EIA AEO2011 Slides

7/31/2019 EIA AEO2011 Slides

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www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Spring, 2011 | Washington, DC

Annual Energy Outlook 2011Reference Case


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Key results from the AEO2011 Reference case,

which assumes current laws remain unchanged

2AEO2011, April 2011

Increased estimates for U.S. shale gas resources drive increasedU.S. production, lower prices, and lower imports of natural gas

Industrial natural gas demand recovers, reversing recent trend

Non-hydro renewables and natural gas are the fastest growingelectricity generation sources, but coal remains the dominant fuelbecause of the large amount of existing capacity

Oil imports fall due to increased domestic productionincludingbiofuelsand greater fuel efficiency

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions rise slowly, but do not pass 2005levels again until 2027


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What is included (and excluded) in developing EIAs

Reference case projections?

3

Generally assumes current laws and regulations excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation

and proposed fuel economy standards are not included)

provisions generally sunset as specified in law (e.g., renewable tax credits expire)

Some grey areas

adds a premium to the capital cost of CO2-intensive technologies to reflect market behaviorregarding possible CO2 regulation

assumes implementation of existing regulations that enable the building of new energyinfrastructure and resource extraction

Includes technologies that are commercial or reasonably expected

to become commercial over next decade or so includes projected technology cost and efficiency improvements, as well as cost reductions

linked to cumulative deployment levels

does not assume revolutionary or breakthrough technologies

AEO2011, April 2011


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Key updates included in the AEO2011

Reference case

4

Natural gas and oil supply more than doubled the technically recoverable U.S. shale gas resources assumed in

AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources

updated offshore data and assumptions, pushing out start dates for several projects as aresult of the drilling moratoria and delaying offshore leasing beyond 2017

Electricity updated costs for new power plants

expanded number of electricity regions to 22 from 13, allowing better regionalrepresentation of market structure and power flow

Transport

increased limit for ethanol blending into gasoline from E10 to E15 for approved vehicles

includes Californias Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which reduces the carbon intensity ofgasoline and diesel fuels in that state by 10% from 2012 through 2020

revised light duty vehicle miles travelled downward

updated electric and plug-in hybrid electric battery cost and size

AEO2011, April 2011


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Global energy consumption



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Non-OECD countries account for vast majority of the nearly

50% projected increase in global energy use by 2035

6

495

544591

639

687

739

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

energy consumption

quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

Non-OECD

OECD

USA

50%

50%

62%

38%

AEO2011, April 2011


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Overview of U.S. energy

supply and demand



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Current U.S. energy supply is 83% fossil fuels;

demand is broadly distributed among the major sectors

8

Petroleum35.30%

NaturalGas

23.40%

Coal19.70%

Renewable7.70%

Nuclear8.30%

2009 total U.S. energy use = 94.6 quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2009

Industrial18.80%

Transportation

27.00%

Residentialand

Commercial

10.60%

Electricity -Residential

14.60%

Electricity -Commerci

al14.17%

Electricity -Industrial

9.45%

Energy supply Energy demand

AEO2011, April 2011


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Renewables grow rapidly, but under current policies fossil fuels

still provide 78% of U.S. energy use in 2035

9

Nuclear

Oil and other liquid

fuels

Liquid biofuels

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables(excluding liquid

biofuels)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

U.S. primary energy consumption

quadrillion Btu per year

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011

History Projections2009

37%

25%

21%

9%

7%

1%

33%

24%

21%

10%

8%

3%

Shares of total U.S. energy

AEO2011, April 2011


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Energy efficiency gains reduce consumption 13% from where it

would otherwise be; structural change is even larger

10

quadrillion Btu


0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Constant Intensity

ConstantEfficiency

Reference CaseConsumption

Efficiencychange

Structuralchange-33%

-13%

AEO2011, April 2011


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Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline;

per-capita energy use also declines

11

index, 2005=1


0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Per dollar

Per capita

CO2 per GDP

History Projections2009

AEO2011, April 2011


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Energy-related CO2 emissions

2005 2020 2035

Energy-related CO2emissions

6.00 5.78 6.31

% change from 2005 - - -3.7% 5.2%

In the AEO2011 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions

grow 5% over 2005 levels by 2035

12

billion metric tons carbon dioxide


ProjectionsHistory 20092005

AEO2011, April 2011


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Electricity

13AEO2011, April 2011


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In 2009, U.S. electricity generation was 70% fossil fuels, 20%

nuclear, and 10% renewable

Nuclear20.2%

Natural gas23.3%

2009 Total net generation:

3,953 billion kWh

Coal44.6%

2009 Non-hydro renewable

net generation:141 billion kWh

Geothermal: 0.4%Other biomass: 0.5%

Wood and wood-derived fuels: 0.9%

Otherrenewable

3.6%

Conventionalhydroelectric

6.9%

Other0.3%

Wind: 1.8%

Solar thermaland PV:


