BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    1/47

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    2/47

    2

    The information contained in this presentation may include statements whichconstitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S.

    Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange

    Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of 

    risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other

    forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered

    reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or

    may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations

    disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned

    that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance

    and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from

    those in the forward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not

    limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the

    company’s filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and

    specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which

    speak only for the date on which they are made.

    Disclaimer

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    3/47

    3

    Company Overview1Pulp and Paper Market2

    Financial and Operational Highlights3

    Agenda

    Final Remarks

    4

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    4/47

    4

    Company Overview

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    5/47

    5

    A Winning Player

    Port Terminal Pulp Unit

    Três Lagoas

    Santos

    AracruzPortocel

    Caravelas

    BelmonteVeracel

    Jacareí 

    Superior Asset Combination Main Figures – 4Q14 LTM

    Pulp capacity million tons 5,300

    Net revenues R$ billion 7.1

    Total Forest Base(1) thousand hectares 961

    Planted area(1) thousand hectares 560

    Net Debt R$ billion 7.6

    Net Debt/EBITDA (in Dollars)(2) X 2.4

    Net Debt/EBITDA (in Reais) X 2.7

    Source: Fibria

    (1) Including 50% of Veracel, excluding forest partnership areas and forest bases linked to the sales of Losango and forest assets in Southern Bahia State.(2) For covenants purposes, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is calculated in Dollars.

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    6/47

    6

    Fibria’s Units Industrial Capacity

    * Veracel is a joint venture between Fibria (50%) and Stora Enso (50%) and the total capacity is 1,120 thousand ton/year

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    7/47

    7

    Worldwide presence

    Strong global customer base

    Long-term relationships

    Focus on customers with stable business

    Customized pulp products and services

    Sound forestry and industrial R&D

    Focus on less volatile end-use markets such as tissue

    Efficient logistics set up

    Low dependence on volatile markets such as China

    Low credit risk

    100% certified pulp (FSC and PEFC/Cerflor)

    Sales Mix by End Use - Fibria

    Sales Mix by Region - Fibria

    Europe

    40%

    N.

    America

    27%

    Asia

    23%

    Other10%

    Region - 4Q14

    Tissue

    56% Printing &

    Writing

    25%

    Specialties

    19%

    End Use - 4Q14

    Highlights

    30%20%

    29% 29% 24%18%

    26% 26% 30% 22%28% 31% 30%

    19% 22%26% 27%

    37%46%

    46% 41%

    35% 44%

    43% 41% 36%42%

    43% 35% 36%46% 42%

    39% 40%

    22% 25%14% 20%

    31% 28%20% 23% 25% 26%

    21% 26% 26% 26% 27% 25% 23%

    11% 9% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 9% 10% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10%

    4Q101Q112Q11 3Q114Q111Q12 2Q123Q124Q12 1Q132Q133Q13 4Q131Q142Q14 3Q144Q14

    North America Europe Asia Other

    Fibria’s Commercial Strategy

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    8/47

    8

    (1) Controlling group(2) Free Float 40.14% + Treasury 0.06%

    VotorantimIndustrial S.A.

    (1)

    29.42%

    BNDESParticipações (1)

    30.38%

    FreeFloat (2)

    40.20%

    • Only 1 class of shares →100% voting rights

    100% tag along rights (Brazilian corporate law establishes 80%)

    • Board of Directors with minimum 20% independent members

    • Financial Statements in International Standards – IFRS

    • Adoption of Arbitration Chamber 

    • SEC Registered ADR Level III program

    • Indebtedness and Liquidity

    • Market Risk Management

    • Risk Management

    • Corporate Governance

    • Related Parties Transactions

    • Anti-Corruption

    • Information Disclosure

    • Securities Trading

    • Antitrust

    • Genetically Modified Eucalyptus

    Fiscal

    Council

    Board of

    Directors

    20% independentmembers

    Role of CEO andchairman is split

    Personnel andRemuneration

    Committee

    StatutoryAudit

    Committee

    Finance

    Committee

    Sustainability

    Committee

    Innovation

    Committee

    General

    Meeting

    Listed on Novo Mercado, highest CG level at BM&FBovespa: Policies approved by the Board of Directors:

