EAE 206 – Macroeconomia I 1o. semestre de 2017

Professor Fernando Rugitsky

EAE 206 – Macroeconomia I 1o. semestre de 2017

FEA/USP

Tópico 3: Inflação, desemprego e regras monetárias [4 aulas]

¡  1. Inflação e curvas de Phillips

¡  2. Regras monetárias e o modelo IS-PC-MR

¡  3. Comparação entre IS-LM e IS-PC-MR

¡  4. Friedman (1977)

PLANO

¡  A inflação e seus determinantes (Carlin/Soskice, 2006: 68-70)

§  A aparência “lógica” da atuação dos BCs (67) §  Inflação passada, expectativas adaptativas e inércia: argumento do

realismo §  Diferença entre desemprego efetivo e ERU, hiato do produto e lei de

Okun: labour hoarding e taxa de participação na força de trabalho §  Inflação de demanda e inflação de custos

1. INFLAÇÃO E CURVAS DE PHILLIPS

¡  Curvas de Phillips (Carlin/Soskice, 2006: 70-74)

§  Desemprego abaixo do equilíbrio e inflação crescente: curva de Phillips aceleracionista (inertia-augmented ou expectations-augmented)

§  Desequilíbrio no mercado de trabalho, elevação salarial e repasse para os preços: representação adequada da barganha salarial? (Shaikh, 2004)

§  Positivamente inclinada no curto prazo, vertical no longo prazo §  Altura das curvas de Phillips de curto prazo determinada pela

inflação passada, inclinação determinada pela inclinação da curva de fixação de salários, WS (se a curva de fixação de preços, PS, for horizontal)

§  Curvas de Phillips lineares?



(Carlin/Soskice, 2006: 73, gráfico 3.2)

¡  Curvas de Phill ips em perspectiva histórica (Carlin/Soskice, 2006: 74-76) §  O trabalho original de A. W. Phillips (1958): relação negativamente

inclinada entre taxa de desemprego e taxa de variação dos salários nominais, no Reino Unido entre 1861 e 1913

§  A interpretação de Carlin e Soskice (e de Friedman, 1968): inflação média igual a zero no longo prazo e componente inercial zerado

§  Exploração da curva de Phillips pela política econômica, incorporação da inflação passada nas expectativas dos agentes e o fim da curva de Phillips diagonal: a crítica de Lucas

¡  Desdobramento das controvérsias teóricas §  “Uma evidência empírica em busca de uma teoria” (Tobin, 1972: 9): de

Phillips a Samuelson e Solow (1960) §  Expectativas, aceleracionismo e a taxa natural de desemprego: Friedman

(1968) e Phelps (1968) §  Lucas (1973) e as expectativas racionais



(Phillips, 1958: 285)

19581 UNEMPLOYMENT AND MONEY WAGE RATES 285

year, an increase of 7.6 per cent. in 1900 and in 1910, and an increase of 7.0 per cent. in 1872. In no other year between 1861 and 1913 was there an increase in import prices of as much as 5 per cent. If the hypothesis stated above is correct the rise in import prices in 1862 may just have been sufficient to start up a mild wage-price spiral, but in the remainder of the period changes in import prices will have had little or no effect on the rate of change of wage rates.

cn 5 r" -2- U .I-

- - . * -G* e. f-

A scatter diagram of the rate of change of wage rates and the percentage unemployment for the years 1861-1913 is shown in Figure 1. During this time there were 64 fairly regular trade cycles with an average period of about 8 years. Scatter diagrams for the years of each trade cycle are shown in Figures 2 to 8. Each dot in the diagrams represents a year, the average rate of change of money wage rates during the year being given by the scale on the vertical axis and the average unemployment during the year by the scale on the horizontal axis. The rate of change of money wage rates was calculated from the index of hourly wage rates constructed by Phelps Brown and Sheiia Hopkins,l by expressing the first central difference of the index for each year as a percentage of the index for the same year. Thus the rate of change for 1861 is taken to be half the difference between the index for 1862 and the index for 1860 expressed as a percentage of the index

1 E. H. Phelps Brown and Sheila Hopkins, " The Course of Wage Rates in Five Countries, 180-1939,'' Oxford Economic Papers, June, 1950.


(Samuelson/Solow, 1960: 188)

188 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION

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32

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20

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-8

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 I8 20 22 24 % Unemployment Rate

FIGURE 1 PHILLIPS SCATTER DIAGRAM FOR U.S.

(The circled points are for recent years.)

simple excess demand in the other sectors. It is probably true that if we had an unemployment rate for manufacturing alone, it would be some- what higher during the postwar years than the aggregate figure shown. Even if a qualitative statement like this held true over the whole period, the increasing weight of services in the total might still create a bias. Another defect is our use of annual increments and averages, when a full-scale study would have to look carefully into the nuances of timing.

