Serviços Ambientais na Floresta Amazônica e

o seu Futuro

Ecosystem Services in the Amazon Rain

Forest and its Future

Philip M. Fearnside Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA)

http://philip.inpa.gov.br

"X Eugen Warming Lectures in Evolutionary Ecology: biodiversity and

ecosystem service in the tropics – now and beyond". Universidade Federal

de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, 02 de dezembro de 2014.

http://inct-servamb.inpa.gov.br/

Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia dos Serviços Ambientais da Amazônia – SERVAMB

Foto por Ansell Adams

• “These temple destroyers,

devotees of ravaging

commercialism, seem to have a

perfect contempt for Nature,

and, instead of lifting their eyes

to the God of the mountains, lift

them instead to the Almighty

Dollar.”

John Muir

Forum Mudanças Climáticas e Justiça Social, 2012, p.16.

“.. For developed countries … the results

suggest that a statistical life should not be

valued at less than $700,000 and should

plausibly be at least $1.5 m (Pearce et al.,

1991). For developed regions we thus

assume $1.5 m … Unfortunately few value-

of-life studies exist concerning the less

developed world. We therefore used an

arbitrary value of $300,000 for middle income

and $100,000 for low income countries…”

Fankhauser, 1995, pp. 47-48.

Fearnside, P.M. 1989. Forest

management in Amazonia: The need for

new criteria in evaluating development

options. Forest Ecology and Management

27(1): 61-79.

Fearnside, P.M. 1997. Environmental

services as a strategy for sustainable

development in rural Amazonia.

Ecological Economics 20(1): 53-70.

Costanza, R., R. d'Arge, R. de Groot, S.

Farber, M. Grasso, B. Hannon, K. Limburg,

S. Naeem, R.V O'Neill, J. Paruelo, R.G.

Raskin, P. Sutton & M. van den Belt. 1997.

The value of the world's ecosystem

services and natural capital. Nature 387:

253-260.

Pimentel, D., C. Wilson, C. McCullum, R.

Huang, P. Dwen, J. Flack, Q. Tran, T.

Saltman & B. Cliff. 1997. Economic and

environmental benefits of biodiversity.

BioScience 47(11): 747-757.

Nat Geogr. map

.. . . ....

Water fluxes in Amazonia

Description Volume of water

(1012 m3/year)(a)

Comparison with the

discharge of the

Amazon River (%)(b)

Transport (advection) from the Atlantic Ocean

into the region by the NE trade winds 10 ± 1 152%

Mean discharge of the Amazon River at its mouth 6.6 100%

Precipitation in the hydrographic basin of the

Amazon River 15.05 228%

Evapotranspiration 8.43 128%

Water vapor transported by winds to other

regions 3.4 ± 1 52%

(a) Values from review of Salati (2001), except for last item.

(b) Percentage in comparison with the mean flow at the mouth.

Fonte: http://ar.geocities.com/lapaginaderionegroyneuquen/temas/salltej.htm

)outh Ameâcan Low-Level .let )dob6r 2002 RB()O<l

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Domínio: (76,2W – 47,6W; 13,2S – 5,5N)

- 184

-184

Correia, 2005

Unidade: 106 kg/s

202 mil toneladas

de vapor de água

por segundo em

uma área de

aproximadamente

6 milhões de

quilômetros

quadrados

Equivalem a

aproximadamente

1 metro de água

líquida no ano

.Ciência Hoje 34(203): 63-65 (2004) .

