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Seminário PUC-RioEduardo Zilberman – PUC-Rio
26 de junho de 2020
Covid-19 Analytics (https://covid19analytics.com.br/)
Covid-19 Analytics (https://covid19analytics.com.br/)
Covid-19 Analytics (https://covid19analytics.com.br/)
Covid-19 Analytics (https://covid19analytics.com.br/)
• Crescimento ainda acelerado para novos casos.
• Crescimento linear para novas mortes.
• Nenhuma indicação de pico nos próximos 14 dias
• Vírus ainda em processo de disseminação Brasil adentro.
• Numero efetivo de reprodução vem caindo mas ainda está acima de um.
• Dois estados com número efetivo reprodução menor do que um.
Amazonas (R = 1.03)
0
50
100
150
200
Apple Mobilty
Brazil Chile Denmark Finland
France Germany Italy Portugal
Spain Sweden United Kingdom United States
Uruguay Amazonas
São Paulo (R = 1.22)
0
50
100
150
200
Apple Mobilty
Brazil Chile Denmark Finland
France Germany Italy Portugal
Spain Sweden United Kingdom United States
Uruguay Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo
Rio Grande do Sul (R = 1.40)
0
50
100
150
200
Apple Mobilty
Brazil Chile Denmark Finland
France Germany Italy Portugal
Spain Sweden United Kingdom United States
Uruguay Rio Grande do Sul
Puzzle: Rio de Janeiro! (R = 1.21)
0
50
100
150
200
Apple Mobilty
Brazil Chile Denmark Finland
France Germany Italy Portugal
Spain Sweden United Kingdom United States
Uruguay Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo
PANDEMIA E ECONOMIA
“The effect of social distancing measures on intensive care occupancy: Evidence on COVID-19 in Scandinavia.” Juranek e Zoutmany (2020).
“Pandemic, shutdown and consumer spending: Lessons from scandinavian policy responses to COVID-19.” Andersen, Hansen, Johannesen e Sheriand (2020).
Lockdown effects in US states: a synthetic control approachCarneiro, Ferreira, Medeiros, Pires e Zilberman (2020)
• No curto-prazo (+- três semanas), na média, aprox. 50% de casos a menos.
Economic and health impacts of social distancing policies during the coronavirus pandemicAllcott, Boxell, Conway, Ferguson, Gentzkow e Goldman (2020).
How did COVID-19 and stabilization policies affect spending and employment? Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner e time (2020).
Resumo: Evidência empírica
• Ao menos no mundo desenvolvido e no curto-prazo, lockdownsparecem efetivos para conter o número de casos (e mortes).
• Ao mesmo tempo, não parecem gerar grandes perdas econômicas (além daquelas que já ocorreriam normalmente sem lockdowns).
• Como conciliar? Hipótese: interação entre isolamento social voluntário e distribuição de renda.
“Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020.” Goolsbee e Syverson (2020)
explica aprox. 1/2 da variação
explica aprox. 1/10 da variação
Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence fromLinked Income, Spending, and Savings DataCox, Ganong, Noel, Vavra, Wong, Farrell, and Greig (2020)
CONSOLIDAÇÃO FISCAL
“Austerity: When It Work and When It Doesn’t”(Alesina, Favero and Giavazzi, 2018)
DEBT DYNAMICSRESPONSE OF GDP
“Does austerity pay off?” (Born, Muller and Pfeifer, REStat, 2020)
• Redução (não-antecipada) de 1 pp em Dg no default premium (bps).
• Importante: “no significant effect of spending increases (not shown).”
maximum stress no-stress
15.61** 58.81** -33.40**
(7.78) (17.34) (9.85)
“Does austerity pay off?” (Born, Muller and Pfeifer, REStat, 2020)
• Redução (não-antecipada) de 1 pp em Dg no default premium (bps).
• Limiar: 200 bps para emergentes, 30 bps para avançados.
unconditional maximum fiscal stress no fiscal stress
15.61** 58.81** -33.40**
(7.78) (17.34) (9.85)
“Does austerity pay off?” (Born, Muller and Pfeifer, REStat, 2020)
O que fazer quando “austerity is self-defeating”?
“Under these circumstances, a commitment to a credible medium-term strategy might be more promising.”
Default premium: Brasil
0
100
200
300
400
500
6000
4/0
1/2
01
00
1/0
4/2
01
02
9/0
6/2
01
02
3/0
9/2
01
02
0/1
2/2
01
01
6/0
3/2
01
11
3/0
6/2
01
10
7/0
9/2
01
10
2/1
2/2
01
12
8/0
2/2
01
22
5/0
5/2
01
22
1/0
8/2
01
21
5/1
1/2
01
21
3/0
2/2
01
31
3/0
5/2
01
30
7/0
8/2
01
30
1/1
1/2
01
33
0/0
1/2
01
42
9/0
4/2
01
42
4/0
7/2
01
42
0/1
0/2
01
41
6/0
1/2
01
51
4/0
4/2
01
50
9/0
7/2
01
50
5/1
0/2
01
53
1/1
2/2
01
53
0/0
3/2
01
62
4/0
6/2
01
62
0/0
9/2
01
61
5/1
2/2
01
61
3/0
3/2
01
70
8/0
6/2
01
70
5/0
9/2
01
73
0/1
1/2
01
70
1/0
3/2
01
82
9/0
5/2
01
82
3/0
8/2
01
81
9/1
1/2
01
81
5/0
2/2
01
91
4/0
5/2
01
90
8/0
8/2
01
90
4/1
1/2
01
93
1/0
1/2
02
02
9/0
4/2
02
0
EMBI + Risco-Brasil
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