Manuela Vieira Pak (manuelka79@hotmail.com)

Thierry BONAUDO (b_thierry@yahoo.com)

Pierre BOMMEL (bommel@cirad.fr)

Jonas Bastos DA VEIGA (Embrapa-CPATU)

Jean-François TOURRAND (tourrand@aol.com)

MODELAGEM DAS DINÂMICAS SÓCIOAMBIENTAIS

DE UMA FRENTE PIONEIRA : URUARÁ, PA

Modelling the Pioneers Fronts of Modelling the Pioneers Fronts of the Transamazon Highway Regionthe Transamazon Highway Region

UnBUnB

BRÉSIL

COMMUNE D’URUARÀ

Transamazonienne

Vicinales

Brasilia

PARÁ

TransamazonienneRamifications principales

Belém

PARÁ

Transamazonian highwayMain roads

Study siteStudy site

Contexto Amazônico : Contexto Amazônico : Riquezas, Interesses e ConflitosRiquezas, Interesses e Conflitos

Um mosaico de situações diversasfísicas e humanas

Evolução das políticas públicas60 / 85 Colonização, ocupação e desenvolvimento85 / 00 Suspensão programas & abertura ambiental00 / … Política de planejamento vs política proteção

Mudanças rápidas (em 30 anos)5-7 M 22 M habitantes5-10 M 60 M bovinos? % 15 % de desmatamento

Desafios científicos imensosCiclo H2O, CO2, fertilidade do solo, biodiversidade

Why the pioneer front progresses ?Why the pioneer front progresses ?

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

1994 2000 2002 2003

Production de bois en m3 (bille debois)

Produção madeira (m3)

de madeira

Fonte : Salgado, Toni, Bonaudo

1000

1200

km2

SawmillsSawmillsRanchingRanching

0

200

400

600

800

1986 1991 1999

PastureFallowAnnual crop

Área de Estudo : Área de Estudo : Frente Pioneira Frente Pioneira de Uruaráde Uruará

Uma frente pioneira : o lugar onde o ecossistema natural é transformado em espaço rural

Por que as frentes pioneiras ?Elas apresentam todas as características já mencionadas

Dinâmica espaçais, demográficas, econômicas, sociais e ecológicas.

Lugar onde emergem novas sociedades e novas regiões

One more model… what for ?One more model… what for ?

►► To formalize and synthesize the knowledge To formalize and synthesize the knowledge acquired during the last 10 years (remote sensing, acquired during the last 10 years (remote sensing, monographs,…)monographs,…)

►► To focus on stakeholders, their needs (money and To focus on stakeholders, their needs (money and family family labourlabour), their rules and their dynamics ), their rules and their dynamics

►► To elaborate prospective scenarios on the pioneer To elaborate prospective scenarios on the pioneer front evolution (according to the actors’ needs)front evolution (according to the actors’ needs)

►► To discuss possible public policiesTo discuss possible public policies

The underlying question is: How to control the The underlying question is: How to control the extension of the pioneers fronts?extension of the pioneers fronts?

The modeler’s role The modeler’s role

KISSKISS

&&KIDSKIDS

How to simplify the knowledgeHow to simplify the knowledgeof the experts and of the stakeholders ?of the experts and of the stakeholders ?

Farm family systemFarm family system

The focal pointThe focal point

Adapted from: Mercedes Figari

0 1010 km0 1010 km0 1010 km0 1010 km

Natural dynamicsEconomic andsocial dynamics

Ownership unit

Fazendas

Project of protected area

Native Reserve

Coupling dynamicsCoupling dynamics

Simplify the model componentsSimplify the model components

Elementaryspatial units

SoilsMista

RoxaAmarela

Vegetation

Land ownership strips

FallowCocoaForest

Annual CropPasture

Located Elements: farmers, cattle, valuable timber

The spatial structureThe spatial structure

Traversão

Hierarchy of spatial entitiesHierarchy of spatial entities

Plot

-area = 5 ha

+newCover( c : Cover )+value() : float...

Traversão

-length = {1; 100 km}

-owner

Farm

+deforestationRate()+value()

Lot

decreaseFactorPerKM= 0,01

-minValue = 1200

+distanceRoad()+value()

1

*

0..1 1..*

1 20

Farmcomposed

of 3 lots

Plot

Lot

Tran

sam

azon

hig

hway

Traversão

Traversão

Lot

« Terra Amarela »Plot

« Terra Amarela »

SoilSoil

--fertilityYield = 0,75

fertilityRate: float1

1--

TerraRoxa

-valeur = 480-CoefFertilit é = 1

TerraAmarela

-valeur = 120-CoefFertilit é = 0,5

1

Soil- value: int-

TerraRoxa

-value = 480-fertilityYield = 1

TerraAmarela

-value = 120-fertilityYield = 0,5

is on >Parcelle

-AireHa: int = 5

+valeur()

