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Modelos Computacionais para Simulação do Processo de Expansão da Esquistossomose na
Área Litorânea de Pernambuco
[email protected] (coord.)
Departamento de Estatística e Informática - DEINFO/UFRPECentro de Pesquisas Aggeu Magalhães - CPqAM/FIOCRUZ
Laboratório de Geoprocessamento e Sensoreamento Remoto - GEOCERE/UFRPE
Laboratório de Realidade Virtual e Visualização Científica – SVVR/LNCC
CASE STUDYTowards Computational Epidemiology
Using Stochastic Cellular Automata in Modeling Spread of Diseases
around the world…
Computational Epidemiology Research Laboratory
University of North TexasEmail: {venkatac, mikler}@cs.unt.edu
This research is in part supported by the National Science Foundation award: NSF-0350200
BR on modeling epidemics…
• Ordinary differential equations• Stochastic Methods• Modeling Simulation• Linear and Non-Linear Programming• Otimization
USP Lectures HEP5710Mathematical Models in EpidemiologyInformatics Department - Codage/USP
Stochastic Cellular Automata Stochastic Cellular Automata a global model…a global model…
Definition of a Fuzzy Set Neighborhood of cell Ci,j is global SCA
Gi,j := {(Ck,l, ΥC i ,j, C k ,l) |for all Ck,l Є C, 0 ≤ Υ Ci,j, Ck,l
≤ 1}
C is a set of all cells in the CA.
ΥC i ,j, C k ,l represents an interaction coefficient that controls all possible interactions between a cell Ci,j and its global neighborhood Gi,j.
A function of inter-cell distance and cell population density.
Itamaracá, Itamaracá, CPqAM/FIOCRUZ!!!!CPqAM/FIOCRUZ!!!!
CPqAM/FIOCRUZ… a lot of information!!CPqAM/FIOCRUZ… a lot of information!!
a cellular automata
VaccinationPopulation
Demographics
Disease Parameters
Data Sets
Visualization
Interaction factors
Distances
Composition Model -Experiment
Population distribution over the north Denton region.
Total Population of 110000 distributed over a grid size of 50 * 100.
Total Population infected at the end of simulation: 48000
Infected Population distribution over the north Denton region.
Goals…Goals…
• Designing tools for investigating local disease clusters through simulation.
• What’s New?– Utilizing GIS and EPI information for modeling – Combining different simulation paradigms– Designing a tool kit to establish a computational
epidemiology model to
How?How?
• CNPq Project: UFRPE and CPqAM/FIOCRUZ
– CMS – Content Management Systems– Mathematical studies– Monitoring and modelling– Analysis e reports
Who?Who?
Jones Albuquerque, Computer ScienceEngineering Systems (DEINFO/UFRPE)Silvana Bocanegra, Computer ScienceMathematics (DEINFO/UFRPE)
UFRPE
GEOCERE Computer Science
Biology
UFABC
(Tereza Raquel, Mathematics/UFABC)
FIOCRUZ
CPqAM
Constança Barbosa, Biology (CPqAM/FIOCRUZ)
Reinaldo Santos, Imaging Processing and Biology (FIOCRUZ-Rio)
Mathematics
LNCC
(Paulo Sérgio, SVVR/LNCC)
When?When?
• Phases– CMS and Epidemiology 2006/2007– Mathematics 2007– Computer Science 2007/2008– Information System 2008– Software Engineering 2008