45
Balanço Indicadores de Actividade Demonstração de Resultados Indicadores de Liquidez Demonstração de Fluxos de Caixa Indicadores Bolsistas Indicadores de Rendibilidade Kwacc e Estrutura de Capitais Indicadores de Estrutura FCFF e FCFE

Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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Page 1: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Balanço Indicadores de Actividade

Demonstração de Resultados Indicadores de Liquidez

Demonstração de Fluxos de Caixa Indicadores Bolsistas

Indicadores de Rendibilidade Kwacc e Estrutura de Capitais

Indicadores de Estrutura FCFF e FCFE

Page 2: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Contas e Pressupostos

Estimação do g

Estimação FCFF

Projecções

Fontes

Rafael José Moreira

José Pedro Santos

David Pedro

Realizado por

Page 3: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Realizado por

100402084

100402026

060402054

Page 4: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Total Non-current assets

Total Current assets

Total assets

Total Equity

of a non-financial nature

of a financial nature

Current financial assets

Investments

Equity and Liabilities

Equity

Equity attributable to owners of the Parent

Non-controlling interests

Non-current financial liabilities

Non-current liabilities

Assets

Non-current assets

Intangible assets

Goodwill

Other intangible assets

Current assets sub-total

Discontinued operations/Non-current assets held for sale

Inventories

Trade and miscellaneous receivables and other current assets

Current income tax receivables

Other non-current assets

Investments in associates and joint ventures accounted for using the equity method

Other investments

Non-current financial assets

Miscellaneous receivables and other non-current assets

Deferred tax assets

Current assets

Tangible assets

Property, plant and equipment owned

Assets held under finance leases

BALANÇO

Page 5: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Total Non-current liabilities

Total Current Liabilities

Total Liabilities

Total Equity and liabilities

Trade and miscellaneous payables and other current liabilities

Current income tax payables

Current liabilities sub-total

Liabilities directly associated with Discontinued operations/Non-current assets held for sale

of a financial nature

of a non-financial nature

Employee benefits

Deferred tax liabilities

Provisions

Miscellaneous payables and other non-current liabilities

Current liabilities

Current financial liabilities

Page 6: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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millions of euros

(a)

Securities other than investments, financial receivables and other current financial assets

Financial receivables and other current financial assets

Cash and cash equivalents

(b)

(a+b)

( c)

of a non-financial nature

of a financial nature

Current financial assets

Investments

Equity and Liabilities

Equity

Equity attributable to owners of the Parent

Non-controlling interests

Non-current financial liabilities

Non-current liabilities

Assets

Non-current assets

Intangible assets

Goodwill

Other intangible assets

Current assets sub-total

Discontinued operations/Non-current assets held for sale

Inventories

Trade and miscellaneous receivables and other current assets

Current income tax receivables

Other non-current assets

Investments in associates and joint ventures accounted for using the equity method

Other investments

Non-current financial assets

Miscellaneous receivables and other non-current assets

Deferred tax assets

Current assets

Tangible assets

Property, plant and equipment owned

Assets held under finance leases

Page 7: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

(d)

( e)

(f=d+e)

(c+f)

Trade and miscellaneous payables and other current liabilities

Current income tax payables

Current liabilities sub-total

Liabilities directly associated with Discontinued operations/Non-current assets held for sale

