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32

Table1: Descriptive statistics: Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. ----------------------------------------------- tropical | 4725 .6962963 .4599049 CW | 4725 .1456085 .3527506 malaria | 3320 173339.9 653838.2 REF | 4725 47937.17 247356.9 MCID | 3920 .5989092 .4206092 hospitals | 744 3.046868 2.896242 PHYS | 1122 .7477291 .9565076 RURAL | 4520 0.603536 0.237456 DR | 4725 .0916402 .2885479 africa | 4725 .3851852 .4866905 REF2 | 4725 43128.07 241944.9

REF1 | 4725 23952.93 104365.5 REF3 | 4725 19470.86 91359.84 IPHYS | 4482 .5494288 .7643114 Gdp pc | 3568 2718.874 4619.588 IRRIG | 3901 1395198 5688199

Page 39: 6 }| ?} @}@ ?t| @*@h @G hi i?| @ht *i @ | ?} uLh |i 4 h@U ...montalvo/sec1034/mal.pdffrqglwlrqv dqg vrfldo frqgllrqwv/ zklkf duh uhodwhg zlwk xqvwdeoh srsxodwlrqv ru pryhphqwv ri shrsoh1

33

Table 2A: Regression results: All refugees (all asylum countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF 0.055

(1.37) 0.189 (2.34)

0.052 (1.23)

0.023 (0.51)

0.019 (0.44)

0.016 (0.36)

RURAL -100.91 (-7.31)

-224.33 (-3.72)

-142.86 (-8.84)

-144.09 (-8.25)

-146.21 (-8.34)

-162.25 (-8.65)

PHYS -202.49 (-2.55)

IPHYS -258.24 (-4.96)

-317.40 (-5.43)

-317.67 (-5.43)

-321.33 (-5.25)

IRRIG 0.040 (4.19)

0.040 (4.27)

0.038 (3.94)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes*

N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant Table 2B: Regression results: All Refugees (only asylum tropical countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF 0.887

(6.71) 1.448 (7.18)

0.865 (6.52)

0.871 (6.06)

0.875 (6.08)

0.865 (5.90)

RURAL -123.45 (-7.18)

-121.54 (-3.35)

-156.13 (-7.83)

-161.03 (-7.39)

-163.22 (-7.46)

-175.58 (-7.58)

PHYS -142.53 (-1.41)

IPHYS -233.43 (-3.28)

-249.08 (-3.06)

-246.79 (-3.03)

-265.29 (-3.15)

IRRIG 0.004 (0.08)

-0.003 (-0.06)

-0.008 (-0.15)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes N 2295 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics

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34

Table3A: Regression results: Refugees from tropical countries (all asylum countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF -0.042

(-0.97) -0.045 (-0.57)

-0.045 (-1.04)

-0.071 (-1.53)

-0.076 (-1.63)

-0.078 (-1.63)

REF1 1.176 (8.03)

2.354 (9.48)

1.147 (7.82)

1.146 (7.34)

1.159 (7.41)

1.146 (7.15)

RURAL -87.56 -83.26 (-2.87)

-127.06 (-7.88)

-128.12 (-7.35)

-130.67 (-7.47)

-145.64 (-7.77)

PHYS -168.19 (-2.25)

IPHYS -241.25 (-4.68)

-297.26 (-5.12)

297.15 (-5.12)

-299.93 (-4.94)

IRRIG 0.038 (4.09)

0.039 (4.17)

0.037 (3.86)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes*

N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant Table 3B: : Regression results: Refugees from tropical countries (only asylum tropical countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF -0.071

(-0.29) -0.052 (-0.16)

-0.069 (-0.28)

-0.067 (-0.26)

-0.058 (-0.22)

-0.060 (-0.22)

REF1 1.334 (4.57)

2.372 (5.82)

1.303 (4.46)

1.317 (4.20)

1.312 (4.18)

1.299 (4.06)

RURAL -117.80 (-6.87)

-101.31 (-2.88)

-149.17 (-7.53)

-153.65 (-7.06)

-155.85 (-7.13)

-168.00 (-7.26)

PHYS -115.20 (-1.17)

IPHYS -223.11 (-3.15)

-236.32 (-2.91)

-234.11 (-2.89)

-249.94 (-2.97)

IRRIG 0.004 (0.07)

-0.003 (-0.06)

-0.008 (-0.14)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes

N 2295 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics

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35

Table 4A: Regression results: Refugees from civil war (all asylum countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF -0.212

(-1.05) -0.151 (-0.56)

-0.229 (-1.14)

-0.255 (-1.20)

-0.255 (-1.19)

-0.264 (-1.21)

REF2 0.279 (1.37)

0.368 (1.31)

0.290 (1.43)

0.287 (1.34)

0.283 (1.32)

0.289 (1.32)

RURAL -101.03 (-7.32)

-113.65 (-3.70)

-143.12 (-8.86)

-144.36 (-8.27)

-146.43 (-8.35)

-162.52 (-8.66)

PHYS -202.92 (-2.56)

IPHYS -259.07 (-4.98)

-318.23 (-5.44)

-318.51 (-5.44)

-322.10 (-5.26)

IRRIG 0.039 (4.18)

0.040 (4.25)