A first look at the scatter is discouraging; there are points all over the place. But perhaps one can notice some systematic effects. In the first place, the years from 1933 to 1941 appear to be sui generis: money wages rose or failed to fall in the face of massive unemployment. One may attribute this to the workings of the New Deal (the 20 per cent wage increase of 1934 must represent the NRA codes); or alternatively

This content downloaded from 143.107.252.43 on Wed, 27 Nov 2013 11:28:02 AMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions


(Samuelson/Solow, 1960: 192)

192 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION

against degree of unemployment into a related diagram showing the different levels of unemployment that would be "needed" for each degree of price level change, we come out with guesses like the following:

1. In order to have wages increase at no more than the 2'2 per cent per annum characteristic of our productivity growth, the American economy would seem on the basis of twentieth-century and postwar experience to have to undergo something like 5 to 6 per cent of the civilian labor force's being unemployed. That much unemployment would appear to be the cost of price stability in the years immediately ahead.

2. In order to achieve the nonperfectionist's goal of high enough output to give us no more than 3 per cent unemployment, the price index might have to rise by as much as 4 to 5 per cent per year. That much price rise would seem to be the necessary cost of high employment and production in the years immediately ahead.

All this is shown in our price-level modification of the Phillips curve, Figure 2. The point A, corresponding to price stability, is seen to in- volve about 512 per cent unemployment; whereas the point B, corre-

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C 6

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C \

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1 2 3 4 S \6 7 8 9 %

~ I UUnemployment Rate FIGURE 2

MODIFIED PHILLIPS CURVE FOR U.S. This shows the menu of choice between different degrees of unemployment and price stability,

as roughly estimated from last twenty-five years of American data.

This content downloaded from 143.107.252.43 on Wed, 27 Nov 2013 11:28:02 AMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions


(Friedman, 1977: 457)

INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT 457

Rate of inflation

I(V) P dt>

B F ~~~~G B - S--~~~~~(I Vt) = B A _ _ d_ _

UL UN FIG. 2. Expectations-adjusted Phillips curve

matters to him is the wage in terms of the price of his product, and he perceives that price as higher than before. A higher nominal wage can therefore mean a lower real wage as perceived by him.

To workers, the situation is different: what matters to them is the purchasing power of wages not over the particular good they produce but over all goods in general. Both they and their employers are likely to adjust more slowly their perception of prices in general because it is more costly to acquire information about that than their perception of the price of the particular good they produce. As a result, a rise in nominal wages may be perceived by workers as a rise in real wages and hence call forth an increased supply at the same time that it is perceived by employers as a fall in real wages and hence calls forth an increased offer of jobs. Expressed in terms of the average of perceived future prices, real wages are lower; in terms of the perceived future average price, real wages are higher.

But this situation is temporary: let the higher rate of growth of aggregate nominal demand and of prices continue, and perceptions will adjust to reality. When they do, the initial effect will disappear and then even be reversed for a time as workers and employers find themselves locked into inappropriate contracts. Ultimately, employment will be back at the level that prevailed before the assumed unanticipated acceleration in aggregate nominal demand.

This alternative hypothesis is depicted in figure 2. Each negatively sloping curve is a Phillips curve like that in figure 1 except that it is for a particular anticipated or perceived rate of inflation, defined as the perceived average rate of price change, not the average of perceived rates of individual price change (the order of the curves would be reversed for the second concept). Start from point E and let the rate of inflation for whatever reason move from A to B and stay there. Unemployment would initially decline to UL at point F, moving along the curve defined for an anticipated rate of inflation [(1/P)(dP/dt)]* of A. As anticipations

9.75-

8.75-

7.75- z/

6.75 5 3.0 6

42.75- 2.0 W

YEAR FIG. 3.-Rates of inflation and unemployment, 1956-75, by quinquennia; unweighted

average for seven countries.

Rate of Rate of Inflation Unemployment

15 -France -6.0

5 \- -Gu ...-.- 2.0

O \,1 . ~~~~~~~~~0 Rate of Rate of Inflation Unemployment

15 -6.0 5 Swdn -6.0

0Germany a 4.0 1 4.0

5 L<XE 2.05 2.0

20 Japan A 8.0 20 United States 8. -8t0

15 2.an0 1 5 2

10 4.0 0

1860 1965 1970 1975 1960 1965 1970 1975

FIG. 4.-Inflation and unemployment in seven countries, annually, 1956-75. Solid line = rate of inflation; dashed line = rate of unemployment.