of a financial nature

of a non-financial nature

Employee benefits

Deferred tax liabilities

Provisions

Miscellaneous payables and other non-current liabilities

Current liabilities

Current financial liabilities

Page 8: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

43,615 0.681% 43,912 -26.193% 32,410 0.000% 32,410 -7.646%

6,284 25.764% 7,903 0.304% 7,927 -15.504% 6,698 -6.241%

49,899 3.840% 51,815 -22.152% 40,337 -3.047% 39,108 -7.405%

13,717 12.073% 15,373 -5.906% 14,465 -11.621% 12,784 -3.794%

1,296 -9.182% 1,177 -13.849% 1,014 -0.789% 1,006 -8.549%

15,013 10.238% 16,550 -6.471% 15,479 -10.912% 13,790 -4.141%

435 -80.460% 85 -23.529% 65 0.000% 65 0.000%

53 -18.868% 43 -9.302% 39 0.000% 39 7.692%

1,119 66.488% 1,863 33.977% 2,496 -0.441% 2,485 -49.457%

893 4.591% 934 60.171% 1,496 -1.203% 1,478 8.728%

1,199 55.379% 1,863 -23.135% 1,432 0.000% 1,432 -27.444%

3,699 29.440% 4,788 15.455% 5,528 -0.525% 5,499 -27.096%

68,611 6.620% 73,153 -16.143% 61,344 -4.804% 58,397 -8.488%

408 -5.147% 387 12.661% 436 -22.477% 338 7.988%

7,447 4.606% 7,790 -10.064% 7,006 -6.180% 6,573 -18.013%

79 67.089% 132 -41.667% 77 0.000% 77 59.740%

39

1,843 -28.595% 1,316 -4.559% 1,256 -6.847% 1,170 39.402%

1,103 -60.290% 438

5,504 0.400% 5,526 34.564% 7,436 -6.576% 6,947 -17.317%

8,450 -13.846% 7,280 19.396% 8,692 -6.615% 8,117 -9.141%

16,423 -5.078% 15,589 3.990% 16,211 -6.823% 15,105 -12.267%

81 586 12.116%

1,152 -66.233% 389 3,508 -18.158%

1,233 -68.451% 389 4,094 -13.825%

17,656 -9.504% 15,978 1.458% 16,211 18.432% 19,199 -12.600%

86,267 3.320% 89,131 -12.988% 77,555 0.053% 77,596 -9.506%

25,952 11.047% 28,819 -32.760% 19,378 0.000% 19,378 -11.957%

1,168 224.572% 3,791 -4.141% 3,634 0.000% 3,634 -14.007%

27,120 20.243% 32,610 -29.433% 23,012 0.000% 23,012 -12.281%

36,797 -6.655% 34,348 -0.748% 34,091 -0.047% 34,075 -8.778%

Variação Variação Variação

2009

Variação

2010 2011 2012

Page 9: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

1,075 5.023% 1,129 -22.764% 872 0.000% 872 1.950%

198 418.687% 1,027 -17.429% 848 -57.429% 361 -35.180%

782 9.974% 860 0.349% 863 -16.107% 724 -3.453%

1,084 0.185% 1,086 -3.039% 1,053 -4.938% 1,001 -22.178%

39,936 -3.721% 38,450 -1.880% 37,727 -1.840% 37,033 -9.041%

6,941 -0.850% 6,882 -10.636% 6,150 -0.114% 6,143 -0.391%

11,020 -0.599% 10,954 -3.761% 10,542 -8.110% 9,687 -10.715%

283 -16.961% 235 -47.234% 124 -57.258% 53 -62.264%

18,244 -0.948% 18,071 -6.945% 16,816 -5.548% 15,883 -6.894%

659 23 17.391%

308 1,645 -6.748%

967 1,668 -6.415%

19,211 -5.934% 18,071 -6.945% 16,816 4.371% 17,551 -6.849%

59,147 -4.440% 56,521 -3.500% 54,543 0.075% 54,584 -8.336%

86,267 3.320% 89,131 -12.988% 77,555 0.053% 77,596 -9.506%

Page 10: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

29,932

6,280

36,212

12,299

920

13,219

65

42

1,256

1,607

1,039

4,009

53,440

365

5,389

123

1,631

5,744

7,375

13,252

657

2,871

3,528

16,780

70,220

17,061

3,125

20,186

31,084

2013

Page 11: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

889

234

699

779

33,685

6,119

8,649

20

14,788

27

1,534

1,561

16,349

50,034

70,220

Page 12: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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millions of euros

