCE eht fo sucof.2 UE detrecnoC - ediw margorp gnidneps no desucof

tnemtsevni gnicnahne ssenevititepmoc.3 drawot sknab s’UE fo sucofeR ymonoce laer

:gnicnanif er - yrotisnart dna noitalugernoitazilanoitan

.4 fo sucofeR edart lanoiger no noitazilaicepssCME cimanyd

.5 cimonoce dna lacitiloP msilaredef ecneh ,refsnart ytngierevos

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS

yeht nehw egnahc tpecca ylno elpoeP“ ylno yeht dna ,ytissecen htiw decaf era

si sisirc a nehw ytissecen ezingocergnimoc ” tennoM naeJ

tehcuoB H.M - 2102 )c( AMEKS