Planu Estratéjiku Dezenvolvimentu: Jestaun ba rezultadu di’ak liu

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Planu Estratéjiku Dezenvolvimentu: Jestaun ba rezultadu di’ak liu Aprezentasaun husi Sosiedade Sivíl Setór Estratéjiku Ekonómiku husi Juvinal Dias Reuniaun ho Parseirus Dezenvolvimentu Timor-Leste Nian (TLDPM) Sentru Konvensaun Dili, 25-26 Jullu 2014. Rendimentu Petróliferu. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Reseita tomak hosi atividade mina no gas nian tenke ba Fundu Petrolferu diretamente.

  • TL uza onaTimor-LesteTL laiha SunriseAust-raliaRikusoin mina no gas ba kada sidadaun510 barrl800 barrl310 barrl1,180+ barrlBele kontinua tinan hira ho taxa produsaun 2012Tinan 14Tinan 5Tinan 58+

  • Alokasaun orsamentlDespeza ezekuta onaDespeza rekurrente ezekuta ona

  • Mina no gasSetr sira seluk hotu

    Chart1

    559.9144.1

    572.31090.7

    609.31950.8

    605.33518

    660.73421.6

    757.73815.3

    887.43406.7

    951.93246.3

    1046.43462.8

    Non-oil sector

    Oil sector

    GDP

    2000-2011 National Accounts

    Contributions to GDP at constant prices (table 3.1), Production Approach

    Section III. PRODUCTION APPROACH

    Table 3.1: Value added by industries

    (In millions of US Dollars, unless otherwise indicated)pct of nonoil GDP in 2011

    Year200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

    Agriculture, forestry and fishing15515516616317117818718118219619115315%

    Mining and quarrying22315013614810951956352334293824341732583477332%

    Of which: extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas21714413214410911951351834223815340732463463331%

    Other mining and quarrying6654455781012141%

    Manufacturing and other industry (Electricity and gas ; plus water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities)1919202123242226283435374%

    Of which: manufacturing1417161617181821222627262%

    Construction74715441313221409614415521821%

    Wholesale and retail trade, transportation and storage, accommodation and food services13618314213613215315515918318620219619%

    Information and communication245710101317213245606%

    Financial and insurance activities5109810111114161919182%

    Real estate activities7082807882837078747784909%

    Professional, scientific, technical, administration and support services4554555567891%

    Public admin., defence, education, human health and social work activities5167748288899811111715417521821%

    Other service activities1016131313151415181917202%

    0%

    Plus: Taxes less Subsidies on products5812151714-51318-929303%

    Oil sector----12747111535161%

    Non-oil sector58121567-967-24-6141%

    Equals: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT75577071571516762568411340884583427542164525

    Oil sector21714413214411021958352234283826342232813478

    Non-oil sector5386265845715736115916607578539341047100%

    Growth Rates2-701345360-112-7-17

    Oil sector-34-9106657880-312-11-46

    Non-oil sector16-7-2007-31215131012

    For graphing (ignore taxes and subsidies)200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