462

(Friedman, 1977: 462)

¡  O custo da desinflação e as preferências dos bancos centrais (Carlin/Soskice, 2006: 76-78) §  Aversão dos bancos centrais a desvios da inflação em relação à meta

e do desemprego em relação a ERU (desvios para ambos os lados!) §  Preferência, curvas de indiferença e trajetória de desinflação §  Derivação das curvas de indiferença do banco central adiante

(capítulo 5)

¡  Alternativa novo-clássica (Carlin/Soskice, 2006: 79-81) §  Ausência de inércia inflacionária (flexibilidade dos preços e

expectativas racionais) e credibilidade da autoridade monetária: desinflação sem custos

§  Inflação não antecipada, indistinção entre inflação geral ou para um produto específico, aumento do produto

§  Inversão de causalidade: do produto para a inflação ou da inflação para o produto (a equação de oferta surpresa de Lucas)






¡  O modelo de 3 equações, IS-PC-MR (Carlin/Soskice, 2006: 82-84) §  Versão mais simples da IS: relação entre o produto de equilíbrio e a

taxa de juros (real) estabilizadora e foco no hiato do produto §  Curva de Phillips com inércia §  Regra monetária e aversão do banco central à inflação: inclinação

determinanda pelas preferências do banco central (ou da sociedade?)

¡  Reação da autoridade a diversos choques (Carlin/Soskice, 2006: 84-87) §  Choque inflacionário §  Choques de demanda, temporário e permanente §  Juros nominal, juros real e política monetária ativa

2. REGRAS MONETÁRIAS E O MODELO IS-PC-MR







¡  Razão de sacrifício e estratégias de desinflação (Carlin/Soskice, 2006: 88-90) §  Razão de sacrifício: desemprego acumulado necessário para atingir

uma dada redução da inflação §  Gradualismo versus cold turkey (terapia de choque) §  Curvas de Phillips lineares e independência da razão de sacrifício em

relação à estratégia de desinflação §  Curvas de Phillips convexas e distinção entre as razões de sacrifício

associadas a diferentes estratégias de desinflação




¡  Relação entre a MR e a LM (Carlin/Soskice, 2006: 92-93) §  Distinção entre regra de oferta monetária e condição LM (equilíbrio

no mercado monetário) §  Curva LM é presente como pano de fundo mesmo quando a política

monetária é baseada na utilização da taxa de juros

¡  Dinâmica inflacionária nos dois modelos (Carlin/Soskice, 2006: 93-94) §  Política monetária passiva ou ativa §  Equilíbrio de médio prazo no modelo IS-LM: taxa de crescimento da

oferta monetária é idêntica à meta de inflação §  Trajetória de ajuste mais lenta no modelo IS-LM

3. COMPARAÇÃO ENTRE IS-LM E IS-PC-MR

3. COMPARAÇÃO ENTRE IS-LM E IS-PC-MR


¡  O lugar do artigo de Friedman de 1977

¡  Debate sobre a curva de Phill ips como ilustração e a metodologia de Friedman (1977: 452-454) §  Ciências naturais, ciências socias e a questão do monismo metodológico

[“Do not the social sciences, in which scholars are analyzing the behavior of themselves and their fellowmen, who are in turn observing and reacting to what the scholars say, require fundamentally different m e t h o d s o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n t h a n t h e p h y s i c a l a n d b i o l o g i c a l sciences?” (451-452)]

§  Diferença de valores, divergências teóricas e o papel da “economia positiva”

§  Curva de Phillips: “an admirable illustration because it has been a controversial political issue throughout the period, yet the drastic change that has occurred in accepted professional views was produced primarily by the scientific response to experience that contradicted a tentatively accepted hypothesis – precisely the classical process for the revision of a scientific hypothesis” (453)

4. FRIEDMAN (1977)

¡  O primeiro estágio: curva de Phillips negativamente inclinada (454-456) §  Problema empírico: “the inflation rate that appeared to be consistent

with a specified level of unemployment did not remain fixed: in the circumstances of the post-World War II period, when governments everywhere were seeking to promote ‘full employment,’ it tended in any one country to rise over time and to vary sharply among countries. Looked at the other way, rates of inflation that had earlier been associated with low levels of unemployment were experienced along with high levels of unemployment. The phenomenon of simultaneous high inflation and high unemployment increasingly forced itself on public and professional notice, receiving the unlovely label of ‘stagflation.’”(455)

§  Problema teórico: salários reais versus salários nominais

4. FRIEDMAN (1977)

¡  O segundo estágio: a hipótese da taxa natural de desemprego (modelo) [456-459] §  Pressupostos: mudanças não-antecipadas da demanda nominal,

compromissos de longo-prazo (inércia) e distinção entre efeitos de curto e de longo prazo [entre Lucas e os novo-keynesianos?]

