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A Crise de 2008. Mito e Realidade

Antony P. Mueller (UFS)

FIDE (Fórum Interdisciplinar de Direito e Economia)

Curitiba, 18 de Novembro de 2014

PIB agregado Estados Unido, Euro área, Japão e Reino Unido – potencial e tendência 2000-2014

Política monetária “agressiva”

Realidade da política monetária na crise

“Quantitative Easing” (QE) – Afrouxamento quantitativo

Inflação de preços

Taxas de desemprego

Regulamentação da bolsa de valores

Regulamentação financeira - Dodd-Frank Act

Basileia 3

Agências governamentais de controle e supervisão dos mercados financeiros

• U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)• Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)• Federal Reserve System ("Fed")• Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)• Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)• National Credit Union Administration (NCUA)• Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS)• Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB)

Regulamentação desde 2010http://www.davispolkportal.com/infographic/july2013infographic.html

Gastos para “welfare”

Gastos para “welfare” em por centos do PIB

Dívida pública dos Estados Unidos 1970-2014

Quociente da dívida pública (D/PIB)

Base monetária

Taxa básica (federal funds rate) desde 1954

Federal Funds Rate 2004-2014

M1, M2, M3

Crescimento econômico pela poupança

Crescimento econômico pela tecnologia

Ciclo de negócios

Metas da inflação na perspectiva da ATBC

Referências• BIS (2008). Bank for Intrnational Settlements, 78th Annual Report of the Bank for International

Settlemement. Basel: BIS

• BIS (2009). Bank for International Settlements. 79th Annual Reporto of the Bank for InternationalSettlements. Basel: BIS

• Calomiris e Haber (2014): Charles W. Calomiris and Stephen H. Haber. Fragile by Design: The Political Originsof Banking Crises and Scarce Credit. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press

• Hoppe (2001): Hans-Hermann Hoppe. Democracy. The God that Failed. The Economics and Politics ofMonarchy, Democracy, and Natural Order. New Brunswick and London: Transaction Publishers.

• Mueller (2004). Antony P. Mueller. Bubble or New Era? Monetary Aspects of the New Economy, in: Markets, Information and Communication. Austrian Perspective on the Internet Economy. Edited by Jack Birner andPierre Garrouste (Foundation of the Market Economy). London and New York: Routledge

• Mueller (2014): Antony P. Mueller. Beyond Keynes and the Classics. Outline of the Goods Side/Money SideModel of the Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Configurations. SSRN. Social Science Research Network. January 20, 2014 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2382233

• De Soto (2006). Jesús Huerta de Soto. Money, Bank Credit and Economic Cycles. Auburn, Ala.: Ludwig von Mises Institute

• Volcker e Gyohten (1992): Paul Volcker and Toyoo Gyohten. Changing Fortunes. The World’s Money and theThreat to American Leadership. New York: Times Books

Contato e mais recursos

• antonymueller@gmail.com

• www.continentaleconomics.com

• www.economianova.blogspot.com

• www.socec.blogspot.com