    Oil sector21714413214410911951351834223815340732463463

    Non-oil sector total5396245775605726096056617588879521046

    Agriculture155155166163171178187181182196191153

    Construction747154413132214096144155218

    Manufacturing141716161718182122262726

    Trade & hospitality136183142136132153155159183186202196

    Public administration51677482888998111117154175218

    Real Estate708280788283707874778490

    Other394945445157577184104120145

    blank

    For line graph

    Oil and Gas (right scale)21714413214410911951351834223815340732463463

    Public Admin & Construction125138128123119121119151213298330436

    Agriculture155155166163171178187181182196191153

    Other258331284274282311300329363393432457

    Compared with 2007 levels

    Mina no gas6%4%4%4%32%57%103%100%112%100%95%101%

    Administrasaun publiku no konstrusaun83%91%84%81%79%80%78%100%141%197%218%289%

    Agrikultura86%86%92%90%94%98%103%100%100%108%105%85%

    Seluk79%101%86%83%86%95%91%100%111%120%131%139%

    Year-on-year percentage changes

    Oil and Gas-34%-9%10%657%79%80%-3%12%-11%-5%7%

    Public Admin & Construction10%-8%-4%-3%1%-2%27%41%40%11%32%

    Agriculture0%7%-2%5%4%5%-3%0%8%-3%-20%

    Other28%-14%-3%3%10%-4%10%11%8%10%6%

    GDP

    Non-oil sector

    Oil sector

    BOP

    Agriculture

    Manufacturing

    Trade & hospitality

    Real Estate

    Other

    Public administration

    Construction

    Sheet3

    Graph by La'o Hamutuk based on RDTL DGE National Accounts 2000-2011. July 2013

    Oil and Gas (right scale)

    Public Admin & Construction

    Agriculture

    Other

    Sectoral contributions to GDP (million real USD)

    Grafiku husi La'o Hamutuk bazeia RDTL DGE National Accounts 2000-2011. Jullu 2013

    Mudansa iha GDP husi kada setor kompara ho 2007 (real USD)

    Mina no gas

    Agrikultura

    Seluk

    Administrasaun publiku no konstrusaun

    Graph by La'o Hamutuk based on RDTL DGE National Accounts 2000-2011. July 2013

    657%

    Oil and Gas

    Public Admin & Construction

    Agriculture

    Other

    Year-on-year GDP changes (real USD)

    Graphic by La'o Hamutuk based on RDTL General Directorate for Statistics 'TL National Accounts 2000-2011', May 2014

    Agriculture

    Manufacturing

    Trade & hospitality

    Real Estate

    Other

    Public administration

    Construction

    Sectoral contributions to Timor-Leste's 'non-oil' GDPMillions of constant US dollars

  • Kontribuisaun husi kada setr ba PIB naun-minaTokon dolar EUA konstanKonstrusaunAdministrasaun publikaSelukRai no umaKomrsiu no ospitalidadeIndstriaAgrikultura

    Chart1

    163.216.113677.74481.541.4

    170.917.3131.88250.98831.4

    177.918.4152.88356.788.731.8

    187.117.9155.269.5579820.6

    18120.7158.97871110.940.2

    181.521.9183.17484.3117.295.7

    196.226.3186.276.7103.8154.4143.8

    190.526.6201.684119.6174.5155.1

    153.225.9195.790145.4218.2218

    Agriculture

    Manufacturing

    Trade & hospitality

    Real Estate

    Other

    Public administration

    Construction

    Sectoral contributions to 'non-oil' GDPMillions of constant US dollars

    GDP

    2000-2011 National Accounts

    Contributions to GDP at constant prices (table 3.1), Production Approach

    Section III. PRODUCTION APPROACH

    Table 3.1: Value added by industries

    (In millions of US Dollars, unless otherwise indicated)pct of nonoil GDP in 2011

    Year200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

    Agriculture, forestry and fishing15515516616317117818718118219619115315%

    Mining and quarrying22315013614810951956352334293824341732583477332%

    Of which: extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas21714413214410911951351834223815340732463463331%

    Other mining and quarrying6654455781012141%

    Manufacturing and other industry (Electricity and gas ; plus water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities)1919202123242226283435374%

    Of which: manufacturing1417161617181821222627262%

    Construction74715441313221409614415521821%

    Wholesale and retail trade, transportation and storage, accommodation and food services13618314213613215315515918318620219619%

    Information and communication245710101317213245606%

    Financial and insurance activities5109810111114161919182%

    Real estate activities7082807882837078747784909%

    Professional, scientific, technical, administration and support services4554555567891%

    Public admin., defence, education, human health and social work activities5167748288899811111715417521821%

    Other service activities1016131313151415181917202%

    0%

    Plus: Taxes less Subsidies on products5812151714-51318-929303%

    Oil sector----12747111535161%

    Non-oil sector58121567-967-24-6141%

    Equals: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT75577071571516762568411340884583427542164525