26,894 2.517% 27,571

280 -8.929% 255

27,174 2.399% 27,826

-11,480 -0.845% -11,383

-3,734 7.686% -4,021

-1,345 5.725% -1,422

-15 800.000% -135

515 6.214% 547

-5,551 -0.072% -5,547

-59 -118.644% 11

-12 425.000% -63

5,493 5.826% 5,813

-51 -666.667% 289

2,561 20.305% 3,081

-4,731 8.962% -5,155

3,339 23.600% 4,127

-1,121 -51.115% -548

2,218 61.362% 3,579

1,596 123.810% 3,572

Owners of the Parent 1,581 97.407% 3,121

Non-controlling interests 15 2906.667% 451

-7-622 -98.875%

11,41211,115 2.672%

9967 47.761%

Other operating expenses

Employee benefits expenses

Acquisition of goods and services

Total operating revenues and other income

Other income

Gains (losses) on disposals of non-current assets

Depreciation and amortization

Operating profit before depreciation and amortization,

capital gains (losses) and impairment reversals (losses) on

non-current assets (EBITDA)

Internally generated assets

Change in inventories

Operating profit (loss) (EBIT)

Attributable to:

Profit (loss) for the year

Profit (loss) from Discontinued operations/Non-current assets

held for sale

Profit (loss) from continuing operations

Income tax expense

Profit (loss) before tax from continuing operations

Finance expenses

Finance income

Other income (expenses) from investments

Share of profits (losses) of associates and joint ventures

accounted for using the equity method

Revenues

Impairment reversals (losses) on non-current assets

DEMONTRAÇÃO DE RESULTADOS

Variação

2009 2010

Page 13: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

8.654% 29,957 -14.013% 25,759 -9.131% 23,407

17.255% 299 -4.682% 285 13.684% 324

8.733% 30,256 -13.921% 26,044 -8.881% 23,731

12.967% -12,859 -12.209% -11,289 -8.079% -10,377

-0.721% -3,992 -16.508% -3,333 -7.381% -3,087

30.731% -1,859 -20.710% -1,474 -10.583% -1,318

-141.481% 56 -107.143% -4 -1300.000% 48

4.022% 569 2.109% 581 -6.540% 543

-0.919% -5,496 -14.683% -4,689 -2.900% -4,553

-72.727% 3 1633.333% 52 -257.692% -82

11579.365% -7,358 -43.205% -4,179 -47.667% -2,187

-111.698% -680 -351.324% 1,709 59.040% 2,718

-94.464% 16 -87.500% 2 -250.000% -3

-20.026% 2,464 -19.521% 1,983 1.009% 2,003

-12.629% -4,504 -11.612% -3,981 5.149% -4,186

-166.465% -2,743 -89.318% -293 -281.570% 532

193.796% -1,610 -32.547% -1,086 2.302% -1,111

-221.626% -4,353 -68.321% -1,379 -58.013% -579

-222.228% -4,366 -70.751% -1,277 -81.363% -238

-254.149% -4,811 -66.182% -1,627 -58.574% -674

-1.330% 445 -21.348% 350 24.571% 436

341102-13 234.314%-884.615%85.714%

9,54010,52512,171 -13.524% -9.359%6.651%

-6-39 -84.615%-139.394% -100.000%

2012 2013

VariaçãoVariaçãoVariação

2011

Page 14: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Cash flows from (used in) investing activities

Cash flows from (used in) financing activities

Cash flows from (used in) discontinued operations/non-current assets held for sale

Aggregate cash flows

Acquisition of control of subsidiaries or other businesses, net of cash acquired

Acquisitions/disposals of other investments

Change in financial receivables and other financial assets

Proceeds from sale that result in a loss of control of subsidiaries or other businesses, net of cash disposed of

Proceeds from sale/repayments of intangible, tangible and other noncurrent assets

Net cash and cash equivalents arrising from the acquisition of the control of the Sofora Group - Argentina

Net cash and cash equivalents at beginning of the year

Net foreign exchange differences on net cash and cash equivalents

Net cash and cash equivalents at end of the year

Changes in ownership interests in consolidated subsidiaries

Cash flows from financing activities:

Change in current financial liabilities and other

Proceeds from non-current financial liabilities (including current portion)

Repayments of non-current financial liabilities (including current portion)

Share capital proceeds/reimbursements (including subsidiaries)

