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A Crise de 2008. Mito e Realidade
Antony P. Mueller (UFS)
FIDE (Fórum Interdisciplinar de Direito e Economia)
Curitiba, 18 de Novembro de 2014
PIB agregado Estados Unido, Euro área, Japão e Reino Unido – potencial e tendência 2000-2014
Política monetária “agressiva”
Realidade da política monetária na crise
“Quantitative Easing” (QE) – Afrouxamento quantitativo
Inflação de preços
Taxas de desemprego
Regulamentação da bolsa de valores
Regulamentação financeira - Dodd-Frank Act
Basileia 3
Agências governamentais de controle e supervisão dos mercados financeiros
• U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)• Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)• Federal Reserve System ("Fed")• Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)• Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)• National Credit Union Administration (NCUA)• Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS)• Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB)
Regulamentação desde 2010http://www.davispolkportal.com/infographic/july2013infographic.html
Gastos para “welfare”
Gastos para “welfare” em por centos do PIB
Dívida pública dos Estados Unidos 1970-2014
Quociente da dívida pública (D/PIB)
Base monetária
Taxa básica (federal funds rate) desde 1954
Federal Funds Rate 2004-2014
M1, M2, M3
Crescimento econômico pela poupança
Crescimento econômico pela tecnologia
Ciclo de negócios
Metas da inflação na perspectiva da ATBC
Referências• BIS (2008). Bank for Intrnational Settlements, 78th Annual Report of the Bank for International
Settlemement. Basel: BIS
• BIS (2009). Bank for International Settlements. 79th Annual Reporto of the Bank for InternationalSettlements. Basel: BIS
• Calomiris e Haber (2014): Charles W. Calomiris and Stephen H. Haber. Fragile by Design: The Political Originsof Banking Crises and Scarce Credit. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press
• Hoppe (2001): Hans-Hermann Hoppe. Democracy. The God that Failed. The Economics and Politics ofMonarchy, Democracy, and Natural Order. New Brunswick and London: Transaction Publishers.
• Mueller (2004). Antony P. Mueller. Bubble or New Era? Monetary Aspects of the New Economy, in: Markets, Information and Communication. Austrian Perspective on the Internet Economy. Edited by Jack Birner andPierre Garrouste (Foundation of the Market Economy). London and New York: Routledge
• Mueller (2014): Antony P. Mueller. Beyond Keynes and the Classics. Outline of the Goods Side/Money SideModel of the Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Configurations. SSRN. Social Science Research Network. January 20, 2014 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2382233
• De Soto (2006). Jesús Huerta de Soto. Money, Bank Credit and Economic Cycles. Auburn, Ala.: Ludwig von Mises Institute
• Volcker e Gyohten (1992): Paul Volcker and Toyoo Gyohten. Changing Fortunes. The World’s Money and theThreat to American Leadership. New York: Times Books
Contato e mais recursos
• www.continentaleconomics.com
• www.economianova.blogspot.com
• www.socec.blogspot.com