    Oil sector21714413214411021958352234283826342232813478

    Non-oil sector5386265845715736115916607578539341047100%

    Growth Rates2-701345360-112-7-17

    Oil sector-34-9106657880-312-11-46

    Non-oil sector16-7-2007-31215131012

    For graphing (ignore taxes and subsidies)200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

    Oil sector21714413214410911951351834223815340732463463

    Non-oil sector total5396245775605726096056617588879521046

    Agriculture155155166163171178187181182196191153

    Construction747154413132214096144155218

    Manufacturing141716161718182122262726

    Trade & hospitality136183142136132153155159183186202196

    Public administration51677482888998111117154175218

    Real Estate708280788283707874778490

    Other394945445157577184104120145

    blank

    For line graph

    Oil and Gas (right scale)21714413214410911951351834223815340732463463

    Public Admin & Construction125138128123119121119151213298330436

    Agriculture155155166163171178187181182196191153

    Other258331284274282311300329363393432457

    Compared with 2007 levels

    Mina no gas6%4%4%4%32%57%103%100%112%100%95%101%

    Administrasaun publiku no konstrusaun83%91%84%81%79%80%78%100%141%197%218%289%

    Agrikultura86%86%92%90%94%98%103%100%100%108%105%85%

    Seluk79%101%86%83%86%95%91%100%111%120%131%139%

    Year-on-year percentage changes

    Oil and Gas-34%-9%10%657%79%80%-3%12%-11%-5%7%

    Public Admin & Construction10%-8%-4%-3%1%-2%27%41%40%11%32%

    Agriculture0%7%-2%5%4%5%-3%0%8%-3%-20%

    Other28%-14%-3%3%10%-4%10%11%8%10%6%

    GDP

    Non-oil sector

    Oil sector

    BOP

    Agriculture

    Manufacturing

    Trade & hospitality

    Real Estate

    Other

    Public administration

    Construction

    Sheet3

    Graph by La'o Hamutuk based on RDTL DGE National Accounts 2000-2011. July 2013

    Oil and Gas (right scale)

    Public Admin & Construction

    Agriculture

    Other

    Sectoral contributions to GDP (million real USD)

    Grafiku husi La'o Hamutuk bazeia RDTL DGE National Accounts 2000-2011. Jullu 2013

    Mudansa iha GDP husi kada setor kompara ho 2007 (real USD)

    Mina no gas

    Agrikultura

    Seluk

    Administrasaun publiku no konstrusaun

    Graph by La'o Hamutuk based on RDTL DGE National Accounts 2000-2011. July 2013

    657%

    Oil and Gas

    Public Admin & Construction

    Agriculture

    Other

    Year-on-year GDP changes (real USD)

    Graphic by La'o Hamutuk based on RDTL General Directorate for Statistics 'TL National Accounts 2000-2011', May 2014

    Agriculture

    Manufacturing

    Trade & hospitality

    Real Estate

    Other

    Public administration

    Construction

    Sectoral contributions to Timor-Leste's 'non-oil' GDPMillions of constant US dollars

  • Projeta ba Reseita estadu iha 2014:..tokon $2,380 tokon $2,213 (93%) sei mai hosi mina-rai (inkl. tokon $770 hosi retornu investimentu). tokon $ 166 ( 7%) hosi rekursu naun petrleu.OJE 2014tokon $1,500 tokon $903 (60%) hosi Fundu Petrolferu iha 2014. tokon $430 (29%) tan hosi FP ohin no futuru. (Rollover no tusan)PIB/GDP naun petrolferu iha 2011:.....tokon $1,047 GDP petrolferu iha 2011:....tokon $3,478 Produtivu (agrikultura & fabrika)tokon $179 (4%) no hatn Balansu komrsiu sasn (2013): tokon $535 ba importasaun, tokon $16 ba esportasaun (98% caf).Reseita husi petrleu ba estadu, la's ba povu.*Sudan Sl, Lbia (no Guine Ekuatorial?) iha nasaun rua ka tolu deit iha mundu depende liu Timor-Leste ba esportasaun mina no gas.

