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Mercado Internacional de Lítio –
Visão da CRU International
- demanda, oferta, cenários de preços e riscos - II Seminário sobre Lítio - Brasil – CETEM – Rio de Janeiro, jul.2016
Julia Ralph, Alice Yu, Márcio Goto
CRU International Ltd. Escritório Central Chancery House, 53-64 Chancery Lane, Londres, WC2A 1QS, UK – Reino Unido
Tel +44 20 7903 2000 Fax +44 20 7837 0976 Email [email protected]
www.crugroup.com
Contato na América Latina Márcio Goto – São Paulo, Brasil Tel +11 5051 8124 Cel +11 99 726 4466 Email [email protected]
PUBLICAÇÕES / CONSULTORIA / EVENTOS
CRU - Dados e Análises de Mercado e de Competitividade de Custos – com independência - em minerais, metais e fertilizantes – através de publicações, consultoria e eventos
Global economic
In-depth industry
Analysts and and commodity
knowledge
consultants market research
(companies, plants,
experienced in and analysis
costs technologies)
these sectors
Cost-effective and practical solutions to specialized industry problems
2
CRU – Quem somos?
3
4
“Setores” cobertos pela CRU:
Continuosly monitored / analysed / published
Covered through consultancy
4
Lithium Ion Batteries (LIB) are now the battery of choice for Electric Vehicles (EV) and consumer electronics
2000 2010 2020 2025
NiCd, NiMH & Others LIB Lead Acid
5
Data: Avicenne, CRU
280 GWh
800 GWh
600 GWh
380 GWh
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
NiCd NiMH LIBs
Global rechargeable battery market
(GWh) Battery market (million cells)
Data: CRU
Lithium demand to reach 421kt LCE by 2025, dominated by battery demand for EVs, particularly in China…
6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 2020 2025
Lithium demand by segment
Industrial Application Battery Application
Lithium demand
ktpa LCE % total Li demand
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
LIB units in EVs
China Ex-China
Million units
Data: CRU Data: CRU LCE = Lithium Carbonate Equivalent
LIB manufacturing plants - mostly in Asia (South Korea, Japan and China) - ~50% of new plants are in China
7
Data: CEMAC, CRU
Data: CEMAC, CRU
0
20
40
60
China US Europe
LIB capacity in project pipeline, GWh/y
China 62%
Japan 12%
Korea 17%
US 5%
Other 4%
2015 LIB manufacturing Capacity Total: 97 GWh/y
Country Japanese/Korean
involvement
China Yes (LG, Panasonic and SDI)
US Yes (Panasonic)
Europe No
Data: CRU
China to account for nearly 50% of total lithium demand by 2025 – driven by EVs - market share of other countries to fall…
8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2015 2020 2025
Lithium demand by country
China Japan South Korea US Data: CRU
New entrants to alter the current oligopoly in supply - brine x hard rock share remains at similar levels to 2025
9
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 2025
Capacity of brine and hard rock operations and projects
Existing operation - brine
Projects under development - brine
Existing operations - hard rock
Projects under development - hard rock
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
The Big 4's (Tianqi, SQM, Albemarle e Orocobre) share of global supply
Continue to fall?
Planned
start date Project Owner
2016
Mt. Marion
Neometals, Mineral
Resources and
Ganfeng
Heyuan Lihui Ganfeng
Yichun Deposit Jiangxi Motor
2017
Pilgangoora Lithium (ALT) Altura Mining
Limited Pilgangoora Lithium (PLS) Pilbara Minerals
Lithium Quebec Jilin Jien
Data: CRU
Price hikes and supply shortages have created many opportunities for downstream integration…
Potential lithium concentrate producers looking to producing lithium salts directly
e.g. Lithium Australia, Pilbara Minerals,
Neometals
Lithium salt producers acquiring mines
e.g. Tianqi, and Ganfeng
Battery makers securing raw material
supply
e.g. BYD
10
Lithium supply chain
Lithium salt producers obtaining off-takes
e.g. General Lithium
Where to next for lithium prices?
Nominal, US$/t
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
19
52
1
95
5
19
58
1
96
1
19
64
1
96
7
19
70
1
97
3
19
76
1
97
9
19
82
1
98
5
19
88
1
99
1
19
94
1
99
7
20
00
2
00
3
20
06
2
00
9
20
12
2
01
5
Source: GTIS, CRU
Lithium Carbonate Price* Market balance kt LCE
Source: CRU
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
*Lithium Carbonate Price is based on average unit values at the major
import and export destinations, as an average for the year. These
values are conceptually different and so will be below contract prices.