Governo quer reduzir desmata1mento em 72º/o Ministro ::liz que. até 2017, desmatamento no país deve cair 72%. Brasíl arrecadará cerca de US$ 1 bi por aro com Fundo Amazõnía

B rull11, or - ;i •11· n!strc oo Melo ~m­D~nte C3rlo; >.!ínc. anunciou Ol"li.E-111 a

nllVa mef.ã !1e aesmal~ê!J'i· to º' <lOVe·no l•ceral para a Amal-Onia, Que 1!Slab<-lece planos QuaJrienals qce '.O·

talizam 72'lo d~ reàu~ão !las ár•as desm9ta= at~ 2017,

A reoução sena de 40% no P<im?lro Qt.adríênio CO'ltaóo a partir de 2006 e de 31)% em cada um ~óo,;periooos seQointes. r~lat"'°'rnen~ aos quadr@r.as a nlErior es. A ~S• usada p.;ra se c<t:nr as melas foi o períoao de l9% a 2005. Ja o período da prmeira :t~a doe rKJuçàv. de 2006 a <009. c:ocrE-SponOe ao segundo man· &!J) do ,,,..,id~nl~ lula

"'t"- ,,.. -.... ....., ......... ~ .• , ..... 1.

Mine. ISSO vai depe<>àer ae o governo feoernl fater 3/f<Jul.i· rt:ação lundiária e ~horar J iucal,zação. Va1dapeno•rtôll'" bim aos qovemos •slddua;,;, jt-contribulçôesdepa1.sesam1· qvs Pi'íil o Fundo Am.JZ~nico ~ :a~"' do cioaa~o sab~r .; ;llgemdamadeif!lvinóopara.; suames.a,parao$euarm3rio. ·j1sse o ministro.

Pl•not :J plane. de m~tds i;;mbém

~revê o aumento da partlci­paç~o do etar.ol e d·~ ootros b•OCOmbUSU\~6 na •nàlriz ererqelica ao e·as1I. P•ra o etan0t ~ metõ é um aumen10 de """ ao JOO nos prórlmos 15 anos. o aue resu1tari3 em uma 1 eduç~o df 508 mi t>õe5 ""' 1~r1.=< "!.Oco~ l,-fi.f-.adas

Ministerio do Meio Ambiente (MMA). The Brazilian Redd Strategy. MMA, Brasília,

DF, 29 pp. (2009).

20

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20

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08

11

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a d

e d

esm

atm

en

to

(10

3 k

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no

)

Ano

Taxa anual de desmatamento

Cotação medi" mensal da arroba do boi gordo, na região de Barretos (SP), em R$ V orno 1

J ar. O J.1 02 J-in/03 Jan/Q. Jan/Ob Jrn/81 Dez/07

76.90

J li /01 )J /02 Ja 1/03 1~1vo Jcl i/05 Jan/06 Jan 07 Dc-z/07

A soja aumenta, a 1--~· A COl

- - -

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. [p 1 ~

CLIMATE POLICY INITIATIVE RIO DE JANEIRO

Deforestation Slowdown in the Legal Amazon: Prices or Policies?

Climate Policy Initiative / PUC-Rio Juliano Assunção, Clarissa C. e Gandour, Rudi Rocha 6 February 2012

http://climatepolicyinitiative.org/2012/03/28/deforestation-slowdown-in-the-

brazilian-amazon-prices-or-policies/

Resolução BACEN nº 3.545/2008

Folha de S. Paulo, 08/11/14, Cotidiano, p. 10

Desmatamento em agosto e setembr,o 2009 - 2014: DETER

Aumento de

122% em 2014

Folha de S. Paulo, 08/11/14, Cotidiano, p. 1

Focos de desmatamento, agosto-setembro de 2014: DETER

Ciência Hoje 46(273): 66-67 (2010).

Ciência Hoje 28(163): 62-63. (2000)

Amazonas em Tempo

......