    Shareholder Structure and Corporate Governance

    30%independent

    members

    100%independent

    members

    50% independent

    members

    45% independent

    members-

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    9/47

    9Pulp and Paper Market

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    10/4710

    Expected scenario for 2013 in Nov’2012

    BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES

    Realized scenario in 2013

    1,270

    100

    -155

    -410

    -140

    -60

    605

    1,310

    Eldorado

    UPM Fray Bentos

    Sappi Cloquet

    Jari

    Cellulose du Maroc

    Sodra Tofte

    Net

    BEKP demand growth*

    1,275

    320

    555

    -155

    -410

    1,585

    1,080

    Eldorado

    Suzano Maranhão

    Montes del Plata

    Sappi Cloquet

    Jari

    Net

    BEKP demand growth*

    DELAYED

    Unexpected

    Closures

    In 2013, we stressed the difference between the expected scenario

    and the realized one...

    *Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2012 *Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp September 2014

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    11/4711

    As a result we had better prices than expected

    Consultants: Hawkins Wright, RISI and Brian McClay (published in the end 2012 for 2013 prices)

    BHKP Delivered to Europe (USD/t)

    765

    772

    767

    784

    772

    788

    814

    795

    770

    791

    740

    750

    760

    770

    780

    790

    800

    810

    820

    1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 Annual 2013

    Consultants average for 2013 Realized PIX/FOEX price

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    12/4712

    BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES

    The “better than expected scenario” happened again last year...

    Realized scenario in 2014

    1,770

    -105

    -85

    -65

    -120

    -70

    100

    235

    550

    1,100

    230

    BEKP demand growth

    Net

    Ence Huelva

    Old Town

    APRIL Rizhao

    Sodra Tofte

    Sappi Cloquet

    UPM

    Oji Nantong*

    Montes del Plata

    Suzano Maranhão

    Eldorado

    1,7341,380

    2,660

    -120

    -115

    560

    830

    1,275

    230

    BEKP demand growth**

    Net

    Sodra Tofte

    Sappi Cloquet

    Oji Nantong*

    Montes del Plata

    Suzano Maranhão

    Eldorado

    Expected scenario for 2014 in Dec’13

    More unexpectedmill closures

    *Partly integrated to existing PM**Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp November 2013

    *Approved license only for 500,000 t/y

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    13/4713

    … and also better prices than initially projected

    BHKP Delivered to Europe (USD/t)

    782

    737

    696

    718

    733

    768

    752

    729

    734

    746

    640

    660

    680

    700

    720

    740

    760

    780

    800

    1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Annual 2014

    Consultants average for 2014 Realized PIX/FOEX price

    Consultants: Hawkins Wright, RISI and Brian McClay (published in the end 2013 for 2014 prices)

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    14/4714

    Then, what about 2015?

    1005

    -315

    -65

    115

    85

    30

    200

    750

    265

    750

    400

    BEKP demand growth**

    Net

    Possible closures*

    Ence Huelva

    April Rizhao

    Sappi Cloquet

    Old Town (Expera)

    Portucel Cacia

    Eldorado

    CMPC Guaiba II

    Oji Nantong

    Montes del Plata

    Suzano Maranhão

    -400 to -800

    1,415 to 1,815

    Expected scenario for 2015 in Dec’14 Realized scenario in 2015

    ?

    BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES

    *Based on annual closures average (400,000 to 800,000 t/yr)**Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp September 2014

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    15/4715

    Shipments of Eucalyptus Pulp (1)

    (1) Source: PPPC World 20 – December/2014

    Global Market BEKP Demand

    Paper Capacity increase in China

    (1) Source: PPPC World 20 – December/2014

    2013 2014 2015 Total

    FORECAST REALIZEDPREVIOUS

    FORECAST

    LATEST

    FORECAST

    PREVIOUS

    FORECAST

    LATEST

    FORECASTPREVIOUS LATEST

    Woodfree -25 199 - 256 550 760 525 1,215

    Tissue 1,184 833 1,518 1,390 903 727 3,605 2,950

    Cartonboard 2,428 2,128 1,300 2,100 300 380 4,028 4,608

    Total  3,587 3,160 2,818 3,746 1,753 1,867 8,158 8,773

    Source: Fibria and Independent Consultants

    2014 vs. 2013

    +1,734 kt

    +92 kt

    +386kt+717 kt

    +537 kt

    11%

    5%

    6%

    20%13%

    Total North

    America

    Western

    Europe

    China Others

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

    Days of Supply 

    Dec/14: 36 days

    Nov./14: 38 days | Dec./13: 38 days

    Producer Inventories – Hardwood (1)