§  Empregador: aumento não-antecipado dos preços, aumento da produção e contratação de mais pessoas (pagando um salário nominal maior que ele acredita ser um salário real menor)

§  Trabalhadores: aumento do salário nominal percebido como aumento do salário real, aumento da oferta de trabalho

§  “Expressed in terms of the average of perceived future prices, real wages are lower; in terms of the perceived future average price, real wages are higher.” (457)

§  Ajuste das percepções com o passar do tempo

4. FRIEDMAN (1977)

¡  O segundo estágio: a hipótese da taxa natural de desemprego

(interpretação) [456-459] §  Inspiração wickselliana: “The ‘natural rate of unemployment,’ a term I

introduced to parallel Knut Wicksell’s ‘natural rate of interest,’ is not a numerical constant but depends on ‘real’ as opposed to monetary factors – the effectiveness of the labor market, the extent of competition or monopoly, the barriers or encouragements to working in various occupations, and so on.” (458)

§  Aumento da taxa natural nos EUA: ingresso de mulheres e adolescentes no mercado de trabalho, por um lado, seguro-desemprego tornou-se mais generoso em valor e duração

§  Desemprego é ineficiente? §  Aceno às expectativas racionais

4. FRIEDMAN (1977)

¡  O terceiro estágio: curva de Phillips positivamente inclinada? (459-468) §  Pressupostos para a curva de Phillips vertical de longo prazo:

inflação não é mais volátil em um nível elevado do que em um nível baixo, inflação é aberta e todos os preços podem se ajustar (não implica em mudança de preços relativos), não há obstáculos à indexação dos contratos

§ Mas inflação alta tende a ser muito instável, o que por sua vez pode ter duas consequências: reduz a duração ótima de compromissos não-indexados, torna o sistema de preços um mecanismo menos eficiente de coordenar a atividade econômica (Hayek)

§  E a inflação geralmente é não aberta, devido aos preços administrados

§  Esses elementos reduzem a eficiência da economia, mas tem impactos ambíguos na taxa de desemprego

4. FRIEDMAN (1977)

¡  A retórica de Friedman e seus limites: §  “Government policy about inflation and unemployment has been at the

center of political controversy. Ideological war has raged over these matters. Yet the drastic change that has occurred in economic theory has not been a result of ideological warfare. It has not resulted from divergent political beliefs or aims. It has responded almost entirely to the force of events: brute experience proved far more potent than the strongest of political or ideological preferences.” (470)

§  Whig history? (Forder, 2010) [“While he is remembered for dismissing the possibility of a long-run trade-off, Friedman’s greater achievement was to put the short-run trade-off at the center of almost everyone’s macroeconomic analysis. The historically attested theoretical alternative to the vertical Phillips curve is not a trade-off in the long run, but a denial of it in the short run. On this view the problem of unemployment was, over a very wide range, simply a different problem from that of inflation. It is as much the triumph of Friedman’s history as of his theory that it has become almost impossible to articulate the view that macroeconomic policy should be concerned with unemployment without seeming merely to plan a day-trip up the Phillips curve. But this is not the only view one might take.” (344)]

4. FRIEDMAN (1977)

CARLIN, Wendy, SOSKICE, David (2006). Macroeconomics: imperfections, institutions and policies. Oxford: Oxford University Press. FORDER, James (2010). “Friedman’s Nobel lecture and the Phillips curve myth”, Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Vol. 32 (3), pp. 329-348. FRIEDMAN, Milton (1968). “The role of monetary policy”, American Economic Review, Vol. 58 (1), pp. 1-17. FRIEDMAN, Milton (1977). “Nobel lecture: inflation and unemployment”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85 (3), pp. 451-472. LUCAS Jr., Robert (1973). “International evidence on output-inflation tradeoffs”, American Economic Review, Vol. 63 (3), pp. 326-334. PHELPS, Edmund (1968). “Wage dynamics and labor-market equilibrium”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 76 (4), pp. 678-711. PHILLIPS, A. W. (1958). “The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957”, Economica, Vol. 25 (100), pp. 283-299. SAMUELSON, Paul, SOLOW, Robert (1960). “Analytical aspects of anti-inflation policy”, American Economic Review, Vol. 50 (2), pp. 177-194. SHAIKH, Anwar (2004). “Labor market dynamics with rival macroeconomic frameworks”, in: ARGYROUS, George, FORSTATER, Matthew, MONGIOVI, Gary (orgs). Growth, Distribution and Effective Demand: Alternatives to Economic Orthodoxy. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, pp. 127–143. TOBIN, James (1972). “Inflation and unemployment”, American Economic Review, Vol. 62 (1/2), pp. 1-18.

REFERÊNCIAS

Documents

EAE 206 – Macroeconomia I 1o. semestre de 2017