Dividends paid

Net change in current income tax receivables/payables

Net change in miscellaneous receivables/payables and other assets/liabilities

Cash flows from investing activities:

Total purchase of intangible and tangible assets on an accrual basis

Total purchase of intangible and tangible assets on a cash basis

Cash flows from (used in) operating activities

Change in trade payables

Cash flows from operating activities:

Profit (loss) from continuing operations

Adjustments for:

Depreciation and amortization

Impairment losses (reversals) on non-current assets (including investments)

Net change in deferred tax assets and liabilities

Losses (gains) realized on disposals of non-current assets (including investments)

Share of losses (profits) of associates and joint ventures accounted for using the equity method

Change in provisions for employee benefits

Change in inventories

Change in trade receivables and net amounts due from customers on construction contracts

DEMONSTRAÇÃO DE FLUXOS DE CAIXA

Page 15: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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millions of euros

2,218 61.36% 3,579 -221.63%

5,551 -0.07% 5,547 -0.92%

27 -529.63% -116 -6449.14%

-48 1462.50% -750 -120.80%

55 -174.55% -41 -56.10%

-67 47.76% -99 -139.39%

-173 -142.20% 73 -339.73%

-30 -420.00% 96 -137.50%

336 -96.13% 13 -76.92%

-995 -72.06% -278 -41.01%

-1,170 -85.47% -170 -152.94%

-229 328.38% -981 -111.11%

(a) 5,475 25.53% 6,873 23.85%

Purchase of intangible assets on an accrual basis -2,017 -11.70% -1,781 72.15%

Purchase of tangible assets on an accrual basis -2,526 10.93% -2,802 8.10%

-4,543 0.88% -4,583 32.99%

Change in amounts due to fixed asset suppliers 619 -83.36% 103 440.78%

-3,924 14.17% -4,480 23.62%

-4 16600.00%

392 -100.00%

-6 -683.33% 35 -102.86%

-692 -172.54% 502 -215.54%

-13 -1484.62% 180 -71.67%

66 -15.15% 56 676.79%

(b) -4,569 -27.36% -3,319 89.85%

-1,123 -185.22% 957 41.17%

5,563 -63.92% 2,007 125.36%

-4,260 37.14% -5,842 -9.45%

-11 -100.00%

67 -2079.10%

-1,050 4.10% -1,093 -80.70%

(c) -881 343.13% -3,904 -81.74%

(d) 61 -100.00%

(e=a+b+c+d) 86 -506.98% -350 -528.00%

(f) 5,226 4.94% 5,484 -3.68%

(g) 172 -13.95% 148 -174.32%

(h=e+f+g) 5,484 -3.68% 5,282 26.28%

Acquisition of control of subsidiaries or other businesses, net of cash acquired

Acquisitions/disposals of other investments

Change in financial receivables and other financial assets

Proceeds from sale that result in a loss of control of subsidiaries or other businesses, net of cash disposed of

Proceeds from sale/repayments of intangible, tangible and other noncurrent assets

Net cash and cash equivalents arrising from the acquisition of the control of the Sofora Group - Argentina

Changes in ownership interests in consolidated subsidiaries

Cash flows from financing activities:

Change in current financial liabilities and other

Proceeds from non-current financial liabilities (including current portion)

Repayments of non-current financial liabilities (including current portion)

Share capital proceeds/reimbursements (including subsidiaries)

Dividends paid

Net change in current income tax receivables/payables

Net change in miscellaneous receivables/payables and other assets/liabilities

Cash flows from investing activities:

Total purchase of intangible and tangible assets on an accrual basis

Total purchase of intangible and tangible assets on a cash basis

Change in trade payables

Cash flows from operating activities:

Profit (loss) from continuing operations

Adjustments for:

Depreciation and amortization

Impairment losses (reversals) on non-current assets (including investments)

Net change in deferred tax assets and liabilities

Losses (gains) realized on disposals of non-current assets (including investments)

Share of losses (profits) of associates and joint ventures accounted for using the equity method

Change in provisions for employee benefits

Change in inventories

Change in trade receivables and net amounts due from customers on construction contracts