~'<?nezucl.:i

:::- !" ., t; r. ,, s

" .. t'

"' .. ~ Peru

" > 3: ... .. (•

"' · ~ ~ ,,

o ,; \ EIOhYla

~ Ç• -........ U1

g '"' .. 70"0'll'W 65'!7tTW

Área desmatada na .Amazô11ia até 2009

f;)"Q'fl''W 5~'0'0"W

<,!:1 CJpital e~tadual

Estrada oficial

Limite esladual

Unidüde de conservação

Terra mdlgena

Dl'Smat~rnento até 2009

Ms'tti~d•Pt'uj~o !i>ionUJA"ld.M. Ml .IJI Cl••1.a. \.AD U6i

Foote

114( hnff<e ti w .... run• ,.,.'" lhJ l .. tl.U

lh~• ,JmJ.d1Jd•.;'•nM1'\'1K'l• ltn.!Cft f1tJJitl'5

lnp• 011m1t~m•••H

Elabor.içáo

dUrlJá Ami;mn River

~~= F)Q;;id

N -- -Plannea Rõãél

A .-....._.. Plver ~O Kilometer;? • Oi\1'

Braga assina hoje Lei do Macrozoneamento·

1~11 •V .......................

... .- ..... •

TERRAS INDIGINA

(l.J.

ECOSSISTEMAS FRÂGJ;IS

<ª·')

Fearnside, P.M. & P.M.L.A. Graça.

2006. BR-319: Brazil’s Manaus-Porto

Velho Highway and the potential

impact of linking the arc of

deforestation to central Amazonia.

Environmental Management 38(5):

705-716. doi: 10.1007/s00267-005-

0295-y.

Introdução

Objetivos

Metodologia

Resultados

Esperados

Cronograma

40

Soares-Filho et al., 2006

DINAMICA-EGO

AGROECO

BAU “Business As Usual “

AGROECO

Conservação

Modelagem do desmatamento na Amazônia

Desmatamento

até 2050

(106 ha)

Percentagem

da ALAP

Emissão

Líquida

Comprometida

(Gt C-CO2)

Business as

Usual

5,1 38% 0,95

Conservação 3,4 22% 0,64

Diferença 1,6 16% 0,31

Cenários simulados para a ALAP da

BR-319 até 2050

Fearnside, P.M., P.M.L.A. Graça,

E.W.H. Keizer, F.D. Maldonado, R.I.

Barbosa & E.M. Nogueira. 2009.

Modelagem de desmatamento e

emissões de gases de efeito

estufa na região sob influência da

Rodovia Manaus-Porto Velho (BR-

319). Revista Brasileira de

Meteorologia 24(2): 208-233. doi:

10.1590/S0102-

77862009000200009

43

ÁREA DE ESTUDO:

• Superfície de 99.320,7

km²;

• Cortada pela BR – 174, BR

– 210, BR – 431 e pela

rodovia Estadual RR – 170;

•Pop. 61.000 habitantes

• Área desmatada: 3.750

Km², até 2007.

PRODES (2008)

44

Arquivos vetoriais de desmatamento do PRODES

Pastagem avança sobre a floresta no sul do Estado de

Roraima, região onde o desmatamento deve aumentar

devido à migração, caso seja ligada ao Arco de

Desmatamento pela proposta reabertura da rodovia BR-319

(Manaus-Porto Velho).

46

Gráfico de desmatamento anual acumulado

Barni, P.E.; P.M. Fearnside &

P.M.L.A. Graça. nd.

Simulating deforestation and

carbon loss in Amazonia:

impacts in Brazil's Roraima

state from reconstructing

Highway BR-319 (Manaus-

Porto Velho). Environmental

Management (in press).

Folha de S. Paulo 19/04/09 p. A-24.

Florestas podem prejudicar mercado de carbono, diz Greenpeace Os preços do mercado de carbono podem despencar

75 por cento se os créditos para a salvaguarda de

florestas forem acrescidos aos mercados para as

emissões industriais, disse a entidade ambientalista

Greenpeace na segunda-feira (30).

Estadão Online 31 Mar. 2009

Total expenditure ($)

Total Carbon (t) = ---------------------

Average price ($/t)

Wunder et al. 2008, p. 32

REDD and the etfort to limit global warriling to 2·c : lmpfications for includlng REDD credits in

the international carbon rnarket

30 March 2 0ID9

Greenpeaee lnterna tional

(KEA 3, 2009, p. 18)

the anticipated supply of REDD

credits will depress global carbon

prices around 60% if commitments

are not increased or if there are no

supplementarity restrictions.

