Potência Ambiental da Biodiversidade: um caminho inovador para o Brasil –

Relatório EspecialSumário para Tomadores de Decisão

Environmental Power of Biodiversity: an innovative path for Brazil – Special Report

Summary for Policymakers

Apoio:

Prof. Andrea Souza Santos, D.Sc.(COPPE-UFRJ, PBMC)

Environmental Power of Biodiversity: an innovative path for Brazil

Autores Coordenadores/ Coordinating Lead Authors:

Fabio Rubio Scarano (UFRJ, FBDS, BPBES)

Andrea Souza Santos (COPPE-UFRJ, PBMC)

Suzana Kahn (COPPE-UFRJ, PBMC)

Carlos A. Nobre (USP, PBMC)

Autores principais/ Lead Authors:

José Marengo (CEMADEN)

Jean Pierre Ometto (INPE)

Paula Ceotto (BPBES)

Rafael Loyola (UFG)

Aliny P. F. Pires (UFRJ, BPBES)

Juliana B. Ribeiro (Fundação Grupo Boticário)

Beatriz L. R. Carneiro (UFRJ, BPBES)

Revisores/ Reviewers: Ronaldo A. Christofoletti (UNIFESP) Tercio Ambrizzi (IAG-USP)

• analyzes scientific literature, especially from the Fifth AssessmentReport of IPCC, the reports of the Brazilian Panel on ClimateChange, the Intergovernmental Science Policy Platform onBiodiversity and Ecosystem Services and the Brazilian Platform ofBiodiversity and Ecosystem Services on the impacts on biodiversityand Brazilian ecosystems and the resulting socioecologicalvulnerability.

• Furthermore, from the revision of strategies and actions ofmitigation and adaptation to climate change based on ecosystems,this report discusses proposed innovative pathways to sustainabledevelopment for the country.

• The direction taken by the interaction among biodiversity, climateand socioeconomic development will change over time, in a manner either more or less favorable to Brazilian society, depending on the rate of transformation of the currentdevelopment model into a more sustainable model.

• The persistence of a business-as-usual scenario will imply the decline of natural systems of life support, acceleration in climate change and negative impacts on human well-being.

• In a scenario that foresees a sequence of negative interactions,climate change should become the main vector of biodiversity loss inthe country in the next decades, negatively affecting also its socio-economic development;

• the positive scenario looks to the implementation of strategiesadaptative to climate change that integrate nature conservation, andsocial and economic development.

• the impact of climate change could increase during the next decadeswith the mode of current development making natural and anthropicsystems extremely vulnerable; on the other hand, biodiversity cancontribute to establishing an adapted society, which with lowgreenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, mitigates the impacts ofclimate change.

Figura 1.1: Possible trajectories for interactionamong climate, biodiversity and developmentin Brazil.

• In a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario of emission of greenhouse gases, by 2070 there is a 90% probability of a temperature increase of 3-4°C, which can grow even larger by the end of the century in Brazil.

• Amazonia - Amazonia, there is a potential for savanization as a consequence of droughts and temperature increases of up to 4-6 °C in an *RCP8.5 scenario by 2100.

*Representative Concentration Pathways

• Brazil has an important role globally in relation to the biodiversity-climate-development nexus, but it shows conflicting positive and negative indicators.

• Ex.: Positives: the country counts on the large extents of its protected areas, a good framework of policies and plans for conservation and adaptation to climate change, and relative success in the reduction of deforestation rates in Amazonia in the recent past.

• Ex.: Negatives: the country shows alarming figures relating to climate change, including rates of deforestation that are increasing again in Amazonia and very high deforestation rates in the Cerradobiome, each with its corresponding impacts on sustainability.

Despite the good base of existing global agreements and national policies, what is still predominant in Brazil is the sectoral drawing of environmental policies, which frequently do not dialogue;

(e.g. biodiversity policies and climate policies) and development policies (e.g. agriculture, energy, cities (RE Figure 4.1)

• To integrate sectoral policies, or at least to create policy mixes combining environmental policies with developmental policies will therefore be essential to building a more sustainable development trajectory.

• Actions of Ecosystem-based Adaptation may result from policymixes or integrated policy designs. (RE Figure 4.2).

Cases of policies that do reconcile concerns about pro-environment bias with the interests of productive sectors, asin the case of livestock farming, as well as in some of theexamples shown in(RE Figure 4.1)

Actions of Ecosystem-based Adaptation may result from policy mixes or integrated policydesigns. (RE Figure 4.2).

• The risks of biodiversity loss and global warming will be importantvectors for the sustainable development of the country, providedthat there is a search for scientific progress and innovations,technology-based or not, combined with behavioral changes.

New products, new processes and new practices do not appear suddenly. Theyare based on innovative applications of scientific principles, originalconceptions and collective efforts. Therefore, a country aiming for progressand development needs to provide this creative multi-, inter- andtransdisciplinary environment, that allows innovation to exist.

• For Brazil to succeed, economic systems need to aim at betteroverall conditions of life and well-being instead of the meregrowth in the flow of goods and services in the short-term,impairing future sustainable prosperity.

