NCM Apresentação fim2 ENG3.ppt [Modo de Compatibilidade]§ão_fim2_ENG3.pdf · 7/10/2010 11 The Key Role of the New Middle Class. PoliticsThe 94.9 million Brazilians who are in

7/10/2010

1

Average per capita income evolution – R$ at 2009

0 7,65

630,25

,5 7,95

506,70

514,75

518,96

527,24

483,99

506,53

507,72

477,89

492,45

524,75 572,69

585,50

61 6

Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE

385,

40

1992

1993

1994*

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000*

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

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Increase of Average househol Per Capita Income(all sources) – 2001 to 2009

Aumento da renda familiar per capita acumulada - 2001-2009Menos de 10%de 10% a 20%de 20% a 30%de 20% a 30%de 30% a 40%Mais de 40%


Average Income PNAD X GDP

• The magnitude of the resumption of growth in the 2003‐08 period depends on the database used: GDP2003 08 period depends on the database used: GDP grows 3.78% in per capita per year, slower than the National Survey by Household Sampling (PNAD), 5.26 % per year, also discounting population growth and inflation. According to PNAD 2009 income

i th GDP 1 5% fgrows more once gain than GDP: ‐1.5% of per capita GDP against a positive growth of 2.04% in PNAD.

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Sen´s 1976 Measure= Average * (1 – Gini)Welfare evolution – R$

54

278,81

286,92

260,00

280,00

300,00

0,68

0,41

203,00

204,93

207,36

210,84

196,67

204,79

208,87

199,29

211,21

226,57 250,68

260, 5 2

140 00

160,00

180,00

200,00

220,00

240,00


160

160

100,00

120,00

140,00

1992

1993

1994*

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000*

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Gini’s index Evolution

8

0,61

0,62

0,5832

0,6068

0,5994

0,6019

0,6004

0,6001

0,5937

0,5957

0,5886

0,5830

0,5711

0,5682

0,5623

0,5550

486

480,54

0,55

0,56

0,57

0,58

0,59

0,60


0

0,54

0,544

0,51

0,52

0,53

1992

1993

1994*

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000*

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

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Inequality – Gini’s Index

Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD and Census / IBGE

Accumulated Variation of Average Income by Income Tenths - Brazil (2009/2001)


Richer

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Variation of the Annual Per Capita of Average Income per Income Tenths - Brazil (2009/2008)


Richer

Variation of the Annual Per Capita of Average Income per Income Tenths - Brazil(2009/2003)


Richer

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Variation of the Annual Per Capita of Average Income per Income Tenths(2009/2001)


Richer

Total Income Participation in 2009 - Brazil

41,8% 42,8%

15,4%

50‐ 40 10+

Source: CPS / FGV based on microdata from PNAD / IBGE

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Inferior Superior

Definition of Economic Classes

Total Household Income from All SourcesEarnings Brackets

pClass E 0 705Class D 705 1126Class C 1126 4854Class B 4854 6329Class A 6329Class A 6329

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Economic classes evolution

59 661,165

Class AB/C Class D/E

37,9

59,662,1

49.22

38,935

40

45

50

55

60

30

Fonte: CPS/FGV a partir dos microdados da PNAD/IBGE


70

Class AB Class C Class D/E

5,410.4 10,6

32,5

49.2 50,562,1

40.4 38,94

10

20

30

40

50

60


,

0

10

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9

2009-2003 2008-2009


Class E -45.50% -4.32%Class D -11.63% -3.00%Class C 34.32% 2.49%Class B 38.51% 3.49%Class A 40.99% 0.18%


Population Difference by Economic Classes

2009-2003 2008-2009Class E -20,481,069 -1,022,145Class D -2,431,443 -946,083Class C 29,063,545 3,172,653Class B 3,391,694 443,181Class A 3,253,636 106,487


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The Population Pyramid divided in Economic Classes

13.322.409 19.418.071 19.967.739

96.204.32875.260.044 73.291.816

65.871.283 91.762.175 94.934.828


2003 2008 2009

Class DE Class C Class AB

Population by Economic Classes

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Total 175,398,020 177,758,060 180,001,710 182,218,501 184,384,292 186,440,290 188,194,383Class E 49,319,851 45,147,533 41,047,646 35,196,724 33,659,359 29,860,927 28,838,782Class D 46,884,477 48,286,025 48,713,422 48,006,542 46,298,711 45,399,117 44,453,034Class C 65,871,283 70,620,183 75,266,800 81,889,806 86,476,548 91,762,175 94,934,828Class B 6,977,329 7,100,301 7,583,287 8,549,859 9,271,379 9,925,842 10,369,023Class A 6,345,080 6,604,018 7,390,555 8,575,570 8,678,295 9,492,229 9,598,716


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The Key Role of the New Middle Class

. Politics The 94.9 million Brazilians who are in the new middle class representare in the new middle class represent 50,5% of the population. This means that the new Brazilian middle class not only includes the median voter taken

h h d d h das the one who decides the second round of an election, but that this class alone could decide an election campaign.