2009 2010

Variação Variação

Page 16: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

-4,353 -68.32% -1,379 -58.01% -579

5,496 -14.68% 4,689 -2.90% 4,553

7,365 -43.23% 4,181 -47.45% 2,197

156 78.85% 279 24.37% 347

-18 194.44% -53 -254.72% 82

39 -84.62% 6 -100.00%

-175 30.86% -229 -78.60% -49

-36 -133.33% 12 -291.67% -23

3 27400.00% 825 30.18% 1,074

-164 -49.39% -83 489.16% -489

90 -582.22% -434 -76.04% -104

109 -203.67% -113 137.17% -268

8,512 -9.53% 7,701 -12.47% 6,741

-3,066 -39.63% -1,851 2.38% -1,895

-3,029 -7.96% -2,788 -10.15% -2,505

-6,095 -23.89% -4,639 -5.15% -4,400

557 -111.31% -63 -114.29% 9

-5,538 -15.10% -4,702 -6.61% -4,391

-668 -98.95% -7 14.29% -8

-1 200.00% -3 -100.00%

-580 -206.21% 616 -1.95% 604

51 -21.57% 40 -360.00% -104

435 -82.99% 74 18.92% 88

-6,301 -36.80% -3,982 -4.29% -3,811

1,351 -158.25% -787 126.81% -1,785

4,523 2.06% 4,616 -10.03% 4,153

-5,290 5.46% -5,579 -0.50% -5,551

240 -100.83% -2 -550.00% 9

-1,326 -27.30% -964 -44.29% -537

-211 -100.00% 79

-713 280.93% -2,716 33.73% -3,632

-29 -537.93% 127

1,498 -34.98% 974 -159.03% -575

5,282 26.28% 6,670 10.90% 7,397

-110 124.55% -247 112.96% -526

6,670 10.90% 7,397 -14.88% 6,296

Variação

20132011 2012

Variação

Page 17: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

5.873% 118.565% 12.837% -212.412% -14.430%

1.850% 116.618% 4.008% -240.472% -5.630%

5.885% 86.130% 10.954% -273.208% -18.973%

Rendibilidade das Vendas 5.873% 118.565% 12.837% -212.412% -14.430%

Rotação do Activo 31.500% -0.891% 31.219% 24.963% 39.012%

Alavancagem 318.094% -14.074% 273.324% 23.304% 337.020%

ROE 5.885% 86.130% 10.954% -273.208% -18.973%

Análise Dupont Sintéctica

Rendibilidade das Vendas

Rendibilidade Financeira (ROE)

Rendibilidade dos Activos (ROA)

INDICADORES DE RENDIBILIDADE201120102009

Variação Variação

Page 18: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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-66.021% -4.903% -79.546% -1.003%

-70.767% -1.646% -79.405% -0.339%

-70.751% -5.549% -78.753% -1.179%

-66.021% -4.903% -79.546% -1.003%

-13.967% 33.564% 0.690% 33.795%

0.053% 337.198% 3.163% 347.865%

-70.751% -5.549% -78.753% -1.179%

Variação

20132012

Variação

Page 19: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Autonomia Financeira 31.437% 16.380% 36.587% -18.900% 29.672%

Debt-to-Equity 218.094% -20.528% 173.324% 36.749% 237.020%

Regra de Equilíbrio Financeiro Mínimo 0.977336 -0.609% 0.971389 1.930% 0.990138

INDICADORES DE ESTRUTURA2009

Variação

2010

Variação

2011

Page 20: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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-0.053% 29.656% -3.066% 28.747%

0.075% 237.198% 4.497% 247.865%

3.846% 1.028221 -1.960% 1.008065

Variação

2012

Variação

2013

Page 21: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Fundo de Maneio -1,555 34.60% -2,093 -71.09% -605

Variação de Fundo de Maneio -538 1,488

INDICADORES DE ACTIVIDADE2009

Variação

2010

Variação

2011

Page 22: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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-372.40% 1,648 -73.85% 431

2,253 -1,217

Variação

2012

Variação

2013

Page 23: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Liquidez Geral 0.919057 -3.79% 0.884179 9.03% 0.964022