Plot

-areaHa: int = 5

+value()

TerraMista

-value = 240

TerraMista

-

Amarela: 50%

Mista: 40%

Roxa: 10%

« Terra RoPlot

Terra Mistaxa »« Terra Roxa »

&

VegetalCover

-suppressCost

-implantationCost

-suppressLabour

-implantationLabour

-upkeepCost

-upkeepLabour

-age : int

+evolve()+value()

EvolvingCover

- NextStage: VegetalCover

-neglectedDuration-AgeTransition : int

+change()+evolve()

< is covered by

-cover

1 1

-plot

Crop

-decreasedYieldPerNeglected=0,15-ProductionPerHa

-ageProduction

-price/Kg

+production()

Plot -surface: 5 ha

+cover():Cover+value() : float+soil() : Soil

Forest suppressLabour:12days/ha/man

suppressCost= 20$/ha

+evolve()

1

0..1

- NextStageFallow -AgeTransition = 30

Cattle -cowNb/ha = 1

+evolve()+sell()

ValuableTrees

-treeValue = 100-nbPerHa = 0.5

+value()

...

AnnualCrop Pasture

+evolve()+value()

TreeCrop

+evolve()+value()

-NextStage

0..11

Land Land CoverCoverPatternPattern

…. ….….

Forest

Tree Crop

Annual Crop

Pasture

Fallow

Valuable Tree

Cattle

PlotFarm made

of 3 lots

Lot

Tran

sam

azon

ienn

e

Vicinale

A land cover viewA land cover view

TheThe agent: a agent: a familyfamily + a + a strategystrategy

Family

-membreInactifs : int

-consoIndividual = 300-seuilExclusion = -1500-membres : int = {2;8}

-sickProba = 0,03

-labourPrice = 600

-incomes : float

+applyStrategy()+consum()

+drySaisonStep()

+changeStrategy()

+ weetSaisonStep()

+buyLot()+invadeLot()

+sellLabour()

+sellLot()

+balance()

Strategy

Farmer

+suppress(Cover)

+implant(Cover)+upkeep(Cover)

+employLabour()

+slashBurn()

+harvest()

Landless

+ drySeasonStep()+ wetSeasonStep()+ balance()

TreeCropFarmer CattleBreeder

Farm

+deforestRate()+value()

perform1 1

manage1-property

1

+ drySeasonStep()+ wetSeasonStep()+ balance()

+ drySeasonStep()+ weetSeasonStep()+ balance()

Sequence diagram: Main step (annual)Sequence diagram: Main step (annual)

Results: Example of simulationResults: Example of simulation

Tree Crop Farmer and its lots

Cattle Breeder and it lot

Results: consistencyResults: consistency

►►The simulated land uses patterns are The simulated land uses patterns are consistent with the observed onesconsistent with the observed ones

►►Pastures increase although they are less Pastures increase although they are less profitable than tree crop culture.profitable than tree crop culture.

►►From the only 3 modelled actorFrom the only 3 modelled actor’’s strategies, s strategies, the outputs of the simulation exhibit the 7 the outputs of the simulation exhibit the 7 known types of farmers : Landless, Survival, known types of farmers : Landless, Survival, Accumulation, Tree crop farmers, Cattle Accumulation, Tree crop farmers, Cattle breeder and Diversified.breeder and Diversified.

Results: theoretical insightsResults: theoretical insights

00,1

0,20,30,4

0,50,60,70,8

0,91

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Preço do cacau incomes variable price Incomes: fixed price (0,5)

0102030405060708090

100

20 21 22 23 24 25

Tamanho floresta (0,5) Tamanho floresta

010

20304050

6070

8090

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25Tamanho cacau Tamanho cacau (0,5)

►► Stabilizing the cocoa price to 1 $/kg limits the pasture Stabilizing the cocoa price to 1 $/kg limits the pasture expansion and therefore moderates the deforestation: expansion and therefore moderates the deforestation: ““winwin--winwin”” situationsituation

Contribution to theoretical models of deforestation (Hamburger Contribution to theoretical models of deforestation (Hamburger connection, Free access, connection, Free access, Relative priceRelative price) )

Perspectives and conclusionPerspectives and conclusion

►► An iterative loop between An iterative loop between Synthesis of knowledge of experts and of actorsSynthesis of knowledge of experts and of actorsmodels development by experts models development by experts and their modification and validation by stakeholders and their modification and validation by stakeholders (ongoing). (ongoing).

►► A RPG to pay attention to the multitude of points A RPG to pay attention to the multitude of points of view among the various actorsof view among the various actors

►► Do not clear the forest but clear the modelDo not clear the forest but clear the modelSimple and descriptive Simple and descriptive Controversial and refutableControversial and refutable