Prices before 2000 were estimated using historical rates of change in
the United States Geological Survey unit value series for lithium
Three possible underlying cost trend scenarios
12
Historical prices, lithium carbonate US$/t
Source: GTIS, CRU
*Lithium Carbonate Price is based on average unit values at the major import and export destinations, as an average for the year. These
values are conceptually different and so will be below contract prices. Prices before 2000 were estimated using historical rates of change
in the United States Geological Survey unit value series for lithium
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
2011
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
Aggressive Moderate
Muted
US$ / tonne
?
421kt LCE demand in 2025
Market value at stake
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● Potential for prices to crash due to aggressive
supply response (as above)
● Price volatility due to time delay / technical
issues with new projects
● Lack of benchmark pricing to result in highly
competitive supply contracts / lack of visibility
Demand:
● EV uptake lower than expected
in China
● Low oil prices and changing
consumer preferences for EVs
● Withdrawal / reduction in
governments support
● Low risk of substitution (CRU
view)
Supply:
● Too many new projects come
online, potential to flood the
market
● Countries with significant
under-developed lithium
deposits: Bolivia and Serbia
● Novel technology to disrupt the
current supply chain
● Potential of sustained and
large market surplus
● Secondary production of
various lithium compounds
e.g. lithium carbonate vs.
lithium hydroxide to disrupt the
supply chain
Balance:
● Potential of
sustained and
large market
surplus
● Secondary
production of
various lithium
compounds e.g.
lithium
carbonate vs.
lithium
hydroxide to
disrupt the
supply chain
Prices:
● Potential for
prices to crash
due to aggressive
supply response
(as above)
● Price volatility
due to time delay
/ technical issues
with new projects
● Lack of
benchmark
pricing to result
in highly
competitive
supply contracts /
lack of visibility
…and the risks
Conclusions
14
• LIBs will demonstrate the highest growth rates and investment activity among all rechargeable battery types mainly driven x EV
• China’s share of global lithium demand to increase at the expense of other countries
LIB demand to
be driven by EVs
• Supply shortages have caused price spikes, particularly in China
• Prices will continue to rise if new projects are not developed
Structural shift in supply dynamics
Significant price risks
• Price could crash if supply response is aggressive, and/or EV uptake is lower than expected
• Lots of new entrants (hard rock and brines), altering the current oligopolistic structure of lithium materials
• Integration of the supply chain to secure raw materials / competitive prices
Market currently in deficit
15
Executive Summary
Chapter 1 Introduction
Lithium basics
Key products and applications
Industry structure
Chapter 2 Lithium demand
CRU's Battery Demand Model
Lithium demand in 2015
Key demand drivers
Lithium demand forecasts by
region and end use to 2025
Opportunities and risks
Chapter 3 Lithium Supply
The Lithium reserve base
Mine Production by country
Lithium supply chain and raw
material flows
The outlook for new lithium
projects
Lithium supply in 2015
Lithium supply forecast to 2025
Chapter 4 The Supply - Demand
Balances
Traditional & new application
balances
Dealing with the projected deficit
…and during the next decade?
Chapter 5 Production Costs
Cost structure of lithium brines and
mines
CRU's Lithium Cost Curve 2015
CRU's Lithium, Cost Curve 2025
Chapter 6 Prices
Key products and prices
Historical pricing and trends
A new price cycle is beginning?
The price outlook
16
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07.Jul.2016 - Cobalt and Lithium the winners in battery demand
http://www.crugroup.com/about-
cru/cruinsight/Cobalt_and_Lithium_the_winners_in_battery_demand
01.Jun.2016 - Lithium - The Problem With Prices…
http://www.crugroup.com/about-cru/cruinsight/Lithium-The_Problem_With_Prices
04.May.2016 – Hard Rock Miners Set to Plug Supply Gap
http://www.crugroup.com/about-
cru/cruinsight/Hard_Rock_Miners_Set_to_Plug_Supply_Gap
14.Apr.2016 - The Rise Of Lithium - Demand Set To Surge
http://www.crugroup.com/about-cru/cruinsight/The_Rise_Of_Lithium-
Demand_Set_To_Surge
18
Artigos recentes publicados no website da CRU
Obrigado!
www.crugroup.com
Márcio Goto
Tel +11 5051 8124 - Cel +11 99 726 4466
Email [email protected]
19
PUBLICAÇÕES / CONSULTORIA / EVENTOS