B idging the Gap for Real Emission Reductions

Greenpeace views on the developrnent of existi ng and future carbon market mechanisms

Forest credits in the carbon market?

On forest protection, Greenpeace supports the

establishment of a multilateral forest fund replenished

through increased public financial support.

Furthermore, economic analysis shows that countries like

China, India and Brazil could lose tens of billions of dollars

for clean energy investments under the carbon market

mechanisms, if forest protection measures are included in

the carbon market.

Greenpeace calls on all Parties to oppose the

inclusion of REDD in the carbon market mechanisms.

(Greenpeace, 2009. Bridging the Gap for

Real Emission Reductions )

Greenpeace, 2008

Greenpeace, 2008, Forests for Climate, p. 19

In contrast [to carbon credit for REDD] , a

fund for forests could be designed to

compensate countries only for foregone

costs of not deforesting.

The result would be more efficient

expenditure of limited mitigation resources

and lower overall compliance costs for

industrialised countries.

Greenpeace, 2008, Forests for Climate, p. 14

It [REDD] … takes the focus

off of the need for countries

historically responsible for

the climate crisis to reduce

emissions at home.

it is unclear if, in the absence

of the cost-moderating effects

of REDD, the ambitious goals

proposed by the IPCC will be

agreed.

(KEA 3, 2009, p.

21)

Fearnside, P.M. 2013. What is at stake for

Brazilian Amazonia in the climate

negotiations. Climatic Change. 118(3):

509-519. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0660-9

Fearnside, P.M. 2012. Brazil's Amazon

Forest in mitigating global warming:

unresolved controversies. Climate

Policy 12(1): 70-81. doi:

10.1080/14693062.2011.581571

70º0'0"W

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70º0'0"W

60º0'0"W

31

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60º0'0"W

50º0'0"W

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Presas existentes

Amazonía Legal

7500 11250 15000 .. ::::..:::::1111 .... .:::=====-...... km

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http://colunas.globoamazonia.com/philipfearnside/

PHILIP FEARNSIDE

http://amazoniareal.com.br/

COMMENTARY:

Greenhouse-gas emissions from tropical dams Philip M . Fearnside and Salvador Pueyo

Emissions from tropical hydropower are often underestimated and can exceed those of fossil fuel

for decades.

ropícal hydroelectríc darns, such as those in Amazonia, emit significant amounts of greenhouse gases, especíally

methane1-4

• These emíssions have been underestímated or ignored in many global and natíonal greenhouse-gas accounts. If any justification is given for omítting ali or part of these emíssions, ít is usually that they are controversial, uncertaín or wíth no consensus5• However, although uncertainty regarding the quantities emitted is substantial6

, darn emíssions need to be included in all accountíng based on the best

382

available data and calculation methods. Much of the wíde variation ín the emíssions ascríbed to tropical dams stems from omíssions and errors ín accounting, rather than from the physícal measurements that are nevertheless also subject to methodologícal problems.

The fact that substantial emissions are ínvolved can hardly be considered uncertaín, havíng been measured directly at reservoirs such as Balbina in BraziF and Petit Saut ín French Guiana1

• Dam emissions are of two types: reservoir surface or upstream emissions and those from the water that

passes through the turbínes and spillways (degassing or downstream emíssions). Where dam emissions are counted, they often ínclude only the upstream emissions, as in estímates by Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. (Eletrobrás)7. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Clímate Change specíal report on renewable energy revíews lífe-cycle assessments for various technologies and, for the typícal case (the SOth percentile), ranks hydro as having half the impact or less compared wíth any other source íncluding solar, wínd and ocean energy5• The basis ín

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 1VOL 2 1JUNE2012 I www.natu re.com/ naturecl imatechange