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While projected electricity consumption grows by 30%, the rate

of growth has slowed

15

percent growth (3-year rolling average)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Projections

History

Period Annual Growth

1950s 9.8

1960s 7.31970s 4.7

1980s 2.9

1990s 2.4

2000-2009 0.5

2009-2035 1.0

2009

AEO2011, April 2011


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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

45%

23%

10%

20%

1%

Coal

Natural gas

Renewable

Nuclear

Oil and other


25%

1%

43%

14%

17%

The Reference case electricity mix in AEO2011 gradually shifts to lower-carbon

options, with generation from natural gas rising 40% and renewables rising 75%

16

electricity net generation

trillion kilowatthours per year


AEO2011, April 2011


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Updated electric power plant capital costs show increases for

nuclear, coal, and wind, while solar costs decline

17

overnight capital cost2009 dollars per kilowatt


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Natural GasCC

PulverizedCoal

IGCCCCS

Nuclear Wind Biomass SolarThermal

Photovoltaic

AEO 2010 AEO 2011

+ 1%

+ 25%

+ 39% + 37%

+ 21%

- 2%

- 10%

- 25%

AEO2011, April 2011


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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


Non-hydro renewable sources grow nearly three-fold, meeting

22% of projected electricity generation growth

18

non-hydropower renewable generation

billion kilowatthours per year


Wind

Solar

Biomass

Geothermal

Waste

Industrial CHP

Power sector

Advanced biofuels

cogeneration

AEO2011, April 2011


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Natural gas, wind and other renewables account for the vast

majority of capacity additions from 2009 to 2035

19


Coal313 (30%)

Natural gas351 (34%)

Hydropower*99 (10%)

Nuclear101 (10%)

Otherrenewables

15 (1%)

Other fossil118 (11%)

* Includes pumped storage

Coal14 (6%)

Natural gas

135 (60%)

Hydropower*3 (1%)

Nuclear6 (3%)

Other renewables28 (12%)

Otherfossil

1 (0.4%)

2009 capacity Capacity additions 2009 to2035

1,033gigawatts

223gigawatts

Wind25 (11%)

Wind32 (3%)

End-use coal

4 (0.3%)

End-use coal12 (5%)

AEO2011, April 2011


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Natural Gas

20AEO2011, April 2011


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Over the last decade, U.S. shale gas production has increased 14-

fold and now comprises about 22 percent of total U.S. production

21

annual shale gas production

trillion cubic feet

Sources: EIA, Lippman Consulting

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Eagle Ford (TX)

Marcellus (PA and Other Eastern states)

Haynesville (LA and TX)

Woodford (OK)

Fayetteville (AR)Barnett (TX)

Antrim (MI, IN, and OH)

AEO2011, April 2011


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Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S.

technically recoverable natural gas resources

22

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

U.S. dry gas resources

trillion cubic feet

*Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously publisheddocumentation.


2543

245

827

1472

Unproved shale gas

Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore)

Proved reserves (all types and locations)

AEO2011, April 2011


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30% domestic gas production growth outpaces 16%

consumption growth, leading to declining imports

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

U.S. dry gas

trillion cubic feet per year



Consumption

Domestic supply

AEO2011 Reference case

AEO2010Reference case

Net imports 11%

1%

6%

AEO2011, April 2011


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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

2%

Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. supply to meet

consumption growth and lower import needs

24

U.S. dry gas



Non-associated offshore

ProjectionsHistory

Associated with oil

Coalbed methane

Net imports

Non-associated onshore

Shale gas

2009

11%

1%

9% 7%

9%9%

20%14%

8%

8%

6%

46%

Alaska 1%

Tight gas28% 22%

AEO2011, April 2011


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Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed; industrial and

electric power use drives future demand growth

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

U.S. dry gas consumption


*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel.



