ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

OF EPAC’S IN BRAZIL

Velo-city Dublin

June 2019

Daniel Guth

Motorized vehicles in Brazil: 100.094.725(Denatran, 2018)

Investments + financing

Insurance Fuel

Maintenance Parking Toll

Traffic Jam/ loss of

production

Average cost of na automobile in São Paulo: R$ 12.830,00/month

Recife

Rio de Janeiro

São Paulo

Cars vs. Pedelecs

Each R$ 1 (1l gas = R$ 4,20)2 km

Each R$ 1

100 km

0km

150km

75km

VS

(1l gas = R$ 4,20)

Pedelecs are

53 timesm o r e E F F I C I E N T

t h a n cars.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

0km

75km

150km

EPAC Strategy

Market data,

economic studies

and research

Legislation & regulation

EPAC use

campaigning

EPAC Parliamentary

front (national

level), w/ 12

member of

Congress

Working group for

EPAC market

development since 2017

90 companies and

associations affiliated -15 EPAC industries

National

campaign for

lower EPAC taxes

2007-2016

National BicycleProduction

PIA/IBGE (2016)

TOTAL BICYCLES (HS 8712) IMPORTS IN BRAZIL

What about EPAC’s?

May 2009 - Resolution 315

classified all “EPACs" as

mopeds, without making any

distinction. Limiting to the

maximum weight of 140 kg

and maximum speed of

50km/h.

November 2013 - Resolution 465

establishes the correct

distinction for EPAC’s, setting up

new criteria and equating

EPAC’s to to human propeled

bicycles regarding all traffic

rules.

- Engine power up to 350 watts

- Pedal assisted up to 25 km/h

- Lights, helmet obligation

- No acceleration

BRAZILIAN EPAC MARKET

EPAC sales represented a

market share of 0,30% in 2016

and 0,70% in 2018.

Sales of electric bicycles

have shown a

compound annual

growth rate (CAGR) of

around 19% since 2010

Fonte: CONEBI (Países Europeus), IBGE (Brasil), Presto (EUA) e FMI. Elaborado por Sidera Consult.

EPAC SALES/THOUSAND INHABITANTS | 2016

EPAC’s: BICYCLE RETAILERS| 2018

3 (2%)

5 (3%)

7 (4%)

21 (11%)

25 (13%)

49 (25%)

85 (44%)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Falta de regulamentação

Não acredita ou não confia no produto

Falta de técnicos/mecânicos

Falta de mercado/demanda

Porque ainda não encontrei fornecedores

Porque este segmento não me interessa

Porque são muito caras para meu públicoatendido

Why are you not selling EPAC’s yet? (main reason)

20%

80%

Percentage of bike shops selling EPAC’sin Brazil

Comercializa bicicletas elétricasNão comercializa

US$ EU USA Japão BrasilBE BC BE BC BE BC BE BC

II (%) 8.00 14

.0

0

0.00 11

.0

0

0.00 0.

00

20.00 35.00

Imposto nacional (%) 15.00 15

.0

0

6,51 6,

51

8.00 8.

00

IPI% 35

PIS% 2,1

COFINS%

9,65

ICMS%

18,00

IPI% 10

PIS% 2,1

COFINS% 9,65

ICMS%

18,00

Total 1,242 1,

31

1

1,065.1 1,

18

2.

15

1,080 1,

08

0

1,977 1,886.62

EPAC TAXES

For the hypothesis below, we compared an exemplary price for the two types of

bicycle ("BE" - electric and "BC" - conventional) assuming it to be $1,000:

58%19%

23%

Sim Não sabe Não

Do you intend to sell EPAC’s over the next years?

EPAC’S cost for consumers:• Most expensive: R$ 37.000,00 • Cheapest: R$ 2.500,00• Average cost: R$ 4.000,00

61%25%

10%

2% 2%

EPAC’S sold, per type

Urbana MTB Dobrável Cargueira Infantil

EPAC’s: BICYCLE RETAILERS| 2018

CASE STUDY: FARIA LIMA

AVENUE CYCLE LANE

(SÃO PAULO)

6%

94%

bicicletas elétricas em 2019

Bicicleta elétrica (todas) Bicicleta comum

CASE STUDY: BIKE LANE - AV. FARIA LIMA| 2013, 2015, 2018, 2019

6366

32 16 2 8 14681

110

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Bicycle On foot Skate Scooter (non-electric)

Mopeds Electricunicycle

Scooter(electric)

Tricycle

Total trips (2019) - from 6am to 10pm

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

6h-7h 7h-8h 8h-9h 9h-10h

10h-11h

11h-12h

12h-13h

13h-14h

14h-15h

15h-16h

16h-17h

17h-18h

18h-19h

19h-20h

Cyclists per hour (float)

2013 2015 2018 2019

123,29 138,64

345,71

408,29

0,00

50,00

100,00

150,00

200,00

250,00

300,00

350,00

400,00

450,00

Average cyclists per hour

2013 2015 2018 2019

2019 - from 6am to 10pm

Bicycles per type Total de viagens Percentual

Individual ordinary bicycles 2616 41,09%

Shared Bicycles 3290 51,68%

Pedelecs 414 6,50%

Cargo-bikes 46 0,72%

Total: 6366 100%

6%

94%

bicicletas elétricas em 2019

Bicicleta elétrica (todas) Bicicleta comum

CASE STUDY: BIKE LANE - AV. FARIA LIMA| 2013, 2015, 2018, 2019

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Shared bicycles vs all other cycles - total trips from 6am to 8pm

Shared Bicycles All other cycles

1735

421

371

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Pedelec trips

1735

329348

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2013 2015 2018 2019

PRIVATE PEDELEC TRIPS - FROM 6AM TO 8PM

0 0

92

23

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2013 2015 2018 2019

SHARED PEDELEC TRIPS - FROM 6AM TO 8PM

Findings & Conclusion

FINDINGS & CONCLUSION

Electric bicycles could play a key role in urban mobility, logistics, quality of life in Brazilian cities. Also they could be decisive in modal shifting from cars.

In order to boost EPACs in Brazil, the cost of the product and the lack of cyclingpolicies – such as bikelanes – are the two main factors inhibiting EPAC’spopularization.

Comparative analysis w/ other countries showed that the market for EPACs is even more encouraged (tax breaks) than that of conventional bicycles. Brazil is an exception.

Data shows EPACs are enlarging bicycle economy in Brazil instead of cannibalizingit.