CENTRO DE PREVISÃO DE TEMPO E ESTUDOS CLIMÁTICOS INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAIS

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PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IN THE SUMMER SEASON IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti. COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA IN THE WINTER SEASON IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Gabriela Müller Kelen Andrade - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of CENTRO DE PREVISÃO DE TEMPO E ESTUDOS CLIMÁTICOS INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAIS

  • PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IN THE SUMMER SEASONIN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGEIracema Fonseca de Albuquerque CavalcantiCENTRO DE PREVISO DE TEMPO E ESTUDOS CLIMTICOSINSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAISCOLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA IN THE WINTER SEASONIN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Gabriela Mller Kelen Andrade Iracema FA Cavalcanti

  • ANOMALOUS PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH AMERICANATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILITYENSO CONDITIONS (EL NINO / LA NINA)TELECONNECTIONSINTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONBEHAVIOUR OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEMSBLOCKING SITUATIONSETC

  • DROUGHT IN 2005DROUGHT IN 2000/2001DROUGHT IN 1997/1998

  • THE QUESTION IS:WILL THE ANOMALIES CHANGE IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA? HOW THE INTENSITY OF NATURAL VARIABILITY CAN CHANGE IN THE FUTURE?

    MODELS

  • CPTEC/COLA AGCM DJF PRECIPITATIONCMAP/CAMS

  • Extreme wet years compositeExtreme dry years compositeSOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL (50W-40W; 15-25S)

  • Extreme wet years composite Extreme dry years composite

  • IPCC-4 MODEL SIMULATIONS20 CENTURY SRES A2 PRE-INDUSTRIAL1% CO2 INCREASE MODELSHADLEY HADCM3GFDLHADGENMRIECHAMCANADIAN

  • Increase from CO2= 286.05 ppm at 1% /year rate to doubling, then constant to year 280. Other gases cte from 18601% CO2 EXPERIMENT 20TH CENTURY EXPERIMENTConsiders all anthropogenic forcings during the period of 1860 to 2000 (140 years)EXPERIMENTSSRES A2High degree of global economic development (means high concentration of greenhouse gases)(2000-2100) Forcings agents representative of 1860 conditions constant. Include all greenhouses gases (280 years)PRE-INDUSTRIAL EXPERIMENT

  • PERIODS OF ANALYSISLAST 51 YEARS FROM EACH SIMULATION

    DJF (S.H. SUMMER)

    20 CENTURY : 1949-1999

    SRES A2: 2048- 2098 OR 2049-2099

  • 20 CENTURYDJF 1979/1980 TO 1999/2000GFDLMRIHADCM3OBSERVED PRECIPITATIONMODELS SIMULATIONS

  • HADGENECHAMOBSERVEDPRECIPITATIONCANADIANMODELS SIMULATIONS

  • Difference between two periods in the pre-industrial experiment (year 71 to 280)- (year 11 to 70).

    The changes are very small, consistent with the absence of anthropogenic forcings.PRE-INDUSTRIAL EXPERIMENT GFDL

  • The impact on precipitation is seen in the region of South Atlantic Convergence Zone and Southeastern South America considering the two experiments.DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 1%CO2 AND PRE-INDUSTRIAL EXPERIMENT GFDLDIFFERENCES BETWEEN 1%CO2 AND 20th century EXPERIMENTS GFDL ANNUAL GFDL

  • GFDL (USA) DIFFERENCES (FUTURE -20TH CENTURY)

    DJF1%CO2SRES A2

  • HADCM3 (UK) DIFFERENCES (FUTURE -20TH CENTURY)1%CO2SRES A2DJF

  • GFDL20 CENTURYLAST PERIOD 1% CO2 INCREASE250 hPa850 hPa

  • Difference between SRES A2 and 20th century wind flow HADLEY.

  • EXTREME MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES DJFAverage of precipitation anomalies over several areas of South America5 extreme years (+ and -)20th century and SRES A2Hadley and GFDL

  • WAmazonia E Amazonia

    N La PlataS La PlataAREAS

  • AREASSENE

  • GFDL

  • AMAZONIA WESTERN SECTOR20th centuryA2 ANOMALIES RELATED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF 20TH CENTURYPRECIPITATION ANOMALIESEASTERN SECTORGFDL

  • PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES (AMAZONIA)GFDL

  • LA PLATA NORTHERN SECTORLA PLATA SOUTHERN SECTORGFDL

  • PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES LA PLATA SOUTHERN SECTORGFDL

  • NORTHEAST BRAZILGFDL

  • PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES NORTHEAST BRAZIL

  • SOUTHEAST (50W-40W; 15S-25S)

  • PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES SOUTHEAST BRAZIL

  • HADLEY

  • HADLEYAMAZONIA WESTERN SECTOREASTERN SECTOR20th century A2 ANOMALIES

  • NORTHEAST BRAZIL

  • LA PLATA NORTHERN SECTORLA PLATA SOUTHERN SECTOR

  • SOUTHEAST Brazil

  • HADLEY

  • 20th centurySRES A2 PRECIPITATION ANOMALY CORRELATIONS AREA 15S-25S; 40W-50W (SOUTHEAST) GFDLGFDLHADCM3HADCM3

  • EXTREME PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES SOUTHEAST (50W-40W; 15S-25S) 20th centuryGFDLHADCM3GFDLHADCM3

    NEGATIVE ANOMALIES

    POSITIVE ANOMALIES

  • EXTREME PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES SOUTHEAST (50W-40W; 15S-25S) SRES A2GFDLHADCM3

  • COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTH AMERICACNPq colaboration project Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil.

