Assessing the economic and environmental

impacts of an e-bike sharing system

João-Pedro Ferreira Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra,

Portugal

Gil RibeiroGOVCOPP & CIAUD, Department of Social,

Political & Territorial Sciences, University of Aveiro

Outline

Introduction

Case-study

Estimation procedures 1st order impacts 2nd order impacts

Conclusion

Introduction

Growing concern regarding the multitude of problems caused by motorization.

Bicycle renaissance across the globe.

Most studies concerning the impacts of bike sharing systems assess the benefits of these infrastructures one-dimensionally, discussing their effect either on congestion, health, environment or urban attractiveness.

Our goal consists in highlighting another important, yet commonly missed, benefit of cycling besides these referred ones.

≈550.000 inhabitants

85 Km2

4.000.000 tourists per year

Most important Portuguese employment center Many in-commuters

Case study“Lisbon municipality”

Case study“System Dimension” Dimensioning Criteria

Population, Service Area, Mobility Generators, Cycling Infrastructure, Distance between Stations, Overall distribution, Bike/Dock Ratio, Asymmetric Sizes

Two scenarios: Scenario A: Ideal considering planning

& operational requirements15KM2 – 174 Stations – 3120 Bikes

Scenario B: 2015 Municipality of Lisbon RFP12KM2 – 140 Stations – 1410 Bikes

Case study“System Dimension” One key lesson to be learned from the

experiences of various cities is that the program scale may influence the system attractiveness.

The impacts and externalities of this system, as it is well known, go far beyond the simple analysis of the financial balance.

  Implementation Area (km2)

% Lisbon Area

% Population considere

d

Total number

of stations

  Bike numbers

Average Number of Daily uses

  Investment Operational costs   Total

Balance

Scenario A 14,5 17,1% 28% 174  3120 ≈12 500  19 million € 5 million €   XScenario B 11,6 13,8% 22% 140 1410 ≈5 600 9 million €2,5 million €   Y

Methodology

Our goal consists in assessing another important benefit of bike sharing systems that has important (positive) effects in western societies.

National economies are affected by the consumption and production of different products.

If a certain product is imported, it contributes to the reduction of the GDP while if a certain product is locally, regionally or nationally produced it can have important multiplier effects in that given economy.

1st order impactsSavings and other (hidden) costs

So, if households in a certain country shift their consumption towards national production they will end up benefiting their economy, production and, consequently, employment.

A bike sharing system is an investment that can have a critical contribution to the decrease in the consumption of products such as: Fuel Public transportation Cars and their parts

All this products are imported or use a large share of imported inputs

1st order impactsSavings and other (hidden) costs

Following the results and data observed in other cities that recently implemented such systems, we were able to estimate that the increase in bicycle use would result: In a decrease in the use of private car

3.655 car trips // 1.675 car trips every day 7.822 kms // 3.219 kms by car every day 256.943 Liters per year // 105 744 liters per year 613 tones // 252 tones CO2 emissions every year

At current prices 334 000 € // 137 400 € saved every year

2nd order impactsIndirect and Induced Effects

To evaluate the macroeconomic effects of such changes (affecting the household consumption pattern) we used an Input-Output model to the Portuguese economy. Based on 2007 data Portuguese statistical data This modelling approach does not simply take into

account the direct effects but it also estimates the indirect and induced effects that may result from changes in the economy.

More information in: Ferreira et al. (2014) Economic, social, energy and

environmental assessment of inter-municipality commuting: The case of Portugal, Energy Policy

2nd order impactsIndirect and Induced Effects

Assumption: money saved by the households was now spent in buying additional products.

Consequence: the new consumption has a higher share of locally produced, environmentally friendly products.

So, the results including the multiplier effects associated with the new consumption patterns allow to estimate that: Scenario A

515.000 € increase in the economic activity (GDP) per year Scenario B

212.000€ increase in the economic activity(GDP) per year

So, the scenarios have different macroeconomic impacts and the most expensive scenarios can result in a improved situation in economic terms.

Conclusions and Future Work This is still a preliminary work that needs to be

improved and the attractiveness and effectiveness of both scenarios better explored.

The proposed application is also suitable to assess the impacts of bike sharing systems that are already operating. Indeed, in such cases, it can benefit from better and

more reliable data.

In economies dependent on oil imports, cities and regions’ development grounded in the use of alternative sustainable transportation modes contributes to a supplementary positive effect.

Conclusions and Future Work This is still a preliminary work that needs to be

improved and the attractiveness and effectiveness of both scenarios better explored.

The proposed application is also suitable to assess the impacts of bike sharing systems that are already operating. Indeed, in such cases, it can benefit from better and

more reliable data.

In economies dependent on oil imports, cities and regions’ development grounded in the use of alternative sustainable transportation modes contributes to a supplementary positive effect.

SDG

Thank you!joao.ferreira@fe.uc.ptgil@ordenaracidade.pt