Liquidez Reduzida 0.897819 -3.90% 0.862764 8.73% 0.938095

INDICADORES DE LIQUIDEZ2009

Variação

2010

Variação

2011

Page 24: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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13.47% 1.093898 -6.17% 1.026362

14.56% 1.07464 -6.57% 1.004037

Variação

2012

Variação

2013

Page 25: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Data dia.mês 13.11 29.12

0.96 14.063% 1.095 -9.589%

Equity millions of euros 21,250.695 -9.463%

Total Shares Issued millions of euros 19,407.028

Dividendos Pagos millions of euros 0

13.441 -54.137%

0.784 -24.705%

0

0.081 97.132%

0

0%

12.329% -188.852%

INDICADORES BOLSISTAS2008

Variação

2009

Variação

Price Earnings Ratio

Cotação

Rendibilidade da Acção

Dividend Yield

Payout Ratio

Earnings per Share

Dividends per Share

Price Book Value

Page 26: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

29.12 30.12 28.12 27.12

0.990 -16.061% 0.831 -17.810% 0.683 4.978% 0.717

19,239.743 -16.022% 16,157.100 -17.810% 13,279.542 4.979% 13,940.749

19,434.084 19,442.960 19,442.960 19,443.164

-67 -2079.104% 1,326 -27.300% 964 -44.295% 537

6.165 -154.478% -3.358 143.034% -8.162 153.414% -20.684

0.590 19.004% 0.702 -17.810% 0.577 19.676% 0.691

-0.003 -2078.201% 0.068 -27.300% 0.050 -44.295% 0.028

0.161 -254.079% -0.247 -66.182% -0.084 -58.574% -0.035

-0.021 1183.888% -0.276 114.972% -0.593 34.470% -0.797

-0.348% -2456.702% 8.207% -11.547% 7.259% -46.937% 3.852%

-10.954% -0.252% -10.927% 31.878% -14.410% -159.640% 8.594%

20132010

Variação

2011

Variação

2012

Variação

Page 27: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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Page 28: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Nº acções (27-12-2012) (millions of euros) 19,443.164

Cotação (27-12-2012) 0.717

Valor de Mercado do Equity (e) 13,940.749

Valor de mercado da Divida ** (d) 37,230

Total (e+d) 51,170.749

D/E 2.671

Cash (2013) (millions of euros) 6,296

Taxa de imposto efectiva (2013) 40%

Taxa de imposto marginal (2013) 27.5%

Equity Risk Premium *** 7.85%

Taxa isenta de risco *** 4.4%

2.219

0.853

BB

4.00%

8.40%

5.04%

6.09%

KWACC

(millions of euros)

(millions of euros)

(millions of euros)

0.568

Rating 2013 *****

Spread

Kd

Stable Growth Period

High Growth Period

Stable Growth Period

High Growth Period

Bottom up Beta da TI (BL)*

BU

Kd efectivo

Kd (com taxa marginal)

Beta unlevered setor telecom*

Page 29: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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We 27.24%

Wd 72.76%

ke 11.09%

ke 8.85%

kd 6.09%

kd 6.09%

kwacc 7.45%

kwacc 6.46%

Estimação do ke (SGP)

Estimação do kwacc (HGP)

Estimação do kd (HGP)

Estimação do kd (SGP)

ESTRUTURAS DE CAPITAIS

Estimação do ke (HGP)

Estimação do kwacc (SGP)

Page 30: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Dados CAPEX Anos EBIT EBIT(1-T)

