eCommerce Trends and Outlook for Latin America
LILY VARON@lilyvaron
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 2
We work with business and technology leaders to develop customer-obsessed strategies that drive growth.
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 3
Agenda
› An overview of eCommerce in Latin America
› A closer look at Brazil, Argentina and Mexico
› Key Takeaways
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 4
Agenda
› An overview of eCommerce in Latin America
› A closer look at Brazil, Argentina and Mexico
› Key Takeaways
14.3%
8.3%
9.4%
eCommerce is growing globally.
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Asia Pacific11.2%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (US), Q4 2015 Update; Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 to 2020 (Latin America); Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Western Europe), Q4 2015 Update; Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Asia Pacfic)
CAGR
CAGR
CAGR
CAGR
The population is relatively young
Argentina & Brazil 31Chile 34
Colombia 29Mexico 28
Peru 27
US 38UK 40
China 37
Japan 46
Source: "The World Factbook," CIA
The middle class has grown substantially
2015 GDP per capita is generally higher than many
large markets in Asia
There is significant online buyer growth potential in Latin America
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecasts, 2015 To 2020
Source: “The Evolution Of Global eCommerce Markets” Forrester report
eCommerce markets evolve in four phases.
Traditional retailers play a key role in driving eCommerce
Mobile commerce
hasn’t taken off
like in other markets
$13.1B$4.8B
$2.9B
Brazil’s online sales are nearly double those for Mexico & Argentina
MexicoArgentina
Brazilcombined.
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 13
Online retail sales are still a small percentage of total retail sales
2012 2013 2014 20150%
1%
2%
3%
4%
ArgentinaBrazilMexico
Source:Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Latin America)
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 14
Agenda
› An overview of eCommerce in Latin America
› A closer look at Brazil, Argentina and Mexico
› Key Takeaways
Brazil
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 16
Brazil’s eCommerce revenues will continue to grow through the recession
$13.1 $11.7 $12.8 $14.1$15.7
$17.9
Total online retail spending (US$ billions)
60.354.249.044.440.437.0
Forecast
2015 20172016 2018 2019 2020
Total online buyers (millions)
CAGR from
2015 to 2020: 6.5%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Latin America)
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 17
Consumers are buying across a wide variety of categories online in Brazil
2010: $7.5B
Phase 365%
Phase 411%
Other24%
2020: $18B
Phase 355%
Phase 432%
Other13%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast (Latin America)
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 18
Some key KPIs shed light on how Brazil differs from other markets
Source: “2014 State of eCommerce Brazil”, a joint survey conducted by Forrester Research and E-Commerce Brasil
Help us refresh this data!
Import restrictions challenge global brands
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Argentina is the 2nd largest eCommerce market in Latin America
$4.8 $4.2 $5.0 $5.7 $6.4 $7.0Total online retail spending (US$ billions)
18.718.017.015.914.4
12.6
Forecast
2015 20172016 2018 2019 2020
Total online buyers (millions)
CAGR from
2015 to 2020: 8.0%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Latin America)
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 23
Early stage categories continue to dominate online sales
2015: $4.7B
Phase 365%
Phase 418%
Other16%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast (Latin America)
Even so, retailers are beginning to offer advanced omnichannel offerings
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 26
Mexico’s eCommerce market is small today but shows longer-term potential
$2.9 $3.2 $3.8 $4.4 $5.1 $6.0Total online retail spending (US$ billions)
25.521.6
18.315.6
13.411.6
Forecast
2015 20172016 2018 2019 2020
Total online buyers (millions)
CAGR from
2015 to 2020:
15.4%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Latin America)
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 27
Early stage categories dominate online sales in Mexico
2015: $3B
Phase 364%
Phase 417%
Other19%
Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast (Latin America)
Consumers need tangible evidence they should trust online retailers
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Mexico’s potential has spurred global brands into action
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 31
Agenda
› An overview of eCommerce growth in Latin America
› A closer look at Brazil, Argentina and Mexico
› Key Takeaways
eCommerce in Mexico is set to grow significantly in the years to come
If Argentina’s import restrictions ease up, it will spur eCommerce growth (and more international competition)
Despite economic crisis, eCommerce in Brazil will continue to grow
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 33
Key takeaways
› Understand which eCommerce maturity phase each market is in
› Establish a level of trust with consumers in earlier-stage markets
› Implement key eCommerce features in more mature markets
© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 34
And for online retailers operating in Brazil› The value and convenience of the
online channel will still draw shoppers› Ensure search and display features
highlight promotions and discounts› Be explicit about how you help
consumers save money› Turn attention to customer retention