This transformation implies incorporating environmental costs, both arisingfrom supplies used in production process, in the process itself, and the finaluse of products and services.

A country with a robust scientific basis is more resilient, has greaterproductivity, better jobs and more wealth, especially in the sustainableutilization of its land-based and water-based biodiversity potential.

• The importance of decarbonization and the maintenance ofbiodiversity has already been perceived worldwide and theincorporation of these concerns into the model of developmentand industrialization of each country is just a matter of time.

Decarbonization will probably be the most rapid technologicaltransformation of the last few centuries; even the digital revolution itselfis aligned with it. Brazil must decide if it wants to have a major orsecondary role in this process, as these changes go forward at an ever-increasing rate

• Brazil is a country with challenges as large as its potential- large territory and abundant natural resources;

- the country is a central player in the global production of food andbioenergy, besides generating commercial-scale power from severalsources of renewable energy (solar, wind, hydroelectric).

• On the other hand, environmental problems such as biodiversity loss, and air and water pollution need to be resolved.

• Brazil is faced with the challenge of creating an innovative bioeconomy based on biodiversity.

This new bioeconomy must assure the maintenance of natural systems, starting with appreciation of their cultural valuation, that is to say, the nation must wish to become an “economic power of biodiversity”, a concept much wider — and more difficult to implement — than that of an “environmental power”, this in addition to the matter of the inclusion of the majority of Brazilian poor farmers in the process.

As a matter of fact, world history lacks an example of a developed country in the category of “environmental power” or an “economic power of biodiversity”.

SOME RECOMMENDATIONS:

• To maintain, connect and expand protected natural areas is the best way to assure that ecosystem services can continue to be offered for the benefit of Brazilian and global society.

• An innovative look at biodiversity’s role is a great opportunity to make it a disruptive factor capable of leading to a more sustainable Brazilian economic model.

However, the difficulties in implementation of the REDD+ (Reduction of Emissions for Deforestation and Forest Degradation, plus sustainable forest management) mechanism, of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 10 years after its adoption – at a scale sufficient to reduce and eventually end clearing of tropical forests –are in urgent need of resolution

• Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) emerges as an important practice that promotes the adaptation to climate change based on the use of conservation and restoration of natural areas to promote the reduction of poverty and an improvement in well-being.

This practice has been growing worldwide, is present in the National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in Brazil, and requires more integration of socioeconomic and environmental policies, as well as a larger number of practical interventions and evaluation.

• New knowledge and technologies are necessary but not sufficient conditions to assure the success of an innovative model for the national agricultural-bioindustrial sector and should follow on an equal footing with the public policies of social equity and sustainability.

• The cost of inaction will be much higher in the near future. The

transition to a national economy based on the sustainable use of its biodiversity will require significant investments. This would need to occur in opposition to the maintenance of the development model currently in progress, largely focused as it is, on the production of low-added-value commodities and which has been destroying its own basis, that is, biodiversity.

www.pbmc.coppe.ufrj.br

Biodiversidade &

mudança do climaAndré FerrettiJuliana Ribeiro

GRUPO BOTICÁRIO

▪ + 11mil colaboradores diretos | 30 mil empregos indiretos

▪ 2 fábricas: São José dos Pinhais-PR e Camaçari-BA

▪ 2 centros de distribuição: Registro-SP e São Gonçalo-BA

▪ 5 unidades de negócio

1% da receita líquida anual do Grupo Boticário é destinada à

Política de Investimento Social Privado (ISP), que inclui as diversas linhas de atuação da Fundação e do Instituto.

FUNDAÇÃO GRUPO BOTICÁRIO DE PROTEÇÃO À NATUREZA

A Fundação Grupo Boticário foi criada em 1990, como uma organização sem fins lucrativos com a finalidade de conservar a

natureza brasileira.

Negócios e Biodiversidade

Negócios de impacto

Finanças sociais

Áreas protegidas

Gestão de UC

Valoração e benefícios

Ciência e Informação

Apoio a pesquisa

Políticas Públicas

Soluções Baseadas na Natureza

Segurança hídrica

Mudanças Climáticas

Instrumentos econômicos

CIÊNCIA E CONSERVAÇÃO

Somos um dos maiores financiadores de projetos de pesquisa científica da iniciativa

privada no Brasil.

28 anos de apoio a projetos de conservação

1.528 iniciativas apoiadas

501 Unidades de Conservação beneficiadas

175 espécies descritas

138 projetos apoiados sobre clima e

biodiversidade

Megaelosia

boticariana

Passiflora

boticarioana CerviGymnanthes

boticario

Brachycephalus

boticarioAphyolebias boticarioi

Listrura boticario

Ituglanis boticario

7 espécies descritas em

homenagem ao Boticário

Atlantic Rainforest

Salto Morato Nature Preserve

Cerrado

Serra do Tombador Nature Preserve

ÁREAS PROTEGIDAS

PRIVADAS:

BENEFÍCIOS PARA

TODA A SOCIEDADE

JoséPaiva

JoséPaiva

- Conservação de áreas naturais

- Infraestrutura verde ou Infraestrutura natural

- Adaptação baseada em Ecossistemas (AbE)