2009 2009 5,493 3,648.839

Δ% 2010 5,813 5,041.126

2010 2011 -680 -1,079.125

Δ% 2012 1,709 8,043.382

2011 2013 2,718 -2,958.124

Δ%

2012

Δ% Anos EBIT

2013 4,400 2009 5,493

A usar - 2010 5,813

2011 -680

2012 1,709

2013 2,718

Anos EBIT(1-T) ∆FM CAPEX - Amortizações ROA g g

2009 3,648.839 - -1,008 1.85% - -

2010 5,041.126 -538 -964 4.01% -1.19% 3.32%

2011 -1,079.125 1,488 599 -5.63% 10.89% -12.99%

2012 8,043.382 2,253 -50 -1.65% -0.45% 0.05%

Tx Reinvestimento EBIT

-

27.39%

-193.40%

-29.79%

-

FCFF e FCFE

Passivo Financeiro

44,397

-153

-50

599

-964

-7.133%

41,230

-2.399%

40,241

0%

40,241

-7.482%

37,230 -1,008

CAPEX - Amortizações

ou

T: taxa efectiva de imposto

33.57%

13.28%

-58.69%

-370.65%

208.83%

40.00%

4,639

6,095

4,583

4,543

Page 31: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

2013 -2,958.124 -1,217 -153 -0.34% -0.16% -9.51%46.31%

Page 32: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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∆FM FCFF

- -

-538 6,543.126

1488 -3,166.125

2253 5,840.382

-1217 -1,588.124

Mediana 2,126.129

∆FM ∆D FCFE

- - -

-538 -3,167 4,148

1,488 -989 -3,756

2,253 0 -494

-1,217 -3,011 1,077

Mediana 291.500

-153

-50

599

-964

-1,008

CAPEX - Amortizações

CAPEX - Amortizações

-1,008

-964

599

-50

-153

Page 33: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

26,894 27,571 29,957 25,759 23,407

5,493 5,813 -680 1,709 2,718

20.42% 21.08% -2.27% 6.63% 11.61%

3,339 4,127 -2,743 -293 532

27.50% 27.50% 27.50% 27.50% 27.50%

33.57% 13.28% -58.69% -370.65% 208.83%

0 -538 1,488 2,253 -1,217

15,013 16,550 15,479 13,790 13,219

5,551 5,547 5,496 4,689 4,553

4,543 4,583 6,095 4,639 4,400

-1,008 -964 599 -50 -153

27,120 32,610 23,012 23,012 20,186

44,397 41,230 40,241 40,241 37,230

5,484 5,282 6,670 7,397 6,296

CONTAS E PRESUPOSTOS

Receitas (Vendas/Prest. Serviços)

Resultado Operacional / EBIT

Margem EBIT

Despesas com impostos

Resultado antes impostos

Taxa de imposto marginal

Taxa de imposto efectiva

Caixa e Equivalentes

Variação Fundo de Maneio

Activos Fixos

Amortizações

Capex

Investimento Liquido:

Total Capital Próprio

Dívida

Page 34: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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Média Δ Média A usar 2009

26,717.60 -2.61% ∆ FM 0

3,010.60 -18.43% CAPEX Liq. -1,008

EBIT(1-T) 3,648.839

11.50% -15.33% 11.50% Tx Reinvestimento -27.63%

-34.73% -100.92% 40%

2009

397.20 -61.28% Net Income 1,596

Invested Capital 86,267

14,810.20 -2.42% ROA 1.85%

5,167.20 -3.86%

4,852.00 -0.59%

-315.20 -54.25%

25,188.00 -5.51%

40,667.80 -3.52% 2009

Tx Reinvestimento -27.63%

6,225.80 2.61% ROA 1.85%

EBIT on Assets 6.37%

g

Taxa de Crescimento Global da Empresa

Taxa de reinvestimento do EBIT = *(∆FM + CAPEX liquido)/EBIT(1

Page 35: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

2010 2011 2012 2013

0 1,488 2,253 0

-964 599 -50 -153 61

5,041.126 -1,079.125 8,043.382 -2,958.124 Média 2,539.22

-19.12% -193.40% 27.39% 5.17% Média Geo 15.75%

8.50% 46.51% -22.22%

30.78% 243.23% -81.12%

2010 2011 2012 2013

3,572 -4,366 -1,277 -238

89,131 77,555 77,596 70,220

4.01% -5.63% -1.65% -0.34%

2010 2011 2012 2013 Mediana Média

-19.12% -193.40% 27.39% 5.17% -19.12% -41.52%

4.01% -5.63% -1.65% -0.34% -0.34% -0.35%

6.52% -0.88% 2.20% 3.87% 3.87% 3.62%

-1.25% 1.70% 0.60% 0.20% 0.40% 0.31%

Taxa de Crescimento Global da Empresa

Taxa de reinvestimento do EBIT = *(∆FM + CAPEX liquido)/EBIT(1-T)] (T efectiva)