Industrial*

Central electric power

Commercial

Residential Transportation**

35%

18%

14%

30%

3%

32%

21%

14%

30%

3%

AEO2011, April 2011


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A number of key economic and market drivers underpin natural

gas consumption growth

26

Sector TCF Gas

Consumption

Growth

(2009 2035)

Key Drivers

2009 2035

Industrial,includingcombined heat-and-power

7.4 9.3 25% +215% combined heat-and powergeneration; +30% output of gasintensive industry; lower naturalgas prices

Central electricpower

6.9 7.9 14% +30% electricity consumption;lower natural gas prices; offset by+75% renewable generation and+26% coal generation

Commercial 3.1 3.8 23% +37% commercial floorspace;

-4% energy intensityResidential 4.8 4.8


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Natural gas price projections are significantly lower than past

years due to an expanded shale gas resource base

27

natural gas spot price (Henry Hub)

2009 dollars per million Btu

Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011; EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2010; and EIA, An Updated AnnualEnergy Outlook 2009 Reference Case

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


Updated AEO2009

AEO2011

AEO2010

$9/MMBtu

$7/MMBtu

AEO2011, April 2011


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Oil and other liquid supply

28AEO2011, April 2011

Oil i i h R f i dil


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0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily;

the fullAEO2011 will include a wide range of oil prices

29

annual average price of low sulfur crude oil

real 2009 dollars per barrel



High Oil Price

Low Oil Price

AEO2011 Reference

AEO2011, April 2011


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Unconventional sources more than triple globally, but

conventional petroleum continues to comprise the vast majority

of liquids supply

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

global liquids production

million barrels per day



OPEC conventional

Non-OPEC conventional

Unconventional12%

47%

40%

39%

5%

56%

AEO2011, April 2011

U S i t f li id f l f ll d t i d d ti


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U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic

production including biofuels and greater fuel efficiency

31

U.S. liquid fuels consumption



0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

ProjectionsHistory

Natural gas plant liquids

Petroleum supply

Biofuels including imports

Net petroleum imports

2009

13%

11%

41%

32%

10%

52%

34%

4%

Liquids from coal 3%

AEO2011, April 2011

Bi f l t l li id d d il d ti k


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Biofuels, natural gas liquids, and crude oil production are key

sources of increased domestic liquids supply

32

U.S. liquid fuels



0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

2009

2035

Net product imports

Net crude oil imports

Natural gas plant liquids

Liquids from coalGulf of Mexico

Crude oil production

Biofuels (including net imports)

Refinery processing gain

Total consumption

AEO2011, April 2011

Bi f l f ll h t f th l i 2022 b t d th 36 billi


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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2009 2022 2035

Other Advanced

Biofuels fall short of the goal in 2022, but exceed the 36 billion

gallon RFS target by 2031

33

billions ethanol-equivalent gallons


Legislated RFS in 2022

RFS withadjustments under

CAA Sec.211(o)(7)

Biodiesel

Net imports

Cellulosic biofuels

Corn ethanol

AEO2011, April 2011

Ne light d t ehicle f el econom achie es almost 38 mpg


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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

New light duty vehicle fuel economy achieves almost 38 mpg

by 2035 in the Reference case

34

miles per gallon


2009 ProjectionsHistory

Summary of standards

2012-2016: 34.1 mpg CAFE average (based on NHTSAvehicle footprint sales distribution)

2020: 35 mpg by statute

2017-2025: Reference case does notinclude proposalplanned for September 2011

AEO2011, April 2011


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0

4

8

12

16

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Most transport fuel growth is in light and heavy duty vehicles

35

U.S. transportation energy consumption

million barrels per day oil equivalent


Rail

Air

ProjectionsHistory

Heavy-duty vehicles

Light-duty vehicles

Marine

2009

4%

67%

2%

10%

16%

64%

20%

9%

4%2%

AEO2011, April 2011

Efficiency improvements partially offset underlying drivers of


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Efficiency improvements partially offset underlying drivers of

growth in transportation services

36

* Equal to a 25% reduction in fuel use per mile. ** Equal to an 8% reduction in fuel use per mile.


2009 2035Growth

(2009-2035)

Light duty vehicles

Fuel consumption (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 8.9 10.2 14%

Number of licensed drivers (millions) 207 265 28%

Miles per licensed driver 13,100 15,300 17%

Efficiency of vehicle stock (mpg) 20.8 27.9 34%*

Heavy duty vehicles

Fuel consumption (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 2.2 3.2 47%

Manufacturing output (billion 2005 dollars) 4,197 6,770 61%

Number of freight trucks (millions) 8.7 16.6 90%

Miles per vehicle 23,700 20,200 -15%Efficiency of vehicle stock (mpg) 6.1 6.6 9%**

AEO2011, April 2011

Unconventional vehicles meet over 40% of U S light duty


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Unconventional vehicles meet over 40% of U.S. light-duty

vehicle sales in 2035

37

U.S. light car and truck salesmillions


0

5

10

15

20

2000 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Conventional gasoline

DieselGaseous and fuel cell

Mild hybrid electric

Hybrid electric

Plug-in hybrid and all-electric

E85 flex fuel

AEO2011, April 2011


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For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Documents

EIA AEO2011 Slides