• Economics ‐ The new middle class is also economically dominating, concentrating

The Key Role of the New Middle Class

y g, gmore 46.24% of the purchasing power of Brazilians in 2009 (it was 45.66% in 2008) surpassing those classes AB with 44.12% of total purchasing power The otherof total purchasing power. The other classes D and E now has 9.65% of the purchasing power (falling from 19.79% just before the release of the Real Plan.

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Class A Evolution


Class B Evolution


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Class C Evolution


Class D Evolution


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Class E Evolution


Inferior SuperiorClass E2 0 420

Economic Classes More Detailled Definition

Total Household Income from All SourcesIncome Brackets limits

Class E1 420 705Class D2 541 802Class D1 802 1126Class C2 1126 1888Class C1 1888 4854Class B2 4854 4902Class B1 4902 6329Class A2 6329 9366Class A1 9366 0

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,53%

28,13%

Economic Classes Evolution –More Detailed Classification

2003

2008

14,31%

13,81%

13,69%

13,04%

18,68%

18,88%

7,23%

8,78% 11,28%

13,07%

22,69% 26,

% % % %

7,28%

8,05% 10,81%

12,81%

22,31%

2

% % % %

2009


2,01%

1,97%

1,83%

1,78%

2,86%

2,46%

2,55%

2,54%

2,94%

2,57%

2,50%

2,60%

E2 E1 D2 D1 C2 C1 B2 B1 A2 A1

2% 1,8%

32,9%

Income Mass by Economic ClassesMore Detailed Classification2003

2008

% 6%

14,3%

29,2

8% ,1% 9,1%

18,6%

%

13,8%

3

4% 9% 9,7%

21,3%

%

13,4%

4%

,0% 9,3%

21,4%

2009

1,4%

3,1%

4,8%

6,6

5,8 7,

0,5%

1,5%

3,1% 5,1%

6,4 6,

0,4%

1,4%

2,9% 4,9%

6,4 7,

E2 E1 D2 D1 C2 C1 B2 B1 A2 A1


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Annual Rate of Poverty Reduction (Class E)2003/2009

Taxa Anual de Redução da Pobreza 2003-2009Até 5%de 5% a 7,5%de 7,5% a 10%de 10% a 12,5%de 12,5% a 15%Mais de 15%

1993/1995

Taxa Anual Até 5%de 5% a 7,5%de 7,5% a 10%de 10% a 12,5%de 12,5% a 15%Mais de 15%


Annual rate of growth in class ABC2003/2009

1993/1995Taxa Anual de Crescimento das Classes ABC - 2003-2009Até 5%de 5% a 7,5%de 7,5% a 10%de 10% a 12,5%de 12,5% a 15%Mais de 15%


Taxa AnualAté 5%de 5% a 7,5%de 7,5% a 10%de 10% a 12,5%de 12,5% a 15%Mais de 15%

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http://www3.fgv.br/ibrecps/RET4/2009_temporal/index2.htm

% Poverty – In Minimun Wages Lines

50 42

2003

2008

23,08

23,96

52,96

2,65

19,85

67, 5

1,87

18,71

69,4

2009


12

11

less than 1/4 1/4 to 1/2 more than de 1/2

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Classic Indicators of Poverty

% Poverty – In Minimun Wages Lines

4

2003

2008

47,0

32,50

30,58

2008

2009


Up to 1/2

Consumers and Producers

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Simulador de Renda

http://www.fgv.br/ibrecps/cpc/SIM_PNAD_0208_RENDATOT/renda.htm

Is it Sustainable?

• The synthetic indicator of potential consumption power increased by 22 6%consumption power increased by 22.6% between 2003 and 2008, while the index of the generation of income raised 31.2%. Difference of 38% in favor of the

d ti idproduction side.

• During the crisis these indexes raised 2.49% and 3.05% respectively.

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Net Generation of Formal Employment - BRAZIL Yearly (2000 to 2010 July*)

1.954.531

0452.204

1.617.392

8.686

3.981

.523.276

995.110

1.41

1.228

1.253

1.

645.433

762.415

591.079

657.596

* up to august only

Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from CAGED / M T E.