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    16/4716

    Global Market Pulp Demand

    Demand growth rate

    Hardwood (BHKP) vs. Softwood (BSKP) (000 ton)

    Hardwood demand will continue to increase at a faster pace than Softwood

    Source: PPPC

    Source: PPPC. Excludes Sulphite and UKP market pulp.

    NBSK vs. BHKP - Prices(1)

    (1) Source: FOEX |Average spread in the last 5 years.

    0

    5.000

    10.000

    15.000

    20.000

    25.000

    30.000

    35.000

       1   9   9   8

       1   9   9   9

       2   0   0   0

       2   0   0   1

       2   0   0   2

       2   0   0   3

       2   0   0   4

       2   0   0   5

       2   0   0   6

       2   0   0   7

       2   0   0   8

       2   0   0   9

       2   0   1   0

       2   0   1   1

       2   0   1   2

       2   0   1   3

       2   0   1   4

       2   0   1   5

       2   0   1   6

       2   0   1   7

       2   0   1   8

    Hardwood Softwood

    2013 - 2018 CAGR:

    Hardwood: +2.8%

    Softwood: +0.7%

    000 ton 1998 2008 2018Growth1998-2008

    Growth2008-2018

    Hardwood 15.0 24.5 32.8 63% 34%

    Eucalyptus 6.0 14.2 23.4 137% 63%

    Softwood 17.6 21.6 24.8 23% 15%

    Market Pulp 32.6 46.1 57.1

    Paper Production – Runnability with BHKP

    Source: RISI conference, August 2014.

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    1100

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    Spread Average spread BHKP NBSK

    Average spread:

    US$ 109

    Spread Dec./14:

    US$191

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    17/4717

    Technical Age and Scale in the Market Pulp IndustryFurther closures are expected due to lack of adequate investments in the industry…

    Hardwood (BHKP) Market Pulp Softwood (BSKP) Market Pulp

    STRONGWeighted average

    technical age 12.3 years

    Weighted average

    capacity 1,277,000 t/a

    Aracruz 

    Três Lago as 

    Veracel 

    Jacareí 

    0

    500

    1.000

    1.500

    2.000

    2.500

    3.000

    051015202530

    PM Capacity, 1000 t/a

    Technical Age, years

    WEAK

    STRONGWeighted average

    technical age 21 years

    Weighted average

    capacity 527,000 t/a

    North American Pulp Mills Other Pulp Mills Closures Grade Switch On & Off 

    WEAK0

    500

    1.000

    1.500

    2.000

    2.500

    3.000

    0102030

    PM Capacity, 1000 t/a

    Technical Age, years

    More than 7.7 million tons of capacity above 25 years and with annual capacity below 500,000 t/y.

    Old

    Town

    Ence

    Huelva

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    18/4718

    Source: PPPC and Fibria

    Closures of Hardwood Capacity Worldwide

    (000 ton)

    Capacity closures DO happen

    -910

    -85

    -1,260

    -1,180

    -540-500

    -105

    -1,085

    -830

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-2016 Eas of Dec.14

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    19/4719

    Total Cash Cost of BHKP delivered to Europe (US$/t)

    Source: Hawkins Wright (Outlook for Market Pulp, December 2014) | Fibria’s 4Q14 considering a FX of R$/US$2.54. | “Brazil ex-Fibria” 3Q14 considering FX of R$/US$2.27.

    Gray bar includes cash expenses as Interest, CAPEX, SG&A and Taxes (Source: RISI and Fibria).

