Mudanças ClimáticasBiodiversidade e Biogeoquímica

Jean Pierre Ometto (CCST/INPE)Mercedes Bustamante (UnB)Luiz A Martinelli (CENA/USP

Temas integradores da ConferênciaObservações e atribuição das mudanças climáticasSegurança alimentarSegurança hídricaSegurança energéticaSaúdeBiodiversidadeDesastres NaturaisMonitoramento de Gases de Efeito EstufaInterfaces Ciência e Políticas Públicas em Mudanças ClimáticasZonas Costeiras e OceanosAmazônia e REDDModelagem do Sistema TerrestreCenários climáticos para estudos de Impactos-Vulnerabilidade-Adaptação (IVA)

“Compartilhar realizações, sabedoria, conhecimento – sentido de uma rede !“ M.Silva

Main Anthropogenic Drivers threaten tropical Biodiversity

Habitat destruction and fragmentation, over-exploitation, invasive species

Network and ecosystem functioning level.

Loss of species can results in the loss of structure and functioning

(Morris , 2010).

Ecological functioning and ecosystem services are affected by the

replacement of biological diverse system by mono species systems.

Effects predicted in hydrological cylce, carbon stocks and flow,

nitrogen dynamic, plant productivity, soil fertility, among others.

Climate change can produce direct (change in temperature and

precipitation patterns) and indirect effect on biodiversity and ecosystem

services, including biogeochemical processes (for instance change in

invasive species dynamic, and fire regime);

Temperature and Precipitation as key factors for species distribution and, in general, abundance.

Climate and Biodiversity distribution

Temp. (C)

PPT(mm)

RCP 4.5

RCP 4.5

Projected future annual average temperature and precipitation

Figure SPM.5 | Maximum speeds at which species can move across landscapes (based on observations and models; vertical axis onleft), compared with speeds at which temperatures are projected to move across landscapes (climate velocities for temperature; vertical axis on right). Human interventions, such as transport or habitat fragmentation, can greatly increase or decrease speeds of movement. White boxes with black bars indicate ranges and medians of maximum movement speeds for trees, plants, mammals, plant-feeding insects (median not estimated), and freshwater mollusks. For RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for 2050–2090, horizontal lines show climate velocity for the global-land-area average and for large flat regions. Species with maximum speeds below each line are expected

to be unable to track warming in the absence of human intervention. [Figure 4-5]. IPCC AR%

Resourcers particioning

Specie diversity by major groups

Endemism and Hotspots

Hotspots => at least 1,500 vascular plants as endemics and hosting 30% or less of its original natural vegetation

Biodiversity Threatened Regions

Biodiversity Hotspots de High level of Endemism andfast loss of habitats

Wilderness areas(A) Historic (gray) and current (green) extent of all wilderness area, as well as the area lost since the early 1990s (red) across the world’s terrestrial biomes.(B) The wilderness area lost (red) and protected (gray) during 1990–2015.

Watson et al., 2016

Highly ‘bio-diverse’ countries

Latin America and the Caribbean is the region with the biggest number of highly diverse countries

•50% of the tropical forests•33% of the mammals•35% of the reptiles•41% of birds species•50% of amphibious

Among the 17 nation that host 70% of the intire planet biodiversity, Brazil is the most megadiverse

Some important threats for biodiversity in Brazil (INCT)

) (IPCC, 2013, Nobre etla l, 2015)

Climate Change•For the higher emission scenario (RCP 8,5) – risk of changes in vegetation structure and forest impoverishment by the end of this century•Increase in the extinction risk up to 16%, being South America the region with the highest susceptibility to the extinction.•Extinction and changes in the distribution patters of native species, of cultural and nutritional value from Cerrado, shall cause socioeconomic impacts by 2080. •Socioeconomic impacts also associated to reduction of pollinators already in 2030, for instance, native bee population at the Atlantic Forest region shall impact natural vegetation as well as agricultural production. Impact would worsen, reaching extinction of these insects by 2080. •Biodiversity loss in the Brazilian coastal zones, in 2100 would impact food availability and regional

“Vulnerable system”

Hierarchy Tipe Case

Biomes Mata Atlântica Biodiversity hotspot

Cerrado Biodiversity hotspot

Caatinga Desertification / sensitivity

Amazonia Savannization / sensitivity

Ecosystems High altitude High thermal sensitivity

Marine and coastal Sea level rising

Urban Heat waves

Species Threatened High ecological sensitivity

Amphibian High ecological sensitivity

Corals High ecological sensitivity

Plants, mammals, birds Shift south

Land use Change in the Brazilian Biomes

Sala et al. 2000 Science

Biodiversity Scenarios (2100)

Mudanças ClimáticasBiodiversidade e Biogeoquímica

Aquatic ecosystems responses to climatic changes in the semi-Arid region of Brazil (Caatinga)

Adapted from F Roland

Compilred information in the different biomes

Literature Review and Meta AnalysisData being compiled based on biome distribution.Non georrreferenced data was not considered

N stable isotopes (δ15N)

Species in the same habitat but uptaking different sources of nitrogen

N in vegetation (w/o legumes) N in disturbed vegetation (including legume)

Soil Carbon

Feeding Emissions calculation and modeling

Emissions CerradoIIIa Com Nacional

DGVMs have, in general, a poor representation of the plant funtional triatsdiversity in the tropics. This project contributed to: Developping a data base on functinal traits and temporal series on fenological responses to climatechange;

On the understanding of the effects of deforestaiton on thebiogeochemistry of Brazilian biomes: Example:

Significant stocks of N and P are lost from the ecosystem with forest clearing and burning

In the Amazon region, pasture grasses demand less N (grass N:P = 16), so the pasture remains P limited

Secondary forest vegetation requires more N (N:P = 35), so the depletion of N stocks during the pasture phase results in N limitation during regrowth of the secondary forest following pasture abandonment

Multiple burns accelerate the nutrient degradation process

Some further contribution

1-Tropical

evergreen

2-Tropical

deciduous

3-Temp.

evergreen

broadleaf

4-Temp.

evergreen

conifer

5-Temp.

deciduous6-Boreal

evergreen

7-Boreal

deciduous

8-Mixed

forest

9-

Savanna10-Grass.

Steppe

11-Dense

shrubland12-Open

shrubland

13-Tundra 14-Desert 15-Polar

desert /

rock / ice

IPSL-CM5A-LR

NorESM1-M

GFDL-ESM2MCSIRO-Mk-3-6-0

HadGEM2-ES

MRI-CGCM3

CCSM4

GISS-E2-R

MIROC5

Veg

etat

ion

Typ

e –

2050

: R

CP

4.5,

Lan

dU

SE

–O

FF

, F

IRE

-O

FF

IPSL-CM5A-LR

GFDL-ESM2MCSIRO-Mk-3-6-0

HadGEM2-ES

CCSM4

GISS-E2-R

MIROC5

Veg

etat

ion

Typ

e –

2050

: R

CP

4.5,

Lan

dU

SE

–O

N ,

FIR

E -

ON

MRI-CGCM3 NorESM1-M

1-Tropical

evergreen

2-Tropical

deciduous

3-Temp.

evergreen

broadleaf

4-Temp.

evergreen

conifer

5-Temp.

deciduous6-Boreal

evergreen

7-Boreal

deciduous

8-Mixed

forest

9-

Savanna10-Grass.

Steppe

11-Dense

shrubland12-Open

shrubland

13-Tundra 14-Desert 15-Polar

desert /

rock / ice

Díaz et al. (2015) “The IPBES conceptual framework – connecting nature and people”. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 14:1-16.