2010*2009200820072006200520042003200220012000


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OccupationOccupation

OccupiedOccupied ‐‐ 1992 to 20091992 to 200910 10 yearsyears oror more*more*


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OccupiedOccupied ‐‐ 2009200910 10 yearsyears oror more*more*

67,33%

61,29%

49,24%

41 84%


class ABclass C

class Dclass E

41,84%

Profile of Economic Classes ‐ 2009

Position on the Occupation

Category CLASS AB CLASS C CLASS D CLASS E

Unemployed 2.14% 3.86% 7.20% 10.11%

Inactive 30.53% 34.84% 43.56% 48.05%

Agricultural


employee 0.29% 2.33% 4.49% 4.68%

Domestic employee 0.57% 4.53% 5.95% 4.27%

Formal

Employee 21.11% 22.96% 11.77% 4.31%

Informal

Employee 4.85% 6.75% 6.68% 4.47%

Self‐employed 11.89% 11.85% 11.00% 11.05%

Employer 9.81% 2.14% 0.55% 0.55%

Public

Employee 16.84% 7.09% 3.19% 1.61%

Unpaid 1.95% 3.65% 5.62% 10.90%Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE

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2003 2008 2009

PensionPension ContributionContribution PrivatePrivate andand//oror PublicPublic (Social (Social SecuritySecurity))

2003 2008 2009Contributes to Social SecurityContributes Soc. Sec. Pub. & Priv 2.11 2.02 2.17Contributes Soc. Sec. Public 35.62 38.31 38.65Contributes Soc. Sec. Priv 0.75 0.89 0.96Unemployed 3.98 2.67 3.25Inactive 18.90 22.23 22.16


Computer with internet at Home1992 to 2009

Digital Digital AssetsAssets


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Digital Digital AssetsAssets

Cellular Phone (at lest one at Home)1992 to 2009


2003 2008 2009

Digital Digital AssetsAssets AtAt HomeHome

COMPUTERHave computer with Internet 11.10 24.78 28.46Have computer 3.93 7.80 7.92Doesn’t have computer 84.85 67.20 63.45Unknown 0.13 0.22 0.16TELEPHONEHave fixed and Cellphone 27.50 39.22 38.68Have fixed 22 11 4 86 4 19Have fixed 22.11 4.86 4.19Have Cellphone 11.07 39.36 42.87Doesn’t have fixed and Cellphone 39.20 16.35 14.10


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Digital Digital AssetsAssets atat HomeHome

Computer with internet2009

75,82%

33 90%

Cellular Phone2009class AB class C class D class E

33,90%

9,69%6,73%

95,92%

86,23%77,23%


class AB class C class D class E

62,81%

Evolution (years) Average Years of Schooling Brazil - 1992-2008Age 25 years or more

EducationEducation


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2003 2008 2009

EDUCATION OF THE HEAD

Without education or less than 1 year 18.41 15.09 14.05

1 to 3 15 77 12 99 12 89

Evolution (%) of the population by Educational Level

EducationEducation

1 to 3 15.77 12.99 12.89

4 to 7 29.90 26.64 26.77

8 to 11 26.82 33.72 33.59

12 or more 8.64 11.21 11.72

EDUCATION OF THE SPOUSE

Without education or less than 1 year 10 80 8 72 8 08Without education or less than 1 year 10.80 8.72 8.08

1 to 3 11.92 8.96 8.59

4 to 7 24.16 20.67 20.58

8 to 11 23.08 27.81 27.65

12 or more 6.53 8.66 9.11Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE

EducationEducation

Completed Years of Schooling (pop. with 25 years or more)2009

4

6

8

10

1212,00

7,18

5,464,98

Attends or attended Schools2009

47,67%

0

2

4



10,47%

2,07% 2,44%


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PublicPublic ServicesServices

SewageSewage –– 1992 to 20091992 to 2009



Garbage collected directly – 1992 to 2009


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SewageSewage ––20092009

72,02%

57,78%

40,45%


,

30,65%

Garbage collected directly –2009

91,85%87,46%


76,97%

64,20%


ConsumerConsumer GoodsGoods

Washing machine – 1992 to 2009

85,72%

Washing machine ‐ 2009



53,22%

24,96%

16,48%

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Refrigerator– 1992 to 2009

Refrigerator ‐ 2009

99,69%97,49%

92,50%



79,82%


Television – 1992 to 2009

Television – 2009

99,54%97,62%

96,00%

91,16%



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More than 3 bathrooms – 1992 to 2009