Fearnside & Pueyo, 2012. Nature Climate Change

Oecologia Australis

15(2): 199-212, Junho 2011

doi:10.4257/oeco.2011.1502.02

EMISSÕES DE GASES DE EFEITO ESTUFA DOS RESERVATÓRIOS DE

HIDRELÉTRICAS: IMPLICAÇÕES DE UMA LEI DE POTÊNCIA

Salvador Pueyo1 & Philip M. Fearnside2*

Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), C/ Doctor Trueta 203, Barcelona,

08005, Catalunha, Espanha.

2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Avenida André Araújo,

2936, Caixa postal: 478. Manaus, AM, Brasil. CEP: 69011-970.

E-mails: spueyo@ic3.cat, pmfearn@inpa.gov.br

Pueyo & Fearnside, 2011. Oecologia Australis

m Jirau_ The world's largest renewable COM project obtains registration at the.pdf - Adobe Acrobat

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OUR REGION OUR GROUP SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

JIRAU: THE WORLD'S LARGEST RENEWABLE COM PROJECT

OBTAINS REGISTRATION AT TH E UNITED NATIONS

IJ.1

(Grandin 2012, p. 14)

Figure 4 Bubbles in a tributary in Santo

Antônio.

(Grandin 2012, p. 28)

Folha de São Paulo, 23 de março de 2011, p B-6

Art 12

Santo Antônio Jirau

Duration (years) 10 7

Emission claimed 0 0

IRR Benchmark 10.35% 15.7%

IRR calculated 5.63% 7.5%

Annual credit (Mt CO2eq) 5.83 6.18

Total credit (Mt CO2eq) 51.5 43.3

Total credit (Mt C-eq) 14.0 11.8

Total value of credit (US$ billion) 1.32* 1.11

*Assumed to be the value per t CO2eq presented in the Jirau project.

CARBON CREDIT PROJECTS FOR THE

MADEIRA RIVER DAMS

CDM Hydro pipeline as of 30 January 2012[a]

Country Total Installed CO2e[c] % of

projects[b] capacity average/yr total

(MW) (million t) CO2e

China 1,410 61,280 179.7 62.2

Brazil 117 8,495 17.8 6.2

Other non-Annex I[d] 774 88,577 91.4 31.6

Total 2,301 158,352 288.9 100.0

[a] Data from Chu (2012) based on the UNEP Risoe Centre (http://cdmpipeline.org/).

[b] Includes both "large" (defined by the CDM as > 15 MW) and "small" (≤ 15 MW) projects.

[c] 1 ton carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e) = 1 certified emissions reduction (CER).

[d]Countries without limits on their emissions under the Kyoto Protocol.

GWP20 GWP100

CH4 No cc fb 84 28

With cc fb 86 34

IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report, Final Draft (7 June 2013) Chapter 8, Table 8.7,

p. 8-58.

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-

12Doc2b_FinalDraft_All.pdf

Tclcs_Pircs_Oam_COM_Mlll,pdf - A/J Rc er

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LO Bookma..-lu [õ]

[] ~-

B O' Carbon credit for

~

.g hydroelectric dams as a source of

t1 greenhouse-gas emissions: the

D' Abstract

O' lntroduction

O' The Teles Pires proj ect

O' Hydroclcctric emissions and the IPCC

O' Conclusions

O' References

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (20 13) 18:691-699 001 10. 1007/sl 1027-012-9382-6

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

copy

Carbon credit for hydroelectric dams as a source of greenhouse-gas emissions: the example of Brazil 's Teles Pires Dam

PhiJip M. Fcarnsidc

Received: 25 February 20 12 / Accepted: 9 April 2012 / Published online: 3 May 2012 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

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úedit for clitnate tr1itigation by Arn azonian dam s: loopholes and impacts illu strated by Brazil's Jirau Hydroelectric Project

http://philip.inpa.gov.br