ROA= Net income/Invested Capital

EBIT On Assets = EBIT/Assets

Page 36: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Δ % 64.30%

Tx a usar

16.28%

3.62%

0.20%

Page 37: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

HGP

Ano 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

EBIT On Assets 4.45% 5.47% 6.73% 8.28% 10.18% 12.52% 15.40% kwacc HGP 7.45%

Tx Reinvestimento 15.75% 20.81% 27.50% 23.08% 18.13% 12.30% 4.39%

g (HGP) 0.70% 1.14% 1.85% 1.91% 1.85% 1.54% 0.68%

SGP kwacc SGP 6.46%

EBIT On Assets 6.46%

Tx Reinvestimento 34.92%

g (SGP) 2.26%

ESTIMAÇÃO DO g

Page 38: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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Page 39: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Ano 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

EBIT (1-T) 2,539.220 2,557.010 2,586.129 2,633.996 2,684.321

ΔFM 0 0 0 0 0

Investimento Líquido -153 60.750 61.442 62.579 61.383

FCFF 2,692.220 2,496.260 2,524.687 2,571.417 2,622.937

ESTIMAÇÃO DOS FFCF's

Page 40: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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2018 2019 2020 2021

2,709.100 2,729.971 2,739.206 2,739.206

0 0 0 0

60.250 59.322 58.920 58.920

2,648.850 2,670.649 2,680.286 2,680.286

Page 41: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

Ano 2013

g

FCFF 2,692.220

Ano 2014

FCFF 2,496.260

Kwacc 7.45%

Valor Actualizado 2,323.108

FCFF 2021

2,680.286

FCFF 2014/2020 Actualizado

16,951.601

Enterprise Value

58,359.136

Firm Value

59,990.136

Equity Value

22,760.136

PROJECÇÕES

Estimação dos FCFF's

Valor Actualizado dos FCFF's Futuros

Potencial Valorização/Desvalorização

HPG

Valor Residual

Estimativa Equity Value

Estimativa Firm Value

Estimativa Enterprise Value

Estimativa do Valor por Acção

Page 42: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

2014 2015 2016 2017

0.70% 1.14% 1.85% 1.91%

2,496.260 2,524.687 2,571.417 2,622.937

2015 2016 2017 2018

2,524.687 2,571.417 2,622.937 2,648.850

7.45% 7.45% 7.45% 7.45%

2,349.563 2,393.051 2,440.998 2,465.113

g Kwacc(SPG) Kwacc(HPG) VR

2.26% 6.46% 7.45% 63,738.613

VR Actualizado Enterprise Value

41,407.535 58,359.136

VMAEE Firm Value

1,631 59,990.136

Dívida Equity Value

37,230.000 22,760.136

Nº Acções Valor Acção

19,443.164 1.171

63.26%

HPG

Valor por Acção Atual

0.717

Page 43: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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SPG

2018 2019 2020 2021

1.85% 1.54% 0.68% 2.26%

2,648.850 2,670.649 2,680.286 2,680.286

2019 2020

2,670.649 2,680.286

7.45% 7.45%

2,485.400 2,494.368 16,951.601

HPG

TOTAL

Valor por Acção Atual

0.717

VR Actualizado

41,407.535

Page 44: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

www.telecomitalia.com

www.investopedia.com

www.sigarra.fep.up.pt (slides da disciplina Finanças Empresariais)

FONTES

www.bloomberg.com

www.nyse.com

www.damodaran.com

www.netcoag.com

Page 45: Telecom Itália - Rafael - David - José

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www.telecomitalia.com

www.investopedia.com

www.sigarra.fep.up.pt (slides da disciplina Finanças Empresariais)

www.bloomberg.com

www.nyse.com

www.damodaran.com

www.netcoag.com