More than 3 bathrooms –2009

13,24%



1,07%0,23% 0,35%

Financed homeowners – 1992 to 2009

Financed homeowners – 2009

7,74%

4 97%



4,97%

2,98%

1,69%

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2003 2008 2009

Own ‐ already paid 70.62 71.27 70.58

Evolution (%) Population by Housing Condition

Own ‐ still paying 4.80 4.35 4.29

Rent below the median 8.70 7.17 6.80

Rent above the median 4.73 8.19 8.98

Given 10 38 8 23 8 61Given 10.38 8.23 8.61

Other condition 0.65 0.57 0.58


ORDER OF ENTRY IN THE MODEL1 Number of per capita2 Telephone3 Spouses education4 Type of family5 chefe contribui para previdência head contributes to social security6 Washing machine7 # of bedrooms per capita8 Head’s education9 position on the head’s job10 school attendance of child(7 to 14 years)11 school attendance of child (0 a 6 anos)12 position on the head’s job13 Computer14 Refrigerator15 school attendance of child (15 a 17 anos)16 type of home (own, lease and financing)17 Syndicalized Head18 Freezer19 # of bedrooms per capitap p20 sewage21 Radio22 # of bathrooms23 number of residents24 Television25 Garbage colected26 age that the head started to work27 number of rooms28 share of labor income29 # of bedrooms Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PNAD/IBGE

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Pre‐Crisis (Dec 2002 a 2009 x Crisis(Dec 2008 a 2009)

Class ABC Class AB Class C Class D Class E Income Gini THEIL

3,8%

4,2%

3,7%

‐2,4%

8,2%

3,8%

‐1,6%

‐4,2%

0,1% 2,0%

‐0,4%

1,4%

‐1,5%

‐0,4%

0,0%

‐1,8%

Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata from PME/IBGE

‐

dec02 to dec08 dec08 to dec09

Variation in Economic Classes in Post-Crisis

7%

%

Class ABC Class AB Class C Class D Class E

0,8%

‐0,6%

1,2%

‐2,5%

‐1,2%

‐2,3%

‐2,7%

‐2,2%

3,0%

6,

1,0%

5,3%

‐0,2%

0,6%

‐4,1%

0,8%

0,7%

0,8%

‐2,5% ‐1,1%


set08 to dec08 dec08 to jan09 jan09 to set09 out09 to dec09

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%

13,0%Class ABC Class AB Class C Class D Class E

3,8%

4,2%

3,7%

‐2,4%

%

0,1% 2,0%

‐0,4%

1,4%

‐1,5%

3,9%

7,8

2,9%

7%

%

5,5%

3,4%


‐8,2‐7, 7

‐8,6%

‐12,4%

‐11,3%

dec02 to dec08 dec08 to dec09 janjun09 to janjun10 jul09 to jul10

% 2% 9,2%

10,3%

9,7%

%

13,0%Class ABC Class AB Class C Class D Class E

3,8%

4,2%

3,7%

‐2,4%

‐8,2%

0,1% 2,0%

‐0,4%

1,4%

‐1,5%

3,2% 5,5%

2,5%

‐4,6%

‐7,9%

3,4%

7,2

2,4%

‐4,9%

‐8,7%

3,7%

5,3%

3,3%

‐8,4%

‐7,2%

4,8%

9

3,6%

‐9,3%

‐10,0%

4,2%

2,5%

‐8,8%

‐8,8%

4,4%

3,0%

‐10,0%

‐9,0%

5,5%

3,4%

,4%

1,3%


‐‐‐12,

‐1

dec02 to dec08 dec08 to dec09 jan09 to jan10 feb09 to feb10 mar09 to mar10apr09 to apr10 may09 to may10 jun09 to jun10 jul09 to jul10

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7%

income Gini THEIL3,8%

‐1,6%

‐4,2%

‐0,4%

0,0%

‐1,8%

3,6%

‐1,9%

‐5,1%

7,7

‐1,4%

‐2,7%


‐

dec02 to dec08 dec08 to dec09 janjun09 to janjun10 jul09 to jul10

8% 9%

6% 5,1%

4,6%

7%

7,7%

income Gini THEIL

3,8

‐1,6%

‐4,2%

‐0,4%

0,0%

‐1,8%

0,9%

‐1,8%

%

3,9

‐1,5%

2%

3,6

‐1,5%

‐3,8%‐2,2%

,8%

4

‐1,9%

‐3,4%

3,7

‐2,2%

‐4,3%

‐1,4%

‐2,7%


‐7,2%

‐6,2 ‐5,

dec02 to dec08 dec08 to dec09 jan09 to jan10

feb09 to feb10 mar09 to mar10 apr09 to apr10

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Variation in Median Income and Electoral Cycles*

1982 3% 1990 -2% 2001 2%

Elections and “Expantions"

1983 -23% 1992 -3% 2002 1%

1984 -% 1993 -2% 2003 -4%

1985 20% 1995 25% 2004 6%

1986 53% 1996 0% 2005 9%

1987 -27% 1997 3% 2006 10%

1988 -11% 1998 2% 2007 2%

1989 6% 1999 -4%


Obs:In 1991, 1994 and 2000 PNAD did not go to the field

Documents

NCM Apresentação fim2 ENG3.ppt [Modo de Compatibilidade]§ão_fim2_ENG3.pdf · 7/10/2010 11 The Key Role of the New Middle Class. PoliticsThe 94.9 million Brazilians who are in