0.038 (3.92)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes* N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant Table 4B: : Regression results: Refugees from civil war (only asylum tropical countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF 0.182

(0.82) 0.192 (0.72)

0.158 (0.71)

0.157 (0.66)

0.156 (0.65)

0.150 (0.61)

REF2 0.938 (3.89)

2.283 (6.68)

0.940 (3.90)

0.954 (3.68)

0.960 (3.71)

0.955 (3.62)

RURAL -120.74 (-7.04)

-102.83 (-2.96)

-153.54 (-7.77)

-158.30 (-7.28)

-160.46 (-7.35)

-172.55 (-7.47)

PHYS -150.17 (-1.55)

IPHYS -234.48 (-3.31)

-250.12 (-3.08)

-247.84 (-3.05)

-266.23 (-3.17)

IRRIG 0.004 (0.08)

-0.003 (-0.07)

-0.008 (-0.16)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes

N 2294 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics

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36

Table5A: Regression results: Refugees from civil war of tropical countries (all asylum countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF -0.034

(-0.80) -0.015 (-0.21)

-0.038 (-0.88)

-0.063 (-1.38)

-0.068 (-1.48)

-0.070 (-1.49)

REF3 1.408 (9.33)

2.997 (11.52)

1.378 (9.12)

1.382 (8.59)

1.391 (8.64)

1.378 (8.35)

RURAL -86.46 (-6.31)

-74.31 (-2.63)

-125.44 (-7.81)

-126.41 (-7.28)

-128.91 (-7.40)

-143.69 (-7.70)

PHYS -144.59 (-1.99)

IPHYS -238.24 (-4.64)

-293.46 (-5.08)

-293.60 (-5.08)

-296.14 (-4.90)

IRRIG 0.038 (4.04)

0.039 (4.14)

0.037 (3.83)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes*

N 3214 789 3194 2863 2863 2722 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant Table5B: Regression results: Refugees from civil war of tropical countries (only asylum tropical countries) Dependent variable: malaria incidence Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 REF 0.113

(0.63) 0.182 (0.77)

0.104 (0.58)

0.106 (0.55)

0.105 (0.55)

0.101 (0.51)

REF3 1.408 (6.29)

2.888 (8.59)

1.387 (6.18)

1.410 (5.84)

1.417 (5.86)

1.406 (5.71)

RURAL -116.12 (-6.80)

-90.30 (-2.66)

-147.08 (-7.46)

-151.26 (-6.98)

-153.32 (-7.04)

-165.12 (-7.17)

PHYS -99.92 (-1.06)

IPHYS -220.32 (-3.12)

-234.43 (-2.90)

-232.15 (-2.87)

-248.22 (-2.97)

IRRIG 0.006 (0.11)

-0.002 (-0.04)

-0.007 (-0.13)

DR Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

MCID Yes

N 2295 539 2275 1991 1991 1919 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics

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37

Table 6: Analysis of Robustness. Dependent variable: Incidence of Malaria Model All countries Only tropical

countries Without Africa, China, India

REF 0.111 (0.50)

0.218 (0.89)

0.262 (0.50)

REF3 1.414 (8.29)

1.623 (4.48)

0.340 (4.03)

REF2 -0.189 (-0.84)

-0.314 (-0.81)

-0.055 (-1.05)

RURAL -143.01 (-7.66)

-164.51 (-7.14)

6.23 (-1.65)

IPHYS -294.96 (-4.87)

-245.28 (-2.93)

9.38 (1.02)

IRRIG 0.037 (3.83)

-0.006 (-0.12)

0.025 (5.85)

DR Yes

Yes

Yes

CW Yes

Yes

Yes*

MCID Yes*

Yes Yes

N 2722 1919 1643 Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics *significant

Page 44: 6 }| ?} @}@ ?t| @*@h @G hi i?| @ht *i @ | ?} uLh |i 4 h@U ...montalvo/sec1034/mal.pdffrqglwlrqv dqg vrfldo frqgllrqwv/ zklkf duh uhodwhg zlwk xqvwdeoh srsxodwlrqv ru pryhphqwv ri shrsoh1

Figure 1. Cases of malaria and civil wars.Source: WHO Weekly Epidemiological Record (1999) and Doyle and Sambanis (2000).

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Number of civil wars Total Without India and China

Page 45: 6 }| ?} @}@ ?t| @*@h @G hi i?| @ht *i @ | ?} uLh |i 4 h@U ...montalvo/sec1034/mal.pdffrqglwlrqv dqg vrfldo frqgllrqwv/ zklkf duh uhodwhg zlwk xqvwdeoh srsxodwlrqv ru pryhphqwv ri shrsoh1

Figura 2: Number of African countries reporting and number of cases.Source: WHO Weekly Epidemiological Record (1999).

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Number of reporting countries Cases without China and India

Page 46: 6 }| ?} @}@ ?t| @*@h @G hi i?| @ht *i @ | ?} uLh |i 4 h@U ...montalvo/sec1034/mal.pdffrqglwlrqv dqg vrfldo frqgllrqwv/ zklkf duh uhodwhg zlwk xqvwdeoh srsxodwlrqv ru pryhphqwv ri shrsoh1

Figure 3. Refugees and cases of malaria.Sources: UNHCR and Weekly Epidemiological Record (1999).

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Cases of malaria Refugees