    4Q14 net price:

    US$ 552/t

    W/K

    Among the industry’s lowest cash cost producers

    498 508456 468

    420 404 424 424 406

    342315 311 297

    235186

    71 46

    69 41

    86 121 34 3841

    4855

    38 67

    111

    61

    51

    119

    3918

    Cash Cost (US$/t) Delivery (US$/t)

    SG&A

    Capex

    Interest

    Income Tax

    Interest

    Capacity

    (k tons):

    1,775 705 580 570 1,660 1,055 2,315 335 545 330 7,480 = 31,4053,790 1,015 3,950 5,300

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    20/4720

    Gross capacity addition should not be counted as the only factor

    influencing pulp price volatility….(1)

    List Price bottoming at US$650/t in 2011 and US$724/t in 2014

       C   a   p   a   c   i   t   y    (   0   0   0

       t   o   n    )

    0,0

    0,2

    0,4

    0,6

    0,8

    1,0

    1,2

    1,4

    1,6

    1,8

    2,0

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1.000

    2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    Valdivia

    APP

    Hainan

    Veracel Nueva Aldea

    Santa Fé

    Mucuri

    Fray

    Bentos

    Kerinci

    PL3

    Três

    Lagoas

    Rizhao

    APP Guangxi

    Chenming

    Zhanjiang

    EldoradoMontes

    del Plata

    Maranhão

    Guaíba II

    APP South

    Sumatra(2)

    Klabin

    Oji

    Nantong

       B   H   K   P

       p   r   i   c   e   s  -   C   I   F   E   u   r   o   p   e

        (   U   S    $    /   t   o   n    )

    (1) Source: Hawkins Wright , Poyry and Fibria Analysis. Pulp price estimates according to Hawkins Wright (Dec/14), Brian McClay (Jan/14) and RISI (Dec/14)

    (2) Partially integrated production

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    21/4721

    Lowest volatility among commodities

    Change 2014 vs. 2013(3)

    Commodities Historical Volatility (US$)(1)

    (1) Since 2009 | (2) Except Iron Ore (Average of: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP) and LME Metals | (3) As of December, 31st

    Sugar Iron Ore Crude Oil SoyLME

    Metals

    Ibovespa Cattle Pulp BHKP

    Commoditiy Spot Price -12% -47% -46% -22% - - 23% -3%

    S&P Sector Index(2) -12% -48% -43% -21% -8% -3% 21% -

    FIBR3|FBR - - - - - - - 18% | 4%

    35%30%

    26%23% 23% 21%

    15%

    6%

    Sugar WTI CrudeOil

    Soy LME Metals Ibovespa Iron Ore Cattle FOEX PIXBHKP

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    22/4722Financial and Operational Highlights

    N t l t i it h t i k i it f hi h th

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    23/4723

    No exposure to eletricity shortage risks, in spite of which the

    company has benefited from the sale of its surplus energy

    466 472

    26

    8

    ( 22 ) ( 7 ) 1

    4Q13 Wood FX Utilities Energy

    Consumption

    Others 4Q14

    + 1.3%

    Improved results boosted by energy sales and operational efficiency.

    (Utilities: 4Q14: R$37/t I 3Q14: R$34/t I 4Q13: R$16/t)

    C h P d ti C t l i f 3 7% th t

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    24/47

    Fibria Cash Production Cost (1) (R$/ton)

    Consistently

    controlling the

    production

    cash cost at alevel below

    the inflation

    pace.

    24

    Cash Production Cost saw a annual increase of 3.7% over the past

    6 years

    432 448

    471 473

    505 519

    2009 (2) 2010 (2) 2011 2012 2013 2014

    CAGR: + 3.7%

    (1) Constant Currency (2) Excludes Conpacel

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    25/4725

    2,791

    3,530

    163

    851

    (112)

    (696)

    (504)

    (380)

    (1,874)

    141(54)

    Adjusted

    EBITDA

    Befiex Other non-

    reccuring exp.

    /non-cash

    EBITDA FX Debt /

    Hedge

    Early prepaid

    debt

    Net Interest Deprec.,

     amortiz.and

     depletion

    Taxes Others Net Income

    Hedge

    FX Debt∆

    Non-recurring

    effects(1) Includes other exchange rate/monetary variations and other financial income/expenses.

    Net Results (R$ million) – 2014

    (1)

    Mandatory dividends of R$37 million.