  • Importa Sistema Eltrika NasionlImportasaunEsportasaun (naun-mina)Importasaun sistema eletrisidadeImportasaun nota dolar EUATokon dolar EUA kada tinanGrfiku ida nee hatudu komrsiu legal sasn deit. Maizumenus 80% gastu doador nian no 50% gastu estadu nian sai ba li'ur.

  • Meta matak iha kotuk reprezenta montante ne'eb gastu ona too ohin loron karik despeza hanesan kada fulan durante tinan tomak.TransfernsiaKapitl Dezenvolv. Kapitl Menr Bens & servisuSalriu no vensimentuMetaGastu onaObrigasaun tuir kontratuKompromisuSaldu

  • Reseita total: tokon $1,500, inklui 89% husi mina no gas iha tempu pasadu, ohin loron no aban bainrua.

  • Timor-Leste enfrenta problema agora atu hetan empregu ba joven na'in 16,000 tama iha forsa laboral durante tinan 2014.Iha tinan 2024, joven na'in 28,000 foun sei buka servisu kada tinan, no mina sai maran ona. Joven sira agora daudaun sei iha oan.

  • Saida mak vantage kompetitivu iha Oekusi?ZEESM bele justifika investimentu billaun $4?Se mak hetan benefsiu: Oekusi sira ka poltiku nain sira?

  • IFC f korajen ba TL atu harii portu no aeroportu boot liu duke trafiku neeb bele justifika.Oins Timor-Leste bele selu ba defisit komrsiu bainhira mina no gas maran ona?Traffic forecast for Tibar Port

  • TL hah servisu ba korredr petrleu Tasi Mane iha 2010.Durante 2011-2013, TL gastu ona tokon $35.Folin projetu tomak bele liu billaun $2 (liu karik Timor-Leste selu ba refinaria, kadoras, ka planta LNG).

    OJE 2014 sei gastu t$46 iha 2014 no t$320m iha 2015-2018, maib la inklui buat hotu.

  • Bele hetan informasaun tan no atualiza ihaLao Hamutuk nia website http://www.laohamutuk.org Lao Hamutuk nia blog http://laohamutuk.blogspot.com/

    Institutu Timor-Leste ba Monitor no Analiza DezenvolvimentuRua Martires do Patria, Bebora, Dili, Timor-LesteMailing address: P.O. Box 340, Dili, Timor-LesteTel.: +670 77234330 (mobile) +670 3321040 (landline) Email: [email protected]

  • *

  • Hasai husi Fundu Petrolferu durante fulan idaDespeza atul kada fulanSaldu iha Tesoro estadu nian

  • Distritu

    Fongtil ba TLDPM Setr Ekonmiku*19 Junu 2013Fongtil ba TLDPM Setr EkonmikuFongtil ba TLDPM Setr EkonmikuTimor-Leste includes 50% of Greater Sunrise.Duration calculated based on 2012 reserve/production ratios. Australia is likely to find more reserves and have higher production rates in the future, but TL may not.*Fongtil ba TLDPM Setr Ekonmiku**Fongtil ba TLDPM Setr Ekonmiku*Fongtil ba TLDPM Setr EkonmikuAfter correcting for inflation, oil GDP has been more-or-less constant since 2006. It is declining since 2011 as fields are depleted.*Fongtil ba TLDPM Setr EkonmikuThe double-digit growth in non-oil GDP is an illusion.The top two segments, construction and public administration, are the only parts which are growing significantly. They are almost entirely oil-funded state spending. Agriculture has not increased in eight years (this graph adjusts for inflation), and manufacturing remains tiny.Lao Hamutuk made this and the previous graph from the Government Statistics departments report on National Accounts.*Fongtil ba TLDPM Setr Ekonmiku**Fongtil ba TLDPM Setr Ekonmiku**Fongtil ba TLDPM Setr Ekonmiku18-20 Nov. 2013*Fongtil ba TLDPM Setr Ekonmiku*Fongtil ba TLDPM Setr Ekonmiku*