    Objective: Identify frequency and intensity of extreme cold air outbreaks in the present climate and in the future.

    Will the global warming affect the frequency and intensity of the cold air outbreaks?

  • TEMPERATURE CHANGES (annual) GFDL1% CO2 increase preindustrial1% CO2 increase 20 century

  • Frequency of cold air over Brazil, Argentina and UruguayDaily data at (925hPa), 850 hPaSLP, meridional wind and Temperature

    Average over areas52W-57W; 23S-28S (Brazil)52W-57W; 28S-33S (Uruguay)65-60W; 33-38S (Argentina)

  • criteriumTemperature interval (0-2.5c , < 0c)

    Reduction of temperature (5-8c; 8-10c; >10c)

    Increase of SLP and southerly flow at 850hPa

  • ARGENTINA STATIONSOBS: TEMP. AT 2mReanalysis: 850hPa

  • TEMP. 850 hPa 0-2.50 c1960-1990FUTURE65-60W33-38SArgentina

    Dados para Grficos

    Tabela NCEP Temperatura

    Ano1960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990

    23S28< 01111

    0 - 2,5211111121111

    2,5 - 5231212121112121123425

    28S33< 0212134211311111123

    0 - 2,54253438323432353623232132115746

    2,5 - 58612710101057108939751148711761010531210611

    38S33< 08276787544443553344273376317544

    0 - 2,5108791781095101191011781068910981316581110106

    2,5 - 517142316181716181815211714171616171312111411141817141514211313

    Tabela para Pesquisa GFDL

    Ano1960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990

    23S28< 0132231131311212121

    0 - 2,5123433423333214262123112221

    2,5 - 5231535542542656345252362134331

    28S33< 046768885765761074105748103476577

    0 - 2,55134912101010139571211139914911108876681098

    2,5 - 516129131513813121010109131911101761714149810169192011

    38S33< 014189161717151920131515201419121722151717151514171613191417

    0 - 2,5161412171617182015101516171819242118151716131516171817151814

    2,5 - 5212319212414162123151722202115212214191915192023191917192023

    Tabela para Pesquisa HAD_Temp_850

    Ano1960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990

    23S28< 012

    0 - 2,513121113121121211112

    2,5 - 5332231313311332241213232333

    28S33< 021312123111112311122322212422

    0 - 2,55253985452575536346353339555467

    2,5 - 59668108101010101613616713118129681310156610876

    38S33< 0858987547310878766757379513847754

    0 - 2,5121211148131171471612101412121098891111121311812101115

    2,5 - 5141913171818179191418182119221922161991612212118221713142119

    < 0_23S28

    1960

    1961

    1962

    1963

    1964

    19651

    1966

    19673

    1968

    19691

    19702

    19712

    13

    19731

    19741

    13

    19761

    1977

    13

    1979

    19801

    1

    19821

    19832

    198412

    1985

    1986

    19872

    19881

    19892

    19901

    NCEP

    GFDL

    HADDirio

    Anos

    Nmero de Ocorrncias

    BRASIL - Categoria < 0

    0 - 2,5_23S28

    19601

    1961

    213

    1963

    196421

    12

    131

    196741

    196831

    133

    19704

    197121

    13

    19733

    197432

    197531

    197621

    19771

    14

    122

    198061

    22

    19821

    198322

    131

    111

    198611

    19872

    121

    19892

    112

    NCEP

    GFDL

    HADDirio

    Anos

    Nmero de Ocorrncias

    BRASIL - Categoria 0 - 2,5

    2,5 - 5_23S28

    23

    19612

    333

    112

    196452

    233

    151

    196753

    196841

    19692

    253

    143

    221

    197361

    197453

    163

    132

    142

    197854

    221

    152

    221

    198233

    162

    123

    21

    19863

    342

    433

    233

    513

    NCEP

    GFDL

    HADDirio

    Anos

    Nmero de Ocorrncias

    Latitude 23S28 - Categoria 2,5 - 5

    < 0_28S33

    22

    141

    263

    19631

    17

    362

    481

    282

    196883

    151

    171

    197161

    351

    197371

    197462

    1103

    197671

    197741

    1101

    152

    172

    198143

    198282

    1983102

    132

    198541

    19867

    162

    254

    198972

    372

    NCEP

    GFDL

    HADDirio

    Anos

    Nmero de Ocorrncias

    Latitude 28S33 - Categoria < 0

    0 - 2,5_28S33

    45

    252

    5135

    343

    499

    3128

    8105

    3104

    2105

    3132

    495

    357

    275

    3125

    5113

    3136

    693

    294

    3146

    293

    3115

    2103

    183

    383

    279

    165

    165

    585

    7104

    496

    687

    NCEP

    GFDL

    HADDirio

    Anos

    Nmero de Ocorrncias

    Latitude 28S33 - Categoria 0 - 2,5

    2,5 - 5_28S33

    89

    6166

    12126

    798

    101310

    10158

    101310

    5810

    71310

    101210

    81016

    91013

    3106

    9916

    7137

    51913

    111111

    4108

    81712

    769