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    26/4726

    Free Cash Flow (1) – 2014

    R$ million

    (1)

    2,791

    636989

    ( 1.591 )( 411 ) ( 136 ) ( 29 ) 12

    353

    Adjusted

    EBITDA

    Capex Interest

    (paid/received)

    Working

     Capital

    Taxes Others Free Cash Flow 4Q14 receivables Free Cash Flow

    (Pro-forma)

    Higher sales volume (+107 kt);

    Change in cliente mix, with lower receivables forfaiting transactions;

    FX effect.

    Modernization (trucks);

    R&D;

    TLS 2 (feasibility study).

    2014

    Capex includes investment in modernization and higher % of third-party wood, decreasing as from 2016;

    Debt service reduction;

    Potencial improvement on working capital (customers and suppliers).

    2015

    (1) Does not include: asset sales, expenses on bonds repurchase and tax credits from the BEFIEX program.

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    27/4727

    FX and Pulp Price explain 80% of Fibria’s EBITDA Margin

    (1) Excludes Conpacel | (2) 2014 year end market consensus | (3) According to Focus Report (Brazilian Central Bank – Feb. 6th, 2015) | (4) According to Poyry – full cost estimate - includes Manufacturing+ Delivered costs to Rotterdam + Depreciation + ROCE of 9%

    Each 10% depreciation of the Real increases EBITDA by approx. R$600 million

    1,522

    2,526

    1,964 2,253

    2,796 2,791

    2009 (1) 2010 (1) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    2.001.76

    1.671.95

    2.102.29 2.73

    (3)

    Exchange Rate

     Average (R$/US$)

    EBITDA Margin

    EBITDA (R$ million)

    29%40% 34% 36% 40% 38%

    Marginal producer cost 

    (US$/t)(4)

    Fibria net pulp price

    (US$/t) Market

    Consensus

    456

    670639

    581610 572 564

    660627

    676657

    680 676

    912

    1,1791,067 1,133

    1,281 1,310

    1,540

    Fibria net pulp price

    (R$/t)

    Capital Structure: Fibria has achieved the lowest leverage ratio among

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    28/4728

    Net Debt/EBITDA (x)(1)

    Fibria Arauco CMPC Klabin Suzano

    S&P BB+/Positive BBB-/Stable BBB+/Negative BBB-/Negative BB/Stable

    Moody’s Ba1/Positive Baa3/Stable Baa3/Negative - Ba2/Stable

    Fitch BBB-/Stable BBB/Stable BBB+/Stable BBB-/Negative BB/Stable

    (1) Fibria’s historical data in BRL. | (2) Market consensus.

    Capital Structure: Fibria has achieved the lowest leverage ratio among

    its Latin American peers

    2.4 2.3

    2.72.6

    4.84.5 4.5

    4.2

    1.7 1.7

    2.4

    2.72.9 3.13.1

    3.73.6 3.7 3.6

    14.813.2

    11.711.1

    4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 2014

    Fibria Suzano Klabin CMPC Arauco Eldorado

    2

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    29/4729

    Indebtdeness

    2.82.7 2.7

    2.62.5

    2.49,773

    8,574 8,327

    4,172 3,498 3,135

    Dec/13 Sep/14 Dec/14

    R$ US$

    7,8497,313 7,549

    3,351 2,984 2,842

    Dec/13 Sep/14 Dec/14

    R$ US$

    Net Debt/EBITDA (US$)

    Debt Amortization Schedule (US$ Million) Average Tenor (months) and Cost of Debt* in US$ (% p.a.)

    293

    600

    893

    363

    223

    364

    459

    632

    375

    93

    223

    600

    Liquidity 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

    Pre-payment BNDES ECN ACC/ACE Voto IV Bonds

    (cash)

    (revolver)

    5255 55

    Dec/13 Sep/14 Dec/14

    Interest (US$)

    - 25%

    Net Debt/EBITDA (R$)

    (*) Considering the portion of debtin reais fully adjusted by the market swap curves at the end of 

    each period..

    4.3

    3.7

    3.4

    Net Debt (Million)

    61

    50 44

    Total Debt and Interest Expenses (Million)

    A consistent and disciplined approach focused on reducing debt

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    30/47

    30

    A consistent and disciplined approach focused on reducing debt

    and its cost

    Debt (US$ million) x Leverage (US$) Interest (US$ million) x Cost of Debt (US$)

    Free Cash FlowIncrease

    InterestReduction

    Cost of DebtReduction

    This dynamics

    creates a virtuouscycle

    8.6

    3.1

    6.3

    2.8

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Gross Debt Net Debt

    7.5

    4.1 4.23.3

    2.6 2.5473

    414 408350

    268200

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    6.3 5.95.5

    5.2 4.63.4*

    (*) Considering the portion of debtin reais fully adjusted by the market swap curves of Dec. 31, 2014.