- Modelos de negócios e estratégias de investimento

- Pagamento por Serviços Ambientais (PSA)

- Influência em políticas públicas

- Atuação em redes

Soluções baseadas na Natureza (SbN)

• Participação em mais de 50 processos legislativos

• 28 normas legais e infra legais de SBN sancionadas com contribuições da FGB

• Elaboração de diversos estudos:

POLÍTICAS PÚBLICAS SBN -ESTADUAL e MUNICIPAL

Guia para formulação de Políticas Públicas de PSA

Lacunas e oportunidades em marcos normativos

Subsídio ao MMA no processo de elaboração do Plano Nacional de Adaptação à Mudança do Clima

INFRAESTRUTURA NATURAL PARA SEGURANÇA HÍDRICA

Lançamento no Museu do Amanhã, Rio de Janeiro, 13/12

ESTUDO CIENTOMÉTRICO

Figura 4. Tendência de produção de artigos científicos publicados em "Mudanças Climáticas e Biodiversidade no Brasil" ao longo das últimas duas décadas (1990-2010). Os dados foram obtidos junto à base de dados Web of Science® (Thomson ISI) com a combinação de palavras-chaves "climat* change" e "biodiversity" e "Brazil*" (n = 71). O número de artigos é apresentado entre parênteses. As setas indicam os picos de publicação.

PESQUISAS SOBRE CLIMA E BIODIVERSIDADE NO BRASIL ATÉ 2010

2011: EDITAL DE PESQUISA SOBRE OS IMPACTOS DA MUDANÇA DO CLIMA NA BIODIVERSIDADE NO LAGAMAR

BIO&CLIMA LAGAMAR

CATACLISMAS E RISCOS: IMPACTO E VULNERABILIDADE

Aliny Pires

Juliana Ribeiro

Rafael Loyola

ECOSSISTEMAS: IMPORTANTES MAS MUITO AFETADOS

ECOSSISTEMAS: IMPORTANTES MAS MUITO AFETADOS

Variáveis climáticas alteradas:Condições de sobrevivência e

desenvolvimento comprometidas

Ecossistemas saudáveis são essenciais para mitigação e

adaptação

MATA ATLÂNTICAPORÇÃONORDESTE

0,5ºC a4ºC10% a35%

CERRADO

Mudança do Clima no Brasil

ÁREAS URBANAS

IMPACTO NA PRODUÇÃO DE ALIMENTOS – EXPORTAÇÃO E CONSUMO

ClimatechangescenariosinBrazilfor2100Adaptedfrom: G1.com.br em6/9/2013

RECURSOS HÍDRICOS –ABASTECIMENTO E ENERGIA

AUMENTO NO RISCO DE EXTINÇÃO DE ESPÉCIES

AMAZÔNIA CAATINGA

MATA ATLÂNTICA

1ºC a 6ºC10% a45%

PANTANAL1ºC a 4,5ºC5% a 45%

PAMPA1ºC a 3ºC5% a 40%

0,5ºC a4,5ºC10% a 50%

1ºC a 5,5ºC10% a45%

PORÇÃOSUL/SUDOESTE

0,5ºC a3ºC5% a 30%

O maior desafio que nossa sociedade está enfrentando

AUMENTO REDUÇÃO TEMPERATURAS CHUVAS

VULNERABILIDADE

- IMPACTO

- EXPOSIÇÃO

- SENSIBILIDADE

- CAPACIDADE ADAPTATIVA

3 NÍVEIS DE ORGANIZAÇÃO:

- ESPÉCIES

- ECOSSISTEMAS

- BIOMAS

IPCC – AR5

BIOMAS - ECOSSISTEMAS

AMAZÔNIA .

CAATINGA

PANTANAL

PAMPA

CERRADO

MATA ATLÂNTICAMudanças no uso da terraInvasão biológicaDeclínio de diversidade, mesmo em APRedução de área

Mudanças no uso da terraAumento no desmatamentoEmpobrecimento na diversidade

Redução de áreaSeca fisiológica

Alteração na dinâmica e diversidade da floresta

Pouca representatividade em APDesertificação intensificada, devido a secas extremas

Aumento nas chuvas extremasPossibilidade de transição da floresta

para o campo

Mudança na sazonalidade e padrão das chuvas

Aumento de temperatura e na evaporação

Deslocamento de áreas de

manguezal

Escassez hídrica em grandes

centros urbanos

Ecossistemas temporários/ sensíveis a

alterações mínimas

Enchentes e deslizamentos intensificados

Risco de extinções vai de 5,2% a 2°C para 15,7% acima

de 4°C

MIGRAÇÃO – NEM SEMPRE SERÁ POSSÍVEL

ESPÉCIES

Impacto na dieta e modo de vida

Afeta a nidificaçãoe sucesso

reprodutivo

Mudança de gradientealtitudinal

Não é o mais forte que sobrevive, nem o mais

inteligente. Mas o que melhorse adapta às mudanças.

Charles Darwin