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    31/47

    31

    New issuance better priced than Investment Grade issuers

    Rating Maturity Volume T-Spread Coupon X Book  

    Fibria Ba1 / BBB- / BB+ 2024 US$600 mn 275 bps 5.25% 11.5x

    Braskem Baa3/BBB-/BBB- 2024 US$500 mn 340 bps 6.45% 11.0x

    Petrobras Baa1/BBB/BBB 2024 US$2.5 bn 350 bps 6.28% 3.3x

    Klabin BBB-/BBB- 2024 US$500 mn 269 bps 5.25% 6.0x

    Samarco BBB-/BBB 2024 US$500 mn 288 bps 5.375% 3.6x

    Rating Maturity Volume G-Spread Yield

    Fibria Ba1 / BBB- / BB+ 2024 US$600 mn 337 5,14%

    Braskem Baa3/BBB-/BBB- 2024 US$500 mn 483 6,58%

    Klabin BBB-/BBB- 2024 US$500 mn 373 5,51%

    Odebrecht Baa3/BBB-/BBB 2023 US$800 mn(1) 474 6,44%

    Petrobras Baa1/BBB/BBB 2024 US$2.5 bn 546 7,22%

    Gerdau Baa3/BBB-/BBB- 2023 US$750 mn 361 5,31%

    Samarco BBB-/BBB 2024 US$ 500 mn 402 5,69%

    (1)

    Outstanding: US$102 mn

    Secondary Market - As of Feb. 06, 2015

    Issuance

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    32/47

    32

    …and performing better than Investment Grade issuers

    Source: Bloomberg - Feb. 06, 2015.

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    650

    02/05/14 02/06/14 02/07/14 02/08/14 02/09/14 02/10/14 02/11/14 02/12/14 02/01/15 02/02/15

       G    S

       p   r   e   a    d

    Fibria 2024 Braskem 2024 Klabin 2024 Odebrecht 2023 Petrobras 2024

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    33/47

    33

    Fibria has the simplest and most transparent call in the industry

    Negative Neutral Positive

    Pulp supply   ✔

    Closures/conversions   ✔

    Inefficient capacities in China ✔

    Demand   ✔

    ‣ Fiber and grade substitution   ✔

    Tissue   ✔‣China   ✔

    Pulp price   ✔

    Brazil GDP   ✔

    Energy crisis   ✔

    FX   ✔

    Capex inflation   ✔

    Cost inflation   ✔

    Rating   ✔

    Tax   ✔

    Corporate Governance   ✔

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    34/47

    34Final Remarks

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    35/47

    35

    Max Value Project – Zero base budgeting

    Each expense and capex

    need to be explained, not

    only the additional ones

    ▶ Budget developed primarily based on input

    consumption indicators

    ▶ Only one discussion cycle, initially based on

    budgetary guidelines

    ▶ Individual discussion for each expenditure package,

    including Sustaining CAPEX and OPEX

    ▶ Discussion details based on the materiality of the

    expense within the package

    ▶ Robust basis increasing the visibility of the rationale

    for the proposed budget amounts

    Zero Base Budgeting encourages a questioning and

    challenging attitude of the status quo

    The assumption for the new process is that the budget for next year is zero.

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    36/47

    36

    Max Value Project – Zero base budgeting

    33%

    100%

    43%

    23%

    Forestry Industrial Logistics/Other Total

    15%

    30%

    50%

    65%

    75%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

    Note: (1) Technical Limit potential reflecting 2013 conditions; (2) Coverage of expenses with established Technical Limits (e.g. 374/3233=12%).Source: Fibria, ZBB team analysis.

    Value achievement share by category NPV expected curve

    Approx. R$1.5 billion NPV

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    37/47

    37

    Max Value Project – A hidden asset value

    Market Price of own Land as of Sep/14:

    R$3.9 billion

    Fibria’s

    Owned Land

    Ha

    (‘000)

    Book Value

    R$/ha

    Market Value

    R$/ha

    Total 491 2,535 7,964

    Land sold in 2013 – The Parkia Deal:

    - 206k ha;

    - Up to R$1.65 billion (~R$8k per ha).

    Book Value of own Land as of Sep/14:

    R$1.2 billionMarket Price of own Land as of Dec/14:

    R$3.9 billion

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    38/47

    38

    Max Value Project – Turning areas per hectare into square meter

    • The targeted area represents only 0.6% of the land owned by Fibria;

    • Real estate thinking: minimum value creation of R$500 million NPV.

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    39/47

    39

    PULP

    - Growth with discipline

    - Best portfolio of projects

    BIO-ENERGY

    - Complementary to pulp

    - Ensyn

    INDUSTRY

    CONSOLIDATION ?

    OTHER OPPORTUNITIES

    - Portocel

    - Land and forest

    PotentialGrowth

    Prospects

    Fibria is seeking value creation for its shareholders with capital discipline

    The maturity of synergies captured since Fibria’s creation improved its

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    40/47

    40

    593 593 605 584648 651

    900826

    766678 699

    2009* 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014

    4,600

    5,0545,184

    5,299 5,271 5,274

    2009* 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014

    The maturity of synergies captured since Fibria s creation improved its

    operating indicators…

    +15%

    PRODUCTION VOLUME (000 t)BEST PRACTICES AND OPERATING STABILITY

    Historical Value Inflation Effect**

    -21%

    CASH COST (R$/ton)

    Historical Value Inflation Effect**

    -21%

    SG&A (R$ million)STRUCTURE AND PROCESS SIMPLIFICATION

    1,522

    2,5261,964

    2,253

    2,796 2,791

    2009* 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014

    29%

    40%34% 36%

    40% 39%

    EBITDA (R$ million) - EBITDA MARGIN (%)

    * Excludes Conpacel | ** IPCA index considered to calculate the inflation effect.

    432 448471 473 505

    519

    656 624 596549 545

    2009* 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    41/47

    41Back up

    Fib i ’

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    42/47

    42

    Fibria’s tax structure

    Tax benefits (R$)

    Fiscal - annual adjustment

    Benefit Amount Maturity

    Goodwill(Aracruzacquisition)

    Annual tax deduction:R$89 million (tax)

    Remaining Balance Dec/14:R$1.1 billion (base)

    2018

    Forestry Capex inMato Grosso doSul state

    2014 tax deduction related todepletion: R$37 million

    Undefined

    Tax loss carry forward and tax credits

    Benefit Amount

    Tax losscarryforward

    Balance up to Dec. 14: R$451million (base)

    Accumulated taxcredits

    Balance Dec./2014:- PIS/COFINS: R$570 million

    - Withholding tax (IR and CSLL):R$681 million

    - Befiex: R$455 million

    - Reintegra: R$37 million

    Tax payment (cash basis)

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    R$ 7 million R$ 16 million R$ 4 million R$ 15 million R$ 31 million R$ 29 million

    Due to productivity gains in its forests, Fibria had the opportunity to

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    43/47

    43

    p y g pp y

    explore this new ownership model

    MAI* Pulp:(adt/ha/year)

    10.6 10.9

    12.1

    15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

    FIBRIA’S GAINS IN IMACEL DUE TO INVESTMENTS IN BIOTECHNOLOGY (TONS OF PULP/HA/YEAR)

    2012 field trials = 11.9

    Conservative assumption

    *MAI: Mean annual increment

    Actions:• Genetic improvement

    • Excellence in forestry management

    • Superior industrial efficiency

    L d hi iti

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    44/47

    44

    Leadership position

    (1) Fiber Consumption, Recycled Fiber and Pulp: RISI | Market Pulp, Hardwood and Eucalyptus: PPPC Global 100 Report December 2014

    Recycled Fiber

    238 million t

    46% 54%

    59%

    18% 82%

    59% 41%

    41%

    33% 67%

    26%74%

    Fiber Consumption

    406 million t

    Pulp

    168 million t

    Chemical

    138 million t

    Mechanical

    30 million t

    Integrated Mills

    82 million t

    Market Pulp

    56 million t

    Hardwood

    30 million t

    Other Eucalyptus

    Pulp producers:

    15 million t

    Softwood/Other

    26 million t

    Acacia/Other

    10 million t

    Eucalyptus

    20 million t

    Industry Outlook(1)

    Supply structural changes puts pressure on the industry

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    45/47

    45

    Supply structural changes puts pressure on the industry

    MARKET PULP CAPACITY RANKING 2014 (000T) MAIN PROJECTS

    Project Country Capacity Timing Fiber Status

    CMPC Guaíba II Brazil 1.3 Mt 2Q2015 BEKP Confirmed

    Klabin Paraná Brazil 1.5 Mt 2Q2016BEKP/

    BSKP/Fluff Confirmed

    APP South Sumatra Indonesia 2.0 Mt 1Q2017 BHKP Confirmed

    Fibria Três Lagoas II Brazil 1.75 Mt - BEKP Unconfirmed

    COST CURVE EVOLUTION

       U   S   D    /   A    d   t ,   2   0   1   3   c   o   s   t    l   e   v   e    l

    Cumulative Capacity Million t/a

    Cost position

    of marginal

    producer

    Source: Hawkins Wright , Poyry and Fibria Analysis (as of Dec. 2014).

    0 2000 4000 6000

    ENCE

    Canfor

    Resolute Forest

    Sodra

    IP

    Domtar

    Mercer

    Eldorado

    IlimWeyerhaeuser

    Stora Enso

    Metsa Group

    Paper Excellence

    Georgia Pacific

    UPM-Kymmene

    CMPC

    Suzano

    AraucoAPRIL

    Fibria

    Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (BSKP)

    Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp (BHKP)

    Unbleached Kraft Pulp (UKP)

    Mechanical Pulp (MP)

    Benefiting From China’s Growth

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    46/47

    46

    World Tissue Consumption, 1991-2013 (3)

    Per Capita Consumption of Tissue by World Region (3)China's Share of Market Pulp (2)

    24

    1515

    12

    7 65

    1

    N.

    America

    West

    Europe

    Japan Oceania East

    Europe

    LatAm China Africa

    10% 10%12%

    14%

    21%

    17%

    22%23% 23% 23%

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Eucalyptus Hardwood Total % Compared to the global Market Pulp

    8.298

    3.500

    2.039 2.292

    245 161 60

    8.772

    4.246

    2.154 2.136

    162 59 15

    BHKP Total Latin

    America

    Indonesia Others* USA Canada Western

    Europe

    2013 2014Latin America is the

    leading exporter of BHKP

    to China, accounting to

    approximately 48% of

    China's total imports in

    2014.

    (Kg/capita/year)

    (million t)(‘000s t) (kg/person/year)

    Between 2005 and 2014,

    the Chinese market share

    of eucalyptus shipments

    increased by 19 p.p. (total

    market pulp: + p.p.)

    * includes Russia, China, Thailand and New Zealand.

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    1991 1996 2001 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    N.America W.Europe E.Europe L.America

    Middle East Japan China Asia FEOceania Africa

    LTM Growth

    Rate +4.2%

    Benefiting From China s Growth

    China’s Hardwood Imports of BHKP by Country (1)

    (1) PPPC – Pulp China

    (2) PPPC – W20. Coverage for chemical market pulp is 80% of world capacity(3) RISI

    (million t)

    Global Paper Consumption

  • 8/9/2019 BTG Pactual XVI CEO Conference Brasil 2015

    47/47

    Global Paper Consumption

    1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Developed Markets Emerging Markets

    1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    Developed Markets Emerging Markets

    CAGR 1996 – 2006

    Developed Markets: + 1.7%

    Emerging Markets : + 6.0%

    85,291

    117,611

    15,548

    37,474

    P&W

    Consumption

    (000 tons)(1)

    Tissue

    Consumption

    (000 tons)(1)

    114,507

    CAGR 2007 – 2016

    Developed Markets: - 4.0%

    Emerging Markets : + 4.1%

    CAGR 1996 – 2006

    Developed Markets: + 2.4%

    Emerging Markets : + 6.9%

    CAGR 2007 – 2016

    Developed Markets: + 1.4%

    Emerging